US - Israel - Iran War

Do propaganda within limits. I do not know of a single 'rational' Iranian who will agree with this statement. Source: BBC news.

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If they make a implosion uranium bomb like China then they have a chance of having a usable nuclear weapon though this is unlikely imo. If they make a crude gun type uranium bomb which Iran can do imo in literal days, then even if they test it, they cannot make it deliverable by missiles. And we all know Iran ain't stupid enough to use F14 or F4 as nuclear delivery vehicles lol.
 
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Iran attacked the US military base Al-Udeid in Qatar with Ghadr-H ballistic missiles, the operation was called "Good News of Victory". It is worth noting that the US was warned about the missile attack by Iran, this was reported in Washington. The Qatari Ministry of Defense stated that air defense systems successfully repelled the missile attack on the Al-Udeid air base in Doha. Qatar used the Patriot and THAAD air defense systems of American manufacture to repel the attack, you can see their work in the video.

 
Not really China has made a great deal of progress in both tracking stealth aircraft and also in developing SAMs that can actually engage them.

To the point that USAF conceded it cannot fly its stealth planes unmolested over China.
Unmolested, never.
But if USA agree to spent billions for 100+ B21 it's not without some good reasons. They are THE specialist in stealthy bomber.
If it is as serious as the Ormuz strait blocade....
 
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Footage of the fall of an Israeli Hermes-900 tactical UAV shot down by Iranian air defense has been published. The Hermes-900 UAV was shot down near the city of Khorramabad, the administrative center of the Lorestan province. This is the third Hermes-900 UAV shot down in Iran. The Hermes-900 UAV was developed by the Israeli company Elbit Systems in 2011. Drones of this type are equipped with satellite communication systems, optical-electronic surveillance systems and other components for reconnaissance. It is possible to install strike weapons. The take-off weight of the Hermes-900 UAV is up to 900 kg, the payload weight is 300 kg. The drone's flight speed is up to 220 km / h at altitudes of up to 9150 meters. The flight range of the Hermes-900 UAV is up to 1500 kilometers, the duration is up to 36 hours. The price of the Hermes-900 UAV is about 25 million dollars.

 
The Ayatollahs and the IRGC can only lick their wounds. An absolute disaster for them.

The IRGC's capabilities have taken a severe hammering. The regime will suffer tremendously economically. To tighten their grip on power and stifle dissent, the Ayatollahs will become even more oppressive and further damage Iran. And the intelligentsia will leave in droves.

Had there been a regime change, then Iran would have rebuilt and eventually surpassed Israel even though US would have ensured its subservience. This recuperation of Iran is unacceptable to Israel.

Hence it suits Israel very well to go for a ceasefire now after dealing such devastating blows to its arch rival while also allowing the regime to linger on.
 
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Iranian Missile Strikes on Israel in 12 Day War:


Although the Israeli government imposed strict censorship on reporting or publishing footage of the missile attacks, a growing number of strongly corroborating sources have indicated that the fallout form the attacks has far exceeded prior Western and Israeli expectations.


A list of some of the most high profile targets successfully hit by Iranian missiles have included Haifa Port, the Haifa Oil Refinery, Ben Gurion Airport, the Weizmann Institute of Science and Technology, Ben Gurion University, the headquarters of the defence firm Rafael, the Israel Nuclear Research Centre in Tel Aviv, and various strategic industrial targets in the city of Kiryat Gat.


Significant military targets include Israel’s equivalent to the Pentagon, the Kariya, as well as key defence ministry buildings and the headquarters of the intelligence agency Mossad. Other targets include Ovda Airbase, Nevatim Airbase where all Israeli F-35s are based, and other facilities hosting fixed wing aircraft across the country.


The severity of the damage, and the fast diminishing ability of Israeli missile defences to blunt the attacks, was a primary factor leading Tel Aviv to accept a ceasefire on June 24.


Commenting on the extent of the strikes at the subsequent NATO summit, President Donald Trump observed:
“Especially those last couple of days, Israel was hit really hard. Those ballistic missiles, boy they took out a lot of buildings.”


U.S. Used Up 15-20 Percent of its Global THAAD Anti-Missile Arsenal in Just 11 Days of Mid-Intensity Combat: Cost Over $800 Million


U.S. Army has been estimated to have consumed 15-20 of all munitions for its globally deployed arsenal of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) long range anti-missile systems, after deployment to support Israeli air defences during the country’s 11 days of hostilities with Iran.


Presuming at a conservative estimate that the filmed launches from THAAD batteries accounted for 50-66 percent of total launches, total expenditure of interceptors amounted to approximately 60-80 interceptors during the 11 day conflict.


With each THAAD interceptor launch costing an estimated $12-15 million, air defence operations using the system deployed in Israel cost an estimated $810 million to $1.215 billion.


The expenditure of this many interceptors represents 15-20 percent of the entire U.S. Army’s arsenal, which has significant implications far beyond the Middle East, and particularly in the Pacific.


Had Iran launched more intensive missile attacks, including using more missile with multiple warheads, or had it sustained bombardment beyond the 11 day conflict, the THAAD system in Israel would have seen its ability to contribute to air defence operations rapidly diminish.

Food For Thought : If this is the kind of damage Iran with its not so sophisticated BMs with MaRV & CMs are capable of in spite of the most sophisticated BMD system guarding their skies, what exactly are we up against when we go head on with China can be imagined?!

Granted India's no Israel in terms of depth but that's part of my assessment - a relatively smaller area with a high concentration of IADS should be relatively easier to defend against a concentrated attack . Or isn't it the case?

Guess it's time to revive the Sino Indian war gaming thread & hopefully this time we keep it factual, not full of bad faith posting & arguing for the sake of it, if you know what I mean.

@Rajput Lion
 






Food For Thought : If this is the kind of damage Iran with its not so sophisticated BMs with MaRV & CMs are capable of in spite of the most sophisticated BMD system guarding their skies, what exactly are we up against when we go head on with China can be imagined?!

Granted India's no Israel in terms of depth but that's part of my assessment - a relatively smaller area with a high concentration of IADS should be relatively easier to defend against a concentrated attack . Or isn't it the case?

Guess it's time to revive the Sino Indian war gaming thread & hopefully this time we keep it factual, not full of bad faith posting & arguing for the sake of it, if you know what I mean.

@Rajput Lion
These kind of BMs need new-gen BMD systems. Hopefully our BMD Phase II with AD-1 & 2 are good enough. Also that's why we're looking to procure S-500s too. GOI knows the threat China possesses with its large BM force.
 
Welcome back.

I don't know how well regime change will work in Iran. The Shia Pope does not have a direct political opponent and he controls the streets.

70% of Iran may be non-Muslim today, but they are just rabble. In Muslim societies, the majority has always been irrelevant, power is centered around small groups in their dystopian system, kinda like during the heydays of aristocracy.



There is little to worry on that front. We have decided to deal with Pak on our own terms. They are no longer a military threat, even their nukes are in the process of being neutered.

Iran has always been Pakistan's shield against Israel. And Israel hates the Islamic bomb. So no prizes for guessing who's next after Iran.
You're right. I too said in my post - Iran won't surrender.'. They will only cook themselves slowly. Sad for a country with such rich history.

Pak not being an important military threat does not mean any incapability to inflict serious damage. As out CDS said - both sides displayed rational behaviour during the conflict. Implicit in this statement is that Pak can cause a lot of damage to us.

Other than some parts of the Islamic world, no one likes Pak's nukes.