IAF to launch war games to hone fighting skills on Pakistan, China fronts [Ex Gagan Shakti]

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In a two front war the entire fleet of aircraft of IAF including fighters, helicopters and transport aircraft+Army Aviation+IN will need to fly over 10k sorties everyday for at least 10 days. My premise is based on the fact that we will need to fight an all out war with Pakistan with an aim to bring the war to a conclusion within 3-5 days. During this period China would have fully mobilised on our Northern Border and may even launch strikes against our forces. The period between 3-5th day will be crucial at the Chinese front. Once we are able to break Pakistan within 3-5 days, we will be able to transfer our forces to chinese border between 5th and 7th day and also launch counter attacks deep inside Tibet behind Chinese formations. The period between 7th to 10th day will help us gain some part of chinese territory which can be used as a bargain in case we lose some territory to them.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
In a two front war the entire fleet of aircraft of IAF including fighters, helicopters and transport aircraft+Army Aviation+IN will need to fly over 10k sorties everyday for at least 10 days. My premise is based on the fact that we will need to fight an all out war with Pakistan with an aim to bring the war to a conclusion within 3-5 days. During this period China would have fully mobilised on our Northern Border and may even launch strikes against our forces. The period between 3-5th day will be crucial at the Chinese front. Once we are able to break Pakistan within 3-5 days, we will be able to transfer our forces to chinese border between 5th and 7th day and also launch counter attacks deep inside Tibet behind Chinese formations. The period between 7th to 10th day will help us gain some part of chinese territory which can be used as a bargain in case we lose some territory to them.
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Assuming we haven't been decimated by them. We should never underestimate the enemy and in all likelihood if china will overtly go for an all out assault they will fire a barrage of missiles to overwhelm our defences and strike at our key infra before launching a ground assault. Day 5 to 7 may be too late for us
 
ghostwhowalks said:
Assuming we haven't been decimated by them. We should never underestimate the enemy and in all likelihood if china will overtly go for an all out assault they will fire a barrage of missiles to overwhelm our defences and strike at our key infra before launching a ground assault. Day 5 to 7 may be too late for us
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If China senses Pakistan's defeat,a more likely scenario is that China will dump Pakistan in order for better relationship with India
 
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Butter Chicken said:
If China senses Pakistan's defeat,a more likely scenario is that China will dump Pakistan in order for better relationship with India
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My dear Sir. If we really face a 2 front war then china and pak will attack simultaneously. Why will they wait for pak to attack first blowing fully well that india is vastly stinger than pak
 
ghostwhowalks said:
Assuming we haven't been decimated by them. We should never underestimate the enemy and in all likelihood if china will overtly go for an all out assault they will fire a barrage of missiles to overwhelm our defences and strike at our key infra before launching a ground assault. Day 5 to 7 may be too late for us
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In my opinion China will certainly mobilise on our borders but will wait to see how the Indo-Pak war is progressing. If they see Pak capitulating in first 3 days, they will not start a war with India. The aim of the chinese will be more to act as a deterrent tan to actually precipitate a war. Mobilisation of troops to the border is one thing and preparing them for a long sustained war is another. We can destroy key infrastructure in Tibet and building up area of China with our precision strikes which will help delay their mobilisation. Chinese believe in using others hand and others weapon to fight its war. Consider the benefits to China by remaining neutral in such a war. They will be able to reap much higher benefits from CPEC once India joins it and that will happen only when POK is part of India.

Butter Chicken said:
If China senses Pakistan's defeat,a more likely scenario is that China will dump Pakistan in order for better relationship with India
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Fully agree with you.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
In my opinion China will certainly mobilise on our borders but will wait to see how the Indo-Pak war is progressing. If they see Pak capitulating in first 3 days, they will not start a war with India. The aim of the chinese will be more to act as a deterrent tan to actually precipitate a war. Mobilisation of troops to the border is one thing and preparing them for a long sustained war is another. We can destroy key infrastructure in Tibet and building up area of China with our precision strikes which will help delay their mobilisation. Chinese believe in using others hand and others weapon to fight its war. Consider the benefits to China by remaining neutral in such a war. They will be able to reap much higher benefits from CPEC once India joins it and that will happen only when POK is part of India.


Fully agree with you.
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Since u are a veteran I will assume that your analysis will be more credible than mine and will be happy if this is the case. All I hope is that our strategy has adequately gamed a scenario where china and pak simultaneously open fronts. It may happen in PoK and askai chin or punjab ans arunachal or any other combo. When it happen we should be ready....That's all I hope for as a civvy
 
ghostwhowalks said:
Since u are a veteran I will assume that your analysis will be more credible than mine and will be happy if this is the case. All I hope is that our strategy has adequately gamed a scenario where china and pak simultaneously open fronts. It may happen in PoK and askai chin or punjab ans arunachal or any other combo. When it happen we should be ready....That's all I hope for as a civvy
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What I posted is what has been war gamed. Unless China and Pak join hands to start a war against India which will give time to PLA to position its forward ammo reserves well in advance.
 
ghostwhowalks said:
Since u are a veteran I will assume that your analysis will be more credible than mine and will be happy if this is the case. All I hope is that our strategy has adequately gamed a scenario where china and pak simultaneously open fronts. It may happen in PoK and askai chin or punjab ans arunachal or any other combo. When it happen we should be ready....That's all I hope for as a civvy
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China's policy is of Posturing and easy Gains

In case of a war with India they will loose a lot with a miniscule gain if any

And that will Hurt their image

Also it will give the US a chance to entrench itself within India

The Chinese have not shown any inclination to loose Soldiers for the Sake of China

If we are well prepared against China ; China will not interfere in an Indo Pak conflict
 
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STEPHEN COHEN said:
China's policy is of Posturing and easy Gains

In case of a war with India they will loose a lot with a miniscule gain if any

And that will Hurt their image(1)

Also it will give the US a chance to entrench itself within India(2)

The Chinese have not shown any inclination to loose Soldiers for the Sake of China(3)

If we are well prepared against China ; China will not interfere in an Indo Pak conflict(4)
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1. They don't give damn about what others think about them, more than China it is India which will lose its image if it mismanages during conflict.

2. US will side India, by selling more weapon at "premium price", remember we don't back them during their wars how are they supposed to help us, they'll only 'sell' weapons, I'll don't expect anything more than that, neither Russia is going to help us this time.

3. Thousands of Chinese pilots have lost their life flying junk fighters, nuke submarine and other lethal weapons. So this comment of yours is useless.

4. We will have to think like Israel, we need to learn a great deal from them in order to deal with such scenario. I think more than USA & Russia, Israel can help us a lot in term of tactics. Remember this tiny country has defeated 10 times larger enemy with ease, we are facing China & Pakistan which is around 3 times (2.5 China+0.5 Pakistan), that should be cake walk if we deploy our assets at right time & place.


But all in all, I don't see India & China in direct conflict both are led by responsible regimes which think about their economy first and then geo-politics, but it is always better to be prepared for worst case scenario.
 
Pundrick said:
1. They don't give damn about what others think about them, more than China it is India which will lose its image if it mismanages during conflict.

2. US will side India, by selling more weapon at "premium price", remember we don't back them during their wars how are they supposed to help us, they'll only 'sell' weapons, I'll don't expect anything more than that, neither Russia is going to help us this time.

3. Thousands of Chinese pilots have lost their life flying junk fighters, nuke submarine and other lethal weapons. So this comment of yours is useless.

4. We will have to think like Israel, we need to learn a great deal from them in order to deal with such scenario. I think more than USA & Russia, Israel can help us a lot in term of tactics. Remember this tiny country has defeated 10 times larger enemy with ease, we are facing China & Pakistan which is around 3 times (2.5 China+0.5 Pakistan), that should be cake walk if we deploy our assets at right time & place.


But all in all, I don't see India & China in direct conflict both are led by responsible regimes which think about their economy first and then geo-politics, but it is always better to be prepared for worst case scenario.
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China began to show its Aggressive intent towards India from 2009 onwards

That is because POST the 2008 economic crisis ; China's wealth and market became an engine for Global growth

That is when India realised the Certainity of a Two Front situation

Today after nearly Nine years we have Increased our capabilities a great deal
as compared to 2009

And now The chances of China attacking us have become even more remote
because there will be no easy gains for China

Chinese soldiers might have died Inside China but all that was Hushed up because of the Communist party

China is very Image conscious as well as status conscious

A war with India will Create a Formal Alliance in Asia against China

This is the last thing that they want

Our preparation is to convince China to Keep Quite when India and Pak go to war
 
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Since 100 cruise missiles could not do much damage to a tiny country like Syria, just wondering how many thousand cruise missiles will China need to cause significant damage to India. The other alternate is bombing missions by aircrafts taking off from airfields of Tibet which has it's own limitations due to high altitude.
Plus targeting airfields in Tibet with Brahmos is always possible and that will certainly slow down Chinese air attack, if not completely stop.

So in spite of it's numerical superiority, China still cannot achieve it's objective in offensive role.

It will be great if somebody can present an analysis with actual numbers and their impact on ground.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN said:
China's policy is of Posturing and easy Gains

In case of a war with India they will loose a lot with a miniscule gain if any

And that will Hurt their image

Also it will give the US a chance to entrench itself within India

The Chinese have not shown any inclination to loose Soldiers for the Sake of China

If we are well prepared against China ; China will not interfere in an Indo Pak conflict
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Very true. A bully is a bully till such time he can stay away from direct confrontation which might expose him as a much weaker person than what he claims himself to be. China will do well by staying away from anykind of direct confrontation with India as that will expose the hollowness of this self styled regional bully.
 
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ghostwhowalks said:
Since u are a veteran I will assume that your analysis will be more credible than mine and will be happy if this is the case. All I hope is that our strategy has adequately gamed a scenario where china and pak simultaneously open fronts. It may happen in PoK and askai chin or punjab ans arunachal or any other combo. When it happen we should be ready....That's all I hope for as a civvy
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Your position on this issue has merit.
China fighting wars with others weapons, on others shoulders and them generally being sneaky is a general accepted position and they are very well aware of this perception. Expect them to go against accepted wisdom.
china now has credible military muscle and its quite possible some in the govt. are itching to showcase their military superiority over a credible but weaker (in their opinion) power. Think of how a successful military intervention will actually establish its credentials and subjugate smaller rivals.
Think of it as how a successful war against India will decimate viets, phillipines, Japan et al without a fight.

The possibility of war with china is not in the realms of theory anymore. Its a real possibility and it will materialise when Chinese find India at its most vulnerable. India in a out right war with Pakistan is one such situation.

Quite possibly our military planners understand this position and have thus prepared and made provisions for a two front war.
India fighting a war ONLY with china does Chinese no favours and they know it. However, with India preoccupied on another front with Pakistan presents them with interesting opportunities, which I believe, they won't let go of.

To summarise

1. They will go against the generally accepted wisdom. So if you think they will count their pennies while we are at war with Pakistan. Good luck.
2. In a war with Pakistan, its a possibility that Chinese won't open another front. Its however miniscule.
3. In a war with china, consider it a given that Pakistanis will open another front, on cue from Chinese.

Navy will play a vital role in such a war. I hope they have kept adequate stock of torpedoes for their subs.
 
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Bali78 said:
Since 100 cruise missiles could not do much damage to a tiny country like Syria, just wondering how many thousand cruise missiles will China need to cause significant damage to India. The other alternate is bombing missions by aircrafts taking off from airfields of Tibet which has it's own limitations due to high altitude.
Plus targeting airfields in Tibet with Brahmos is always possible and that will certainly slow down Chinese air attack, if not completely stop.

So in spite of it's numerical superiority, China still cannot achieve it's objective in offensive role.

It will be great if somebody can present an analysis with actual numbers and their impact on ground.
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Ya as if you were there to see how well Syria actually defended itself against NATO missiles...
 
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