Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis

So let me get this straight... India for over a week was telegraphing that they were going to attack terrorist inside Pakistan proper (which is an act of war no matter how you spin it) knowing the PAF fighters would be flying CAP and READY but India had a moronic RoE at the time that even though they are hitting Pakistan itself and likely causing collateral damage they don't want to be painted as the aggressor by firing at PAF fighters? Really?

Indian missiles blowing up inside Pakistan already made you the aggressor in Pakistan's eyes so that excuse doesn't fly.

Lets just be honest here if true about this RoE it was a complete Fk up by IAF or incompetence for thinking this way if this was the RoE for the strike.
It might sound strange for person not familiar with India's foreign relations based on keeping the high moral ground. ( a relic of our past , non-violence ideology)

India on the first day we targeted terrorist & this was the message it wanted to send to global community. It was to distinguish between the pakistan state & terrorists ( sounds totally crazy) so as to send message that they are only fighting the terrorists. So no pakistani assets were attacked. Only when pakistan upped the ante, we retaliated with missiles. Obviously as element of surprise was lost, all that IAF could do is defend inside the border.

If we had declared a war , yes then we could hit them wherever we want.
 
So let me get this straight... India for over a week was telegraphing that they were going to attack terrorist inside Pakistan proper (which is an act of war no matter how you spin it) knowing the PAF fighters would be flying CAP and READY but India had a moronic RoE at the time that even though they are hitting Pakistan itself and likely causing collateral damage they don't want to be painted as the aggressor by firing at PAF fighters? Really?

Indian missiles blowing up inside Pakistan already made you the aggressor in Pakistan's eyes so that excuse doesn't fly.

Lets just be honest here if true about this RoE it was a complete Fk up by IAF or incompetence for thinking this way if this was the RoE for the strike.
Welcome to Indian democracy. There is a reason why we are the way we are. You don't understand how schizophrenic our government policy has been since our independence.
 
Yeah.

Based on what Vstol said, it seems to be centered around two points.

1. The Hammer range is insufficient, so Rafale had to sit out 'cause it could only attack across the border with SCALP.

2. He's questioned the survivability of SPECTRA. I have too for the F3R a few years ago, because DEDIRA was announced for 2020, so I have held the opinion that F3R from 2018 did not receive the full treatment. So it's possible DEDIRA is meant from F4 onwards, or just not yet fully integrated on the IAF's Rafales. Meaning, F3R has ACT, but at the F3+ level, which maintains a basic low RCS with weapons rather than frontal LO.

If the IAF continues to press for more Rafales after this, we will have the answer.


Those 3 Rafales (or aircraft) entered Pak airspace a week before all the action started. The incident had nothing to do with Sindoor.
Nah I'm talking the rafale strike package that used hammers to bomb jihadi sites inside PoK. The Pakistani awacs had been deployed all over the J&k, Punjab and Haryana sectors. The rafale must have dodged the initial barrage of pl-15's that were found in Hoshiarpur (150km from Bathinda). Most likely pl-15 might have damaged one of the rafale and engine might have failed. The plane was going to reach Bathinda AFS before which the pilot ejected. That's how tit might have been lost.
 
Is India playing Pokemon collecting different types of airframes?

Surely at some point it's enough. Too many different airframes way over complicates logistics.

Yep. The plan now is to keep the MKI, replacement from 2055. But settle for 3 new airframes; LCA, MRFA, and AMCA compared to the zoo we are today. This is the official IAF plan. And a new next gen jet will be taken up for delivery in the 2050s-60s, which they claim will be hypersonic, while at best maybe modernizing the AMCA into an AMCA NG as a stopgap.

Everybody claiming Su-57/60/65, F-35, NGAD, GCAP, Mig-41 etc are all private opinions of people who do not fully agree with the IAF's official plan.

And this doubt is led by the belief that there's a significant gap between today and when AMCA will become available in numbers thereby requiring a stopgap purchase of something "better" than LCA and MRFA, a sentiment the IAF seems to disagree with.

My personal opinion is we have to stick to the IAF's plan, which will be the most likely course of action anyway, and see what the true Chinese 6th gen will look like, not J-36. If it's normal, then we do nothing new. If it's hypersonic, then we will need a stopgap of that level in order to bridge the gap between 2035 and 2055. With the Mig-41 set to fly this year or the next to make it in time for the Mig-31's 2030 retirement date, and it's not far-fetched to imagine the US and China are following closely behind.
 
Nah I'm talking the rafale strike package that used hammers to bomb jihadi sites inside PoK. The Pakistani awacs had been deployed all over the J&k, Punjab and Haryana sectors. The rafale must have dodged the initial barrage of pl-15's that were found in Hoshiarpur (150km from Bathinda). Most likely pl-15 might have damaged one of the rafale and engine might have failed. The plane was going to reach Bathinda AFS before which the pilot ejected. That's how tit might have been lost.

As per the IAF, no Indian jets crossed the Pak border during operations.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
So let me get this straight... India for over a week was telegraphing that they were going to attack terrorist inside Pakistan proper (which is an act of war no matter how you spin it) knowing the PAF fighters would be flying CAP and READY but India had a moronic RoE at the time that even though they are hitting Pakistan itself and likely causing collateral damage they don't want to be painted as the aggressor by firing at PAF fighters? Really?

Yep, that's the idea.

Indian missiles blowing up inside Pakistan already made you the aggressor in Pakistan's eyes so that excuse doesn't fly.

Nope. As long as we hit terrorists, any retaliation makes Pakistan the aggressor.

As far as the world is concerned, we are "helping" Pakistan clean up.

Lets just be honest here if true about this RoE it was a complete Fk up by IAF or incompetence for thinking this way if this was the RoE for the strike.

Has nothing to do with RoE. Has everything to do with India not being able to afford being painted as the bad guy, at least in our current stage of economic development.

Trump and Modi have the same political enemies, so these enemies are looking for a chance to string them up. So neither can give an excuse to allow that. Trump does not have the full ability to clean up the rot within the US, but Modi has the chance to do it 'cause he does not have to deal with term limits. He's very close to achieving a supermajority. Trump's gonna have to attempt is via successors.

Ever since Obama came to power, the Democrats, the Indian Congress, the British leadership including the Crown, the EU Parliament, the WEF, and the pre-Xi leadership in China have all been in cahoots together to suppress the Republicans, the BJP, and all other nationalist parties around the world (Netanyahu, Brazil's Bolsonaro, Romania's Georgescu, Ukraine's Yanukovych, Germany's Weidel etc).

Sadly, this collective is more powerful than all the individual nationalists. So Modi (BJP) cannot afford to give them an excuse that can result in widespread mayhem in India, similar to all your BLM riots, which is easy to instigate 'cause people have all been gaslit by propaganda, similar to white people in the West. Both India and the US are victims of the oppressor and oppressed narrative. Racism in the US, caste in India. And it's all happening 'cause most people in the West have become idiots to fall for it, whereas Indians are waking up to the threat rapidly.

And now we have Trump, Modi, even Xi, fighting back together. Trump's stolen the Palestine narrative from the Democrats by talking about supporting it. Modi's stolen the caste narrative by supporting a caste census which they were vocally opposed to for many years. And Xi is normalizing relations with Trump and Modi. Politics is fun when you can see the great game being played.

There's a military angle too. As two nuclear powers, India has been testing Pakistan's limits. And we have discovered those limits. This discovery led to Trump being invited to intervene by Pakistan, and the US has assumed control over Pakistan's nukes. As Pakistan is slowly pushed into an economic bunghole, they will become less and less resistant to US pressure due to the erosion of legitimacy. Eventually, Pak will have to give up nukes to survive. In time, with the nuke threat gone, we can turn them into our punching bag, or just use force to split the country into many pieces and normalize relations with most factions.
 
Surrender Modi comedy show speech today was so funny 🤣 🤣 🤣
Lmao...I didnt want to post this but....
1747087733539.jpeg



On a serious note. this image is going to be remembered for a long time👇
1747088102360.jpeg
Pakistan gets bombed with impunity.



Both sides get the validation they want politically, well until the next incident.
I dont think you understand the consequences of this skirmish. Munir gets a lifeline. You can be sure that gernails will suck even more money out of pakistans economy. which means Pakistan's economy is not gonna come out of coma even 10 years from now. Generals get to make pakistan miserable for 10 more years. Badhai ho!!! lol
 
Folks, a question.... has anyone ever seen an Indian Rafale flying in India, armed with a Meteor?

I have .... a dangerous suspicion... is it possible that our Rafale deal is essentially, like Egypt?

Or may be ... we have too few Meteors?

That may explain a lot of things.

@randomradio
 
  • Like
Reactions: RationalGuy
Folks, a question.... has anyone ever seen an Indian Rafale flying in India, armed with a Meteor?

I have .... a dangerous suspicion... is it possible that our Rafale deal is essentially, like Egypt?

Or may be ... we have too few Meteors?

That may explain a lot of things.

@randomradio
0mvh52tcw30f1.jpeg

We do not have meteor in number yet & the few we have we are holding back.
 
I guess you need to know what SEAD is. I'll give you a hint, it's in the first word of its name.
It's not lobbing cruise missiles at $1m each DEAD

The French plan on creating an ARM based on a cruise missile. Basically a 600-1000 km HARM, except it's hypersonic.

We are doing the same, but using an air-launched BM. 550+ km range.


7.jpg


The upcoming LRSOW will be our equivalent of the French weapon.
 
still loads of points not cleared

Day 1 - did IAF engage any PAF fighters which were firing PL-15s

Day 2,3 - was any PAF fighter engaged by air defences.

During the PAF raid there was chatter supported by initial confirmation (refer aroors tweet) of shootdowns

Some very serious people claimed it was Atleast one 16. What happened to that?


Is this because Pak side wanted it kept low key as a condition to step down

Or

Post balakot, we are not claiming because we don’t have wreckage?
Perhaps no air to air kills by IAF (unless they come out with details).

A vague answer without any numbers and targeted jet types proves no kill. As I mentioned earlier in another post, If IAF jets were able to fire on the enemy jets then would know what are they firing at. They would also have tracked their AAMs charging to the enemy jets. None of that seems to have happened.

I think either it is IAF's complacency or lack of strategic vision led to this situation despite having a learning lesson from Balakot mission.

IAF could have easily acquired R-37 Ms from Russia which would have shot down the PAF's AWACS and a few other jets well.

In fact that should be done at a highest priority to achieve an strategic edge and deterrence. S-400 did provide deterrence and instilled fear in the enemy psyche. But there was no need to limit or restrain there. The objective in a short war/campaign like this would have been to decimate the PAF and humiliate them and then only the justice would have been done. Fighting a war of attrition does not help achieve that goal specially given the fact that one nation is a begging bowl and the other has 660+ billion dollars of forex reserve.

I think by now PAF would have already thought of acquiring PL-21.

This ceasefire is a great opportunity to fill gaps and aim for a higher goal. Just like high altitude climbers do not reach summit in one attempt and instead set up camps. In the case of Indian armed forces, Balakot was camp 1 and Op Sindoor as Camp 2.
 
Perhaps no air to air kills by IAF (unless they come out with details).

A vague answer without any numbers and targeted jet types proves no kill. As I mentioned earlier in another post, If IAF jets were able to fire on the enemy jets then would know what are they firing at. They would also have tracked their AAMs charging to the enemy jets. None of that seems to have happened.

I think either it is IAF's complacency or lack of strategic vision led to this situation despite having a learning lesson from Balakot mission.

IAF could have easily acquired R-37 Ms from Russia which would have shot down the PAF's AWACS and a few other jets well.

In fact that should be done at a highest priority to achieve an strategic edge and deterrence. S-400 did provide deterrence and instilled fear in the enemy psyche. But there was no need to limit or restrain there. The objective in a short war/campaign like this would have been to decimate the PAF and humiliate them and then only the justice would have been done. Fighting a war of attrition does not help achieve that goal specially given the fact that one nation is a begging bowl and the other has 660+ billion dollars of forex reserve.

I think by now PAF would have already thought of acquiring PL-21.

This ceasefire is a great opportunity to fill gaps and aim for a higher goal. Just like high altitude climbers do not reach summit in one attempt and instead set up camps. In the case of Indian armed forces, Balakot was camp 1 and Op Sindoor as Camp 2.
Key shortcoming for IAF is lack of AWACS and lack of AESA seeker guided air to air missile as well as AESA radar jets. Now with the upcoming induction of Tejas Mk1a and Astra mk2, we will solve the latter problems to an extent in 3-4 years. We need to solve the former problem ASAP. Awacs is not only helpful for enemy aircraft detection but also for bmd. If not for Netra mk2 at least by 2030 we need to have 1-2 Netra Mk1a AWACS. By 2035 we need to have all 6 Netra Mk1a and at least 1 Netra Mk2. If we have our Netra Mk1a AWACS and Astra Mk2 then we're cooking against Porkis. With Netra Mk1a/Mk2, SU30MKI UPG, Tejas Mk2 and Gandiva hopefully by 2035, the PLAAF will start to see real issues on its Western military theatre. Just like how GOI expedited satellites it needs to expedite air power enhancement with the same vigor and support.
 
Perhaps no air to air kills by IAF (unless they come out with details).

A vague answer without any numbers and targeted jet types proves no kill. As I mentioned earlier in another post, If IAF jets were able to fire on the enemy jets then would know what are they firing at. They would also have tracked their AAMs charging to the enemy jets. None of that seems to have happened.

I think either it is IAF's complacency or lack of strategic vision led to this situation despite having a learning lesson from Balakot mission.

IAF could have easily acquired R-37 Ms from Russia which would have shot down the PAF's AWACS and a few other jets well.

In fact that should be done at a highest priority to achieve an strategic edge and deterrence. S-400 did provide deterrence and instilled fear in the enemy psyche. But there was no need to limit or restrain there. The objective in a short war/campaign like this would have been to decimate the PAF and humiliate them and then only the justice would have been done. Fighting a war of attrition does not help achieve that goal specially given the fact that one nation is a begging bowl and the other has 660+ billion dollars of forex reserve.

I think by now PAF would have already thought of acquiring PL-21.

This ceasefire is a great opportunity to fill gaps and aim for a higher goal. Just like high altitude climbers do not reach summit in one attempt and instead set up camps. In the case of Indian armed forces, Balakot was camp 1 and Op Sindoor as Camp 2.
I will largely disagree.

The Indian armed forces performed at a level that was not expected by most analysts. The Indian campaign will be text book material in most academies.

The reluctance to embarrass Pakistan can be only be one of two reasons

1. US pressure to make peace
2. India's reluctance to push Pakistan to breakup. Afterall if Pakistan breaks up, India is left managing the mess.
 
What's Su-60 ?
FGFA.
Let's at least get a solution for their J-20s before we begin thinking about their 6th Gen FAs . That's a decade off . In the meanwhile our silver bullet turned out to be made up of lead . Lot of factors in play of which we don't know anything about but the preliminary signs aren't good I'm afraid. Not good at all
I wouldn't right off Rafale just because of one "supposed" incident. Let's wait for more details to come out. Su-60MKI would be the customized variant of Su-57M with tandem back-seat and all Russian avionics being replaced by Indian ones. We may not get IP like what FGFA was supposed to have, but at this point we don't need it as our own AMCA would address that gap.

Su-60MKI would become a necessity once PAF gets J-35As. If J-10CE + PL-15 combo could be lethal then just think about how potent J-35 + PL-15 combo would be. Su-60MKI then not only becomes an imaginery jet but an absolute requirement to take on PAF's J-35 & KAAN along with PLAAF's J-20, J-36 & J-50.
 
I bet they won't make the same mistake. Next time IAF hits terror camps inside Pakistan and IAF detects bandits nose hot IAF pilots will fire BVR missiles.
Next time we will have Astra Mk2 on Tejas Mk1a (and hopefully Tejas Mk2) with AESA radar graping the grape air force. That is if the next clash will come after 2030 which seems likely bcuz porkis ain't gonna recover from this *censored* whooping soon.

The French plan on creating an ARM based on a cruise missile. Basically a 600-1000 km HARM, except it's hypersonic.

We are doing the same, but using an air-launched BM. 550+ km range.


View attachment 43200


The upcoming LRSOW will be our equivalent of the French weapon.
By when do you reckon we will have Rudram 2 and 3 deployed? Cuz the bakri walas will quite definitely sell some DHA plots to upgrade their air defence systems so by next time our sead and dead have to be much more robust me thinks.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
Because there was no bvr fight. It was a one sided bvr spam. The RoE was clear to not attack any military assets.
It was a spam and nothing stopped us from spamming in return.

Its very unlikely the same RoE restriction are there like last time. Sure, we cant fire first. But, we can very well anticipate and fireback. In a huge strike package of 50+ aircraft half of them are to secure the package.

Last time, we were defending a large strike package with very few aircraft. This time, even if a few aircraft have missiles fired upon them, there will be others that can go on the offensive.
 
It was a spam and nothing stopped us from spamming in return.

Its very unlikely the same RoE restriction are there like last time. Sure, we cant fire first. But, we can very well anticipate and fireback. In a huge strike package of 50+ aircraft half of them are to secure the package.

Last time, we were defending a large strike package with very few aircraft. This time, even if a few aircraft have missiles fired upon them, there will be others that can go on the offensive.
This either means we did fire back and hit their assets or we fired back and didn't hit any of their assets. Considering the IAF said it did indeed hit PAF aircraft i will believe the former. But they really need to do a debriefing ASAP about our losses and the losses they made on the enemy. Idk what they are waiting for? All ops would have likely ceased by now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
Nah I'm talking the rafale strike package that used hammers to bomb jihadi sites inside PoK. The Pakistani awacs had been deployed all over the J&k, Punjab and Haryana sectors. The rafale must have dodged the initial barrage of pl-15's that were found in Hoshiarpur (150km from Bathinda). Most likely pl-15 might have damaged one of the rafale and engine might have failed. The plane was going to reach Bathinda AFS before which the pilot ejected. That's how tit might have been lost.
Thats not a engine, if you look closer thats a after burner section, The jet still have remaining part of the engine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: _Anonymous_