Pahalgam terror attack: 26 killed

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Without BLA / Afghans involvement, this is going to be long drawn affair. Don't envy Modi's job. The weight of decisions he has to take are immence.

Hope I am wrong.

PS: no Modi bashing please.
And the crown, it weighs heavy!

However, the burden depends upon the objective. I think the objective is to scare Pakistan away for 6-7 more years meanwhile build a strategic barrier to their activities : control over flow of Indus water.
 
Demonstrated the escalation ladder in 2019 ? Let me guess - that Qatl ki Raat bluff where the overarching narrative is if Abhinandan didn't screw up we'd have gone in for the kill which Leaderji grabbed with both arms giving him an excuse to de escalate & leave the Pakistanis to claim victory - a fact myself and a few others brought out in debates with Hellfire that not responding to Operation Swift Fart would prove expensive in the long run .

Right enough the Chinese came calling a year later in Galwan & the Paxtanis kept probing with minor casualties in the Valley keeping the pot boiling till they decided to go in for the kill. Incidentally guess who was the ISI chief when Pulwama was undertaken.
What is RST, bhai? Your acronyms had me here.
Resident Story Teller.
 
Demonstrated the escalation ladder in 2019 ? Let me guess - that Qatl ki Raat bluff where the overarching narrative is if Abhinandan didn't screw up we'd have gone in for the kill which Leaderji grabbed with both arms giving him an excuse to de escalate & leave the Pakistanis to claim victory - a fact myself and a few others brought out in debates with Hellfire that not responding to Operation Swift Fart would prove expensive in the long run .

Right enough the Chinese came calling a year later in Galwan & the Paxtanis kept probing with minor casualties in the Valley keeping the pot boiling till they decided to go in for the kill. Incidentally guess who was the ISI chief when Pulwama was undertaken.
I think bluff ended even earlier when they declared it an "intelligence driven operation" and "surgical strike" and declared it over after our mirages were back. It was clear that India was doing just bare minimal there.
 
Things that India can do better than 2019

Manage the information space better

Pak went on the offensive from day 1 with the Balakot killed crows and trees narrative, IAF could not release photos of the BDA for a few days allowing Pak to run wild.

The whole Doosra banda mess. The scoop hungry media picked up the Shahaz ud Din BS intentionally peddled by Pak and it led to India losing the plot. This lesson hasnt been learnt, evident from the shit heads who went overboard sharing the Chinese Galwan casualty list which perversely had feminine names in it.

Indian armed forces long used to selectively releasing information to media in press conferences need to recognize the digital space as yet another battlefield where they need to wage war - an information war if they are to prevail in this new paradigm.

Manage the Indian population

One battle into the conflict, our population started candle marches for peace and Abhinandan's safe return showing the govt the public had no intention or stomach for a proper conflict. No govt can wage a respectable war if its civil population isn't interested.

Have a better control on the escalation matrix

An unpopular opinion which is going to make people uncomfortable and earn me brickbats. India has been hitting back for a long time. Only the govts of the day chose to keep those actions under the wraps to contain the fallout. Leaderji's first real action on Pak in 2016 which was publicised as a "Surgical Strike" while really being a cross border raid that killed a few terrorists / Pakistanis but did not meet any real goals.

Pak was able to downplay the hit and therefore chose to not publicly react.

After Balakot, India used the IAF to bomb PoK forcing Pak's hand. Pak's response - Op Swift Retort was a preplanned op, where PAF threw everything except the kitchen sink at India to make a rhetorical point. Both sides decided to call it a day since neither side had the heart for a real conflict. Both sides went on the overdrive claiming victory while in reality both sides had lost

India had effectively flushed the Nuke deterrence peddled by Pak down the toilet. Pak had saved face by managing to match India strike for strike.
Neither side met their stated objectives. India did not deter further terror attacks. Pak wasnt able to scare off India.
The only achievement of both sides was kicking the can down the road. Which brings us to 2025.

Pak's list of grievances is long - Unknown gunmen, the Train hijack in Balochistan where service members were identified and killed were blamed on India. Its the easy way out for Pak which doesnt want to accept responsibility for the hot mess it has made in Balochistan.

Asim Munir facing internal strife and a weakening support base took a Hail Mary and bet the collective future of the Jernails / Fauji group on a pair of fives.

Now both sides find themselves at crossroads. For their own reasons, both sides have chosen their paths and now find themselves riding a tiger they cant get off.

India's ruling party long projecting a strongman image can ill afford to back down. Pak Army long projecting itself as the sole guardian of Pakistan can ill afford to look weak especially after chickening out during the 370 episode.

Both sides have chosen to publicize actions that should have been kept under the wraps to allow additional maneuvering room. In doing so they have lowered the threshold with each episode.

Uri - India launched a cross border raid. No biggie raids happened before. But this raid was publicly announced and celebrated. Pak was reduced to disputing the impact and claiming it was a minor event.

Pulwama - India launched air strikes. Pak already unhappy at its deterrence being eroded launched counter strike using a mission that was preplanned and gamed. But eager to avoid a showdown chose to dilute the impact and drop duds on empty ground. The wildcard was the MiG-21 F-16 clash whose outcome depends on the flag the reader supports.

This brings us to Pahalgam. The Indian public expects meaningful action - something that addresses the complaints of 2019. Pak wants to address the massive beating the Pak army image has taken in the recent times. Neither side has any room for concessions.

Bottom line - With every public action, the threshold for a conflict gets lower. Like a stock being traded on the market where the shareholders expect not just a profit but a percentage increase on the profit from the previous financial year, the voters expect stronger action than the one offered on the previous flashpoint.

So far the GoI has managed to keep the pressure at bay while it works on its options. What will ultimately decide the outcome is how well the GoI manages to keep control of the plot.

No plan survives first contact. Lets see how GoI fares post Zero Hour.
Bravo ! Brilliant summation of events - past , present & future. Wish I penned that. 👏👏

Also wish cognitively impaired you know who reads this , pins it on his wall & go thru it daily on tips of how to construct an argument instead of being a street side brawler then coming up with gems like I deliberately was contrarian.

Thumb rule - contrarians are usually born feet first . Of course that's not the only qualification. Paddy's born feet first too. But he has a lot less going for him
Interestingly, Indian side is very quite... either no troop movement is happening or ... we have become really good at hiding it in media or otherwise.
Ours are exercising or preparing for forthcoming exercises. Whether it is really the case or is a ruse is anyone's guess.
 
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Ours are exercising or preparing for forthcoming exercises. Whether it is really the case or is a ruse is anyone's guess.
To be very honest, keeping others guessing is not a bad trait and to fool your enemies first you need to learn to fool your friends and family. So I am not complaining about that part.

My bigger issue is their history. That tells us that anything government in India always creeks when moving.
 
Jesus fukken christ!
What's you professional background? What do you know about communication systems?
I come from computer and telecom background and what you are talking about is pure bullshit.

A telecom protocol (which is essentially all these tactical data links are) has many parts or rather layers. Just because you can translate datagram from one protocol to another, it does not mean it will work with another. Think about it. If it was just a matter of translating telecom protocols, fooling missiles would have been trivial! Just sent the data grams in right protocol and missile will simply abort!

You need authentication parts worked out as well. And no, you do not have that worked out. Otherwise you would be using AIM120C with your Chinese jets for long time. That sbjt never happens for a reason.

So yeah you can translate messages or datagrams it will not amount to anything unless Erieye and Chinese missiles share authentication bits.

And I doubt Chinese will EVER share their authentication secrets with you. Not to mention, it is not possible for Erieye to let you install Chinese cyphers to support PL-15 authentication. And precisely that you ask for source code. So you can add such things.

Had this been possible, you would have been flying PL-12s and PL-15s in your F-16s too. Because all things would play nice with each other since you are translating their messages and protocols. That shit does not happen.

Exactly the same reason India can not integrate European radar guided missiles on its Russian jets. Europe is not going to allow that. Neither will Russia.
Yes , and that's where you actually need firmware or source code access, which Pakistan has with Chinese weapons in use
Link 17 took many years to develop and things you said here are baked in.

The authentication keys you are talking about are generated separately, hence the involvement of a ground station an intermediate.
That's all I know, as information publicly available is scarce.
You can make of it whatever you want, and I like the technical points you raised.
 
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That would be over simplifying it. You're assuming that a Rafale/Tejas loaded with 6 BVRs and 2 EFTs to have 0.1m2 RCS?? No mate, in that configuaration both would be around 1.5m2 - 2m2. Secondly you're assuming that MKI or Chinese J-16 to have same RCS of Su-27, i.e , 10-12m2??

Let me tell you something and I've posted it in the MKI thread too. Russians way back in early 2000s reduced Su-27M's(MKI's forefather) RCS from 12m2(fully loaded with 12 BVRs) to just 4m2 using novel RAM paint. MKI of today uses RAM that is several times more effective than that Russian RAM. So with 6 BVRs, its RCS could be around 3m2(conservatively) or even far lower(optismistically). Plus MKI houses a monster of a radar named BARS. Chinese J-16 uses an AESA radar with around 1800 TRMs compared to 900/1000 TRM count of Rafale/Tejas. So a Chinese J-16 with say 6 PL-15s has a frontal RCS of 3m2 with that monster of a radar against Rafale/Tejas with 6 BVRs and puny air-to-air radar with 1000 TRMs. There is no way Rafale/Tejas will get first look or first shot. Either J-16 detects them first or both detect each other at the same time. For air dominance you need RCS that is several magnitude lower like -40dBsm of F-22 or -30dBsm of J-20 along with a monster AESA radar that has over 2000 TRMs. Until then, it's just a stalemate and would come down to tactics more than just tech. And in that area, IAF prevails over all.

So there is no way any of our fighter has any BVR advantage over Chinese jets. Whatever it's, it is because of Meteor. Remove Meteor and even J-10CE with PL-15E would force our Rafale with MICA-RF back.

Never underestimate your enemy. Treat them as equal or even better to devise such strategy to vanquish them. Our only saving grace is METEOR at the moment. Nothing more, nothing less.

Now Let us analyze your data putting aside the arguments of Chinese Radar Quality.

Radar Cross section of Rafale 0.5 metes. Add 1 sq meter for weapons. It is 1.5 Sq meter. Assuming 1800 TR modules of Chinese plane, lets us see its range.

Assuming that Rafale with 1000 TR module can detect a target of 1 Sq meter from 120 K.M. So it can detect Chinese plane of say 4 Sq Meter (Most Conservative figure) from =120(4/1)^(1/4) K.M. of distance. This turns out to be 170 k.m.

Now chinese Radar with 1.8 times more Power has Detect 1 Sq, meter of target from (1.8/1)^0.25= 120X1.157X1.10=154 K.M.

This is inspite of giving lots of assumption in the favor of Chinese Plane. With Metero and Superior Spectra like EW, rafale will have far superior kill ratio in BVR.

So far as MWF is concern, Figure for detection shall come down to 140 k.m with 1.1 Sq Meter target. MWF can detect Chinese plane from 163 K.M. In this case MWF will have 23 K.M. First seen advantage. MWF will need Astra Mk2 to take advantage of its higher detection range.

BREAKING NEWS: Trump tells India, if you destroy Pakistan you will have to pay for its debts.. 😂😂🤣🤣

As if undestroyed Pakistan is going to pay the debt? In fact Trump should ask India to destroy Pakistan so that it doesn't ask for more debt.
 
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Can anyone suggest good source for latest and real time update related to military(any telegram channel, twitter etc). Which source do you trust apart from media.
 
No.
Link 17 is a simple translator transmitter.
You don't need source code for that.
It picks up information from Erieye, translates into format understandable but Chinese platforms such as JF-17 and transmits.
It's not as realtime as Link 16 , due to translation phase. But it's there and works..
In some situations it doesn't even work aircraft to aircraft, instead it uses a ground station as intermediate, where the translation happens.
So it's Erieye to ground station to JF 17.

I'm not talking about Link 17, the connection between Erieye and the JF-17. I'm talking about Erieye's ability to provide initial tracking data followed by mid-course updates to the PL-15, so the connection between Erieye and PL-15.

For example, the Erieye's radar output needs to be compatible with the PL-15's data link protocol. This is possible for the PL-15E (can be shared if necessary), but not for the PL-15 (proprietary). Another hurdle is the Erieye's targeting data should be processed by JF-17's fire control system. So the fire control can be transferred from Erieye to the PL-15. This is also possible for the PL-15E, not the PL-15.

And when both these hurdles are crossed, the JF-17 will use the Erieye data to communicate with the PL-15E, so the JF-17 acts as a relay. There's no direct comm link between the Erieye and PL-15E.

In any case, transferring the PL-15 with the same data link and FCS terminal as what PLAAF use will make it incompatible with the JF-17 and J-10CP, so it's useless to the PAF.
 
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Jesus fukken christ!
What's you professional background? What do you know about communication systems?
I come from computer and telecom background and what you are talking about is pure bullshit.

A telecom protocol (which is essentially all these tactical data links are) has many parts or rather layers. Just because you can translate datagram from one protocol to another, it does not mean it will work with another. Think about it. If it was just a matter of translating telecom protocols, fooling missiles would have been trivial! Just sent the data grams in right protocol and missile will simply abort!

You need authentication parts worked out as well. And no, you do not have that worked out. Otherwise you would be using AIM120C with your Chinese jets for long time. That sbjt never happens for a reason.

So yeah you can translate messages or datagrams it will not amount to anything unless Erieye and Chinese missiles share authentication bits.

And I doubt Chinese will EVER share their authentication secrets with you. Not to mention, it is not possible for Erieye to let you install Chinese cyphers to support PL-15 authentication. And precisely that you ask for source code. So you can add such things.

Had this been possible, you would have been flying PL-12s and PL-15s in your F-16s too. Because all things would play nice with each other since you are translating their messages and protocols. That shit does not happen.

PAFji and SAABji made their own data link. And PAF has access to targeting data from Erieye, which they can convert into fire control for the missile. And the missile carries NATO compatible hardware for export so PAF on its own can feed the fire control data into the missile and with control over the data link, they can provide mid-course updates too. So PL-15E is fine. There is no need for direct communication between the Erieye and JF-17 in this case.

Of course, it's everything as you say for the PL-15.

And yeah, with AMRAAM and F-16 they have no control over the missile or the fighter in any capacity, so they can't do anything there.

Exactly the same reason India can not integrate European radar guided missiles on its Russian jets. Europe is not going to allow that. Neither will Russia.

Meteor can be integrated into MKI without any Russian involvement, MBDA are just being pricks, the Israelis had no problems. We have full control over the radar and comm system. All the Meteor needs is comm compatibility with our Indo-Israeli data link, easy-peasy, and a modified software module for using the Bars fire control along with RBE2 and Uttam.
 
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The usual nonsense from Ignorants.

Thinks stopgap means M2000, when it actually means 40 more Rafales.

The rest, wow. He tries to clutch on to anything he can after soundly being beaten the very first time he posts. Shifts goalposts he says, our man plays a different game with each post. Can't believe his only go-to argument is BMD, who he seems to look up to. And looks like he's learned a new word: "retard."
 
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