Pahalgam terror attack: 26 killed

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Paro said:
I have a feeling there wont be any retaliation this time around.

The economy isnt doing that well, recession around the corner, india trying to get a trade deal with the EU and US which might increase or decrease FDI flow for the next 6 years. IAF not in a good state.

My guess is it will be brushed under the carpet after 2-3 news cycles. Or probably just go for an optics strike like balakot were every party claims victory and just be done with it.
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It's the opposite. First, the military is prepared. Both Balakot and Galwan have led to massive modernization. The IAF too is in a far better state than they were in 2019. If anything, military weakness is not going to be an excuse.

Trade negotiations will force the West to take India's side. Trump's not gonna let it slide for the sake of Pakistan, neither will the UK. The EU might slip, but for other reasons.
 
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Parthu said:
There will be an overt military response, because our hand is being forced (at least 2 of the terrorists are Pakistani nationals, probably SSG) - but I doubt IAF will be involved in any way.

It'll have to be Army/SF.
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Do we have the resources yet in the valley to actually get those 4? Good numbers are still along LAC. And we have delayed repeatedly raising the promised new units for LAC.
 
Defc0n said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1914752466845114663

This keeps popping up. Wonder what’s the angle here, how is such a leak possible?!
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No, I don't believe the IB story and it might be a coincidence. If it is true the messaging from LeT(trf) would be different as the whole rebranding of LeT took place to make it look non terrorist like which engages in "resistance", not by targeting civilians.

But I believe the OP tweeet of SSG presence in valley, because pakees were saying in 2019 also they were keeping track of the then COAS Bipin Rawat or some BS during Balakot, which might be exxageration but we should not underestimate the enemy and infiltration and laying low by couple of SSGs is not out of possibilty.
 
Attacking pakistan overtly now will only help the military monkeys , it will take the pressure of them and the opposition imran khan will also end up supporting military. Best is to target them covertly and inflict significant economic & military damage. Its a war of attrition , chest thumping & playing to gallery will not help us any way.

We can start by prepping for dissolving indus treaty in indus river. Hit their major economic centers & infra like power,ports, railways over a period of time. Once the economy hits the doldrums , then pakistanis themselves will take the monkeys to cleaners.
 
jetray said:
Attacking pakistan overtly now will only help the military monkeys , it will take the pressure of them and the opposition imran khan will also end up supporting military. Best is to target them covertly and inflict significant economic & military damage. Its a war of attrition , chest thumping & playing to gallery will not help us any way.

We can start by prepping for dissolving indus treaty in indus river. Hit their major economic centers & infra like power,ports, railways over a period of time. Once the economy hits the doldrums , then pakistanis themselves will take the monkeys to cleaners.
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There is one more option...

Attack and capture some parts of Pakistan.... instead of Kashmir, in Punjab. That will basically break the back of Pakistan's establishment.
 
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jetray said:
Attacking pakistan overtly now will only help the military monkeys , it will take the pressure of them and the opposition imran khan will also end up supporting military. Best is to target them covertly and inflict significant economic & military damage. Its a war of attrition , chest thumping & playing to gallery will not help us any way.

We can start by prepping for dissolving indus treaty in indus river. Hit their major economic centers & infra like power,ports, railways over a period of time. Once the economy hits the doldrums , then pakistanis themselves will take the monkeys to cleaners.
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Hitting infra they will just retaliate hitting our infra. Its going to go tit for tat. Hitting their infra they will just blame and run for another decade on anti india rhetoric.

The targets should be their assets like radars or eyes in the sky. Which will degrade their capability to respond and survive the next attack at the same time it will increase their burden to pay for new ones.
Saaho said:
There is one more option...

Attack and capture some parts of Pakistan.... instead of Kashmir, in Punjab. That will basically break the back of Pakistan's establishment.
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Capture hajj pir pass and not negotiate.
 
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Ankit Kumar said:
Do we have the resources yet in the valley to actually get those 4? Good numbers are still along LAC. And we have delayed repeatedly raising the promised new units for LAC.
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Those 4 are probably long gone. Forests nearby. Foliage penetration isn't easy even when we have drones in the area. If they are in escape & evade mode, the terrain is on their side & they have a head start. Throwing more forces won't solve the problem.

If they choose to stay back & lay ambushes instead, there's a chance we'll find & kill them. But assuming these are ex-SSG taking orders directly from ISI, they'd have been instructed to escape instead of confronting the security forces - as killing these perpetrators offers GOI a less escalatory off-ramp from this issue - whereas it seems ISI & PA GHQ are intent on forcing our hand to escalate to much higher levels.
 
jetray said:
Attacking pakistan overtly now will only help the military monkeys , it will take the pressure of them and the opposition imran khan will also end up supporting military.
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Yeah - but if you don't, it carries significant political & societal ramifications for our own country. The vast majority of people aren't gonna look at things strategically, that's just how most people are, whether in India, US, Israel or anywhere. You have to take their emotions into consideration as part of your strategy.

Otherwise you're risking the destruction of the national psyche - and there's no putting it back once it's broken.

jetray said:
Best is to target them covertly and inflict significant economic & military damage. Its a war of attrition , chest thumping & playing to gallery will not help us any way.

We can start by prepping for dissolving indus treaty in indus river. Hit their major economic centers & infra like power,ports, railways over a period of time. Once the economy hits the doldrums , then pakistanis themselves will take the monkeys to cleaners.
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All of this has to happen as well. But alongside overt military action - not instead of.

We need to officially recognize Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, and implement primary & secondary economic sanctions as well i.e. a company from a 3rd country that does business in Pak cannot be allowed to do business in India. Need to start with sectors where we have the most leverage.

There's nothing covert about sanctions or suspending IWT however. Covert will mean funding & arming Balochis, and going after Pakistani Generals. That has to be done too.
 
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Same old copy book style response
1. Search ops
2. Engage if situation arise
3. Else continue with step 1
4. Some low key covert ops with SF rebranding as surgical strike II.
5. Sweep under carpet and look for next assembly poll.

Ideally India should have performed covert ops on regular basis not followed up. All signal is there that GoI is going for half hearted activity. Why the presence of foreign minister and babus from foreign ministry in Modi's first meet in Delhi. Are the trying to convince some other country or its diplomatic outreach. Free hand to forces does not mean anything . What stopping India to escalate it to some stage so that it can wipe out pak army and airforce forward posture and shame pak general in open.what stopping India to put a naval blockade around Karachi for 10 days with media galore . Babus armed forces and govt should provide synchronised action. Israel in 2 batches consumed 400 missiles drones from Iran still they are not at war.
 
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Parthu said:
Those 4 are probably long gone. Forests nearby. Foliage penetration isn't easy even when we have drones in the area. If they are in escape & evade mode, the terrain is on their side & they have a head start. Throwing more forces won't solve the problem.

If they choose to stay back & lay ambushes instead, there's a chance we'll find & kill them. But assuming these are ex-SSG taking orders directly from ISI, they'd have been instructed to escape instead of confronting the security forces - as killing these perpetrators offers GOI a less escalatory off-ramp from this issue - whereas it seems ISI & PA GHQ are intent on forcing our hand to escalate to much higher levels.
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Pahalgam is on eastern ridges of the valley and near Kargil, Dras and Gilgit than PoK, so if they want to escape back to PoK it will take time and OGW support, can be nabbed if they try to escape, let us see
 
As one of the largest contributors to the IMF, don't we have any veto over how much money Pak gets? They are back to their old games again because international aid is flowing freely and FATF scrutiny is over. Climate finance is now their newest tactic for getting foreign funds. Squeeze their funds and they'll behave.

Imo, the govt may not want to launch airstrikes to avoid another Abhinandan type scenario which precluded further operations in Feb 2019. We need to launch missile strikes to take down key terrorist targets. Secondly, it's time to adopt a scorched earth policy and burn down the Pir Panjal forests Plug all known entry and exit routes used by terriorists in the past. Covert ops against key jihadi leaders need to be scaled up too.
 
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ANI news

In the meeting chaired by the Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Indian Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh were also present, along with other officials.

The meeting discussed all issues related to the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir. The issue is expected to be discussed in further detail in the Cabinet Committee on Security meeting likely to be held today. (ANI)
 
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