If you add 3-4 squadrons of Su-57 or any other 5th Gen FA by 2030 which I think we'd have to as there's no choice in the matter now , to the tally in addition to the 10 squadrons of Mk2 , you'd get 45-47 by 2040 or thereabouts.
MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Picdelamirand-oil
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F35 maybe. Su57 isn't happening now. IAF as of today has more confidence in desi AESA, RWR, etc. And with the war happening, I don't see the Russians improving it.
On the Contrary , Russians need cash
They will be happy to give us High End Technology
Can you say that AMCA will be better than Su 57
Tbh, at the moment both seem difficult. We don't know in what shape the definitive version of the Felon will arrive in i.e the Mk-2, irrespective of how storyteller here spins his yarns. At the moment we're just hoping it's the next best thing to the Lightings. The only silver lining is that this is a few years away when temperature now heated would've cooled down giving us time & space to exercise our options.
On the contrary I think the lightnings are out. Can you even imagine a situation where in in spite of CAATSA you've a nation with F-35 & S-400 co existing in their arsenal. What's the signaling to the rest of the world by the US? That India is some sort of Jamai Raja?
Which is why I'm hoping the Mk-2 of the Felons is good enough .
Another recurring nightmare is we actually float the MRFA tender in year or 2 & it goes thru it's usual motions like last time & we sign up a contract in 2032-34 with the first fighter coming out in 2035-37 T/L & the last ones in 2045-47 T/L along with the last of the Mk-2 of the AMCAs & then in 2055-57 we have another 27th Feb like incident with the CoAS of the IAF pointing out the Rafales are well past their sell by date in spite of the last of it being inducted a decade ago with the IAF tired of pushing for it's replacements.
Suddenly a plan for replacements materialises with storyteller here giving us a low down on it's Timelines like always stretching things into the 2070's. As you see some things never change.
We need those MRFAs & 5th Gen FA before 2030 . That's when the danger will be at it's worst. Anything coming after 2035 doesn't exact serve the purpose though it meets our long term plans in some ways not in full measure
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From what I understand, the issue is availability. A normal squadron needs 21 jets, and I believe MKI was designed for 20 per squadron. But due to availability being what it is, more jets are needed to ensure a squadron has enough operational jets at any time. Which is at least 12. 22 jets will give us 12 at 55%. If we raise availability to 65%, then we get 13 jets out of 20, which would free up an entire squadron worth of jets. At 70%, a squadron can have just 18 jets, with 2 reserve. So the total operational fleet size can be 260, with the remaining meant for other use.
Yeah, it's been a few years since I've been saying this. 2022-27 will give us the contracts while the main spending will happen from 2027+ to the late 2030s. Money won't be an issue by then.
With the Ukraine War and overt American bullying, I think we can kiss goodbye to any fighter imports from the US or Russia after MRFA for the IAF. So that's gonna happen. No more F-35/NGAD vs Su-57 possibilities.
In terms of numbers, it will be way more than that though. I mean, due to attrition, while the number of squadrons will remain the same, the missing jets will need to be replenished. We will need half a squadron to a squadron's worth of extra jets for each type.
In any case, a small correction for my fleet...
12 MKI + 6 MK1A + 9 MK2 + 11 Rafales + 2 AMCA Mk1 + 4-5 AMCA MK2
The IAF is very likely to exercise full options for both, that's 3 squadrons each. So 6+3 for Mk2 and 2+6+3 for Rafale.
They cannot give us something which they don't have.
How good AMCA will be , I don't know but in future we may be replacing the oldest MKIs with it. So it's not gonna be too bad.
The US is out. There is some benefit to buying the SH for now, if it wins, it will give us access to their carrier tech and other aviation assets requried for IAC-2, but the US is most definitely gonna be out of our military business pretty much across the board. They may get a few contracts, but nothing that will allow them to hold us hostage.
I remember discussing somewhere that if the serviceability comes up to a level at which we want , we can even bring up the squadron numbers upto 15. You were there too , I think when 36 Rafale IGA was signed....
Anyways for now if it's 60% + it's fine.
I would like to belive that MMRCA 2 is the last fighter jet we import, but if PAF gets a stealth 5th gen option from China by 2027-28 we would be looking at alternatives.
Concerns with any American alternative is well placed. But my concern with Russian alternative is that it's simply not good enough. We would actually need to do the JV kind of thing to bring the product up to the mark.
As of today their Su35 which comes with a radar better than Bars experiences problems and has an operating cost 2.5 times that of MKI with similar serviceability.
Su35 and S400 were both demonstrated together to Indian contingent in Russia. That was maybe 2015-16 I think. They haven't improved anything on Su35 as of today. That's why I doubt that they will be able to do it on others.
Look if the J-20s are going to be fielded by the PLAAF in sizeable numbers we have a problem irrespective of how good they claim it is & we know for a fact that it's going to be . I don't think we've an option but to go in for a 5th Gen FA by 2025-26 T/L .
So apart from the Lightnings & the Felon , what're our alternatives ? You're well aware of the issues with cutting edge US stuff assuming & that's a big assumption , they consent to a sale . Hence more than the Russians , I think we ought to be praying the Su-57 Mk-2 is a decent 5th Gen FA.
Your concerns are real & duly acknowledged but we really don't have a choice in the matter except if we were probably looking at 100+ Rafales irrespective of it's version by 2030 which we both know isn't happening so soon or at least in those numbers .
15 is impossible. 13.5 is doable, which was the initial plan back in 2012. Today the availability is 65%. Primarily because of HAL's spares warehouse, which eliminated supply downtime. 70% for the MKI is considered very difficult to reach.
Whatever China or Pak gets, the Rafale, MKI and LCA will manage until AMCA arrives 'cause of stealth drones. The political environment has become very difficult for imports from the US and Russia for strategic systems. Post this decade, only France and Israel remain viable, to a limit.
70% should be the aim ultimately. But 60-65 is fine. Even USAF struggles with F15C legacy fleet but they got a better engine to work with. Hopefully MLU gives us a better engine option for MKI.
The problem isn't technology, the problem is export supply. The Russians make decent stuff, or we wouldn't be buying them.
The Su-35 doesn't need any improvements until MLU, they already have the numbers. Like what MRFA is to the IAF, Su-57 is to them. Their technology inductions will come in via that route. The new Mig-35 will be a better benchmark for their latest export tech. We are 10 years behind Russia in aerospace tech, it's a reality we have to live with for now.
I find that 2.5 times figure doubtful.
It's the limit of the Flanker design. Not much we can do about it. We got lucky that it has a service life of 6000 hours.
Is the current sqdrn strength adequate to counter our enemies when it comes to launching an assault on pok or if war with china happens
Well it will be better than j20 that's for sure but can't say for sure with regards to US 5th gen jet. What do you think though that can our scientists make AMCA as formidable as F35 if not better?
