What is abc, xyz about economics.

dray

Rain Man
Dec 1, 2017
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366
India
Is it possible, Sir, to cite any analysis of the situation that is not so defensive and not so dedicated to the preservation of the good name and reputation of this government? Your help would be appreciated.
There are plenty of articles, statements, 'change org' petitions that would meet your requirement. :) However, almost all such materials conveniently forget (or oblivious to) the fact that currently the security after a bank failure is next to nothing, the real security we have is our fairly regulated and robust financial sector that ensures that corrective measures are taken before a bank actually fails.
 

BlackOpsIndia

Team StratFront
Dec 1, 2017
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@Aashish post was very spot on. Right now private based GFCF (essentially capex) is lower than before and there will be a few years of lag potentially even as it picks up with NPA resolution over time. This will add to the pressures mentioned, so yes there will be likely corrections across the board if you just want to do general investment like mutual funds or ETFs etc. More specific instruments/mid cap (which are where best returns are), I am somewhat removed from India finance sector on that. Those take more of your time too (good research, time to spend watching and analysis), to grow such portfolio well (again Aashish describes the micromanagement process of those quite well, you will have to do individual research)....and people that do it for you (say various in the know hedge funds etc) will take their premium cut as well. There can be really good returns across even a correction phase if you research the cash flow, stability and outlook and hedge across those specific choices....but probably best to wait for the correction/restructuring phase if you don't have the time to sift through.
Sir just taking correction into account based on historical data or situation is right approach?

During previous decade the inflows were not so strong, people invested, booked the profit and waited for next cycle, however recently we are watching continuous inflows in strong numbers, not just that by reducing wastage and leakage, expanding tax base a lot of money is saved by govt which is now injected into infrastructure projects and similarly NPA mess is also being taken care of slowly by injecting more capital. So when there are big plans for infrastructure, investments by govt is it right strategy to wait for correction which may be delayed by next few years?
 
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Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
510
1,191
Sir just taking correction into account based on historical data or situation is right approach?

During previous decade the inflows were not so strong, people invested, booked the profit and waited for next cycle, however recently we are watching continuous inflows in strong numbers, not just that by reducing wastage and leakage, expanding tax base a lot of money is saved by govt which is now injected into infrastructure projects and similarly NPA mess is also being taken care of slowly by injecting more capital. So when there are big plans for infrastructure, investments by govt is it right strategy to wait for correction which may be delayed by next few years?
If you focus research into the big plan areas govt is looking at (i.e say infra companies, raw materials etc esp those that process rather than basic accumulate) then no reason to wait really....because they will do well even under correction and benefit from sentiment of momentum/improvement. But you need to commit to that research, hedge well and also be willing to take some risk anyway.

I am just saying if people outsource the research component to various types of funds etc that will not have the resolution of that kind of potential gain (though I guess one can look specifically at infra funds etc) but also more security overall in the current environment.

It is overall something I have not looked into in detailed way in India lately....
 
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BlackOpsIndia

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If you focus research into the big plan areas govt is looking at (i.e say infra companies, raw materials etc esp those that process rather than basic accumulate) then no reason to wait really....because they will do well even under correction and benefit from sentiment of momentum/improvement. But you need to commit to that research, hedge well and also be willing to take some risk anyway.

I am just saying if people outsource the research component to various types of funds etc that will not have the resolution of that kind of potential gain (though I guess one can look specifically at infra funds etc) but also more security overall in the current environment.

It is overall something I have not looked into in detailed way in India lately....
I think when big amount of capital is inject every sector will flourish expect a very few, that money will directly benefit the targeted sectors but as more money is injected and reaches people demand for other sectors will automatically improve so they too will be able to dodge any correction based on historical pattern, after all its more about supply and demand than sticking with past patterns and traditions.
 
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suryakiran

Team StratFront
Dec 1, 2017
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Bangalore
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Thanks to home loan for yet to get possession house and kids admission this year I doubt if I will have any money left to invest till next december. One of my colleague was looking for some ideas about it so I thought I will all gurus .
IDFC, Mindtree and Karur Vysya Bank. Not for trading. Delivery and holding for 2 years at the least.
 
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suryakiran

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Dec 1, 2017
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I am a supply chain guy who knows nothing about economics. I am starting my MBA this fall so, i guess I am require to know both Macro and Micro eco.
Then my suggestion is as below :

1. Samuelson Nordhaus - Economics / Microeconomics / Macroeconomics
2. Dominic Salvator - International Economics
3. Statistics for Management - Levin Rubin
4. Petersen Lewis - Managerial Economics

Start reading the first book. Then book 4. Book 3 is independent. Book 2 is optional.

Don't remember the book for econometrics. This will become important, in case you decide finance.
 
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bonobashi

Well-Known member
Dec 3, 2017
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Then my suggestion is as below :

1. Samuelson Nordhaus - Economics / Microeconomics / Macroeconomics
2. Dominic Salvator - International Economics
3. Statistics for Management - Levin Rubin
4. Petersen Lewis - Managerial Economics

Start reading the first book. Then book 4. Book 3 is independent. Book 2 is optional.

Don't remember the book for econometrics. This will become important, in case you decide finance.
Good recommendations, but I would suggest either Facts from Figures by M. J. Moroney; that is a far lighter approach for MBA students who really aren't going into any serious statistical measurement that exceeds built-in formulae in Excel; or the really classical Statistics for Psychology and Education by Henry C. Garrett. This latter is far more involved than Moroney, but nowhere near Mood & Graybill; at least two world class economists whom I know of have been trained on this, as has been that exquisite *censored*, Ashok Lahiri. It has to be good, having worked for such a diverse selection.

On econometrics, I suspect you are thinking of Lawrence Klein - Lawrence Robert Klein? I read it, I passed the damn' course, but it was a nightmare. I'd rather drive a knitting needle into my eye than go back there. Both the famous economists - and the infamous one! - were strong on Eco'trics, and I guess that is the boundary line.
 
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Guynextdoor

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Dec 19, 2017
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The issue is the precedent it will set if India acquiesces to what developed countries want. Essentially they want to be able to sell their subsidized (given the inertia of the capital investment they did in pre-WTO period) overcapacity/production to India and India feels (with quite some evidence to back it) it will undercut Indian farmers....in a period when Indian farming is in a massive state of flux and needs much more competition/fluidity within its own borders.

WTO has not lost all relevance. India simply must hold firm rather on its specific nationally determined goals and strategy (and do much internal reform there over time) than to outsource this to some globalist dictat. However WTO holds importance for India in such areas as pharma, IT, BPO etc and even for the MII push now...anything that involves moving something developed outside India to be produced inside India esp for export. That's why India must remain engaged. Its not like the UN where almost nothing ever gets done....there is hard money to be had by playing well at WTO.

In light of all of this, Suresh Prabhu did a good job. But any minister would have probably done so (even under UPA)...because India's position looks firm and solid here....and building up its own volume of heritage now.

I am all for free trade, but it has to be truly free trade in level playing field. India however has to realise at some point that the only way to make farmers wealthier is to reduce the number of people involved in farming by providing more jobs in other sectors (i.e industry + services + urbanisation). You are never going to double and triple production in agri output anymore now (in time scales other production is doing), you can only halve and then quarter the number of farmers making that current level of production (by mechanization etc). Only when India gets to that stage will it make real sense to discuss with the WTO countries how to open access for farming products on both sides. Farming is a heritage sector that India was doing in large scale even at its worst parts of history, so thats why this argument extends to it more specifically than say newer industries largely brought by external forces of industrialisation and globalisation.
Nothing you have written is true. India is not in a strong position on anything in wto. Every single position has been maintained with trench warfare and we have lost some too. I don’t even know if you have anything to back this up or if you’re just typing in your fantasies.
 

Guynextdoor

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Dec 19, 2017
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Then my suggestion is as below :

1. Samuelson Nordhaus - Economics / Microeconomics / Macroeconomics
2. Dominic Salvator - International Economics
3. Statistics for Management - Levin Rubin
4. Petersen Lewis - Managerial Economics

Start reading the first book. Then book 4. Book 3 is independent. Book 2 is optional.

Don't remember the book for econometrics. This will become important, in case you decide finance.
Those are hardcore books and most discussions here are about economic issues than core economic theories
 

Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
510
1,191
Nothing you have written is true. India is not in a strong position on anything in wto. Every single position has been maintained with trench warfare and we have lost some too. I don’t even know if you have anything to back this up or if you’re just typing in your fantasies.
Yes yes, because guynextdoor says so.

"anything to back this up"....ummm have you followed India's position at the WTO (including under your loverboys UPA) the last cpl decades or so?
 
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Guynextdoor

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Dec 19, 2017
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Yes yes, because guynextdoor says so.

"anything to back this up"....ummm have you followed India's position at the WTO (including under your loverboys UPA) the last cpl decades or so?
You have any ideas on what kinds of bloodbath has taken place in subsequent rounds of wto. You think on pharmaceutical and other ip the companies just handed it over. Your just channeling your pet fantasies here.
 

Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
510
1,191
You have any ideas on what kinds of bloodbath has taken place in subsequent rounds of wto. You think on pharmaceutical and other ip the companies just handed it over. Your just channeling your pet fantasies here.
I let the agri foreign trade/total agri output do the talking for India. Tell me when it shifts even 1 percent....actually tell me if you even know the level to begin with.
 

Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
510
1,191
Are you for real?
Either tell me (I very well know it and understand your reluctance given you either dont know or know it sewers your argument, but lets see if you can debate with actual evidence rather than one-line quips) what India imported agri wise (given thats what the rest of the developed WTO wants to increase) as % of total agri output, now, 5 years ago, 10 years ago and continue it as far back as you want to go and have data for (and then compare it to other large agricultural producers both in level and trend)...or we have reached the end of the conversation here.

"Are you for real" <-----lul
 

Guynextdoor

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Dec 19, 2017
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Either tell me (I very well know it and understand your reluctance given you either dont know or know it sewers your argument, but lets see if you can debate with actual evidence rather than one-line quips) what India imported agri wise (given thats what the rest of the developed WTO wants to increase) as % of total agri output, now, 5 years ago, 10 years ago and continue it as far back as you want to go and have data for (and then compare it to other large agricultural producers both in level and trend)...or we have reached the end of the conversation here.

"Are you for real" <-----lul
Some day I will have the ability to bs like you and compo7nd stupidity with ignorance and still sound scholarly. Until then I’m not feeding the amateur. Stick to engineering.
 

Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
510
1,191
Some day I will have the ability to bs like you and compo7nd stupidity with ignorance and still sound scholarly. Until then I’m not feeding the amateur. Stick to engineering.
K more ad hominem (typical butthurt congressi style) instead of actual evidence for an assertion.

I'll illustrate the figures later if any other people show interest on the matter.

Till then go pollute some other thread, thanks.
 

Shajida Khan

Senior member
Dec 27, 2017
1,524
1,579
Seattle
Those are hardcore books and most discussions here are about economic issues than core economic theories
Oh well. Without having basic knowledge of economics, the entire discussion becomes moot. Sometimes earlier I had the misfortune of talking to some Chinese on PDF. He hated GDP PPP because it seems too 'easy' according to him. Devil knows what that means. Then I had misfortune of talking with another Pakistani who thought that somehow 'rebasing' increases production/consumption and hence GDP. It is most irritating to talk to a person who knows nothing about what they are talking about. You cann't talk about issues without knowing what they are.
 
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