Ukraine - Russia Flare Up

Milspec

सर्वदा शक्तिशाली; सर्वत्र विजय
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_Anonymous_

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Why though, Russia is an ally, Ukrainians directly arm Paks. Let them sort it out bilaterally.
Ideally yes. But Ukraine's voice seems drowned out by the west . All we seem to hear is western opposition & Russia's views. We don't know what the Ukranian stand is neither are we aware of any Russo Ukranian negotiations.

How should India react ? I don't think India has any interest in being dragged into this mess just as I don't think any of the players expect much from India but to sit it out .

India can't afford to be indifferent to the Ukranian position as in principle India's is in a similar situation being at the receiving end of Chinese aggression. Technically India ought to be supportive of the Ukranian position. However we both know that given India's relationship & a certain amount of dependency on Russia it's not going to happen.

At the same time we can't & won't be voicing our support for the Russian position as well. Can't coz of the LAC , won't coz we don't want to get sucked into an unnecessary diplomatic slugfest & antagonize the west .

Besides I didn't hear of any public statement from Russia in our favour all thru the incidents on the LAC though behind the scenes it's been understood that Russia was doing it's utmost to defuse tensions partly at India's request , possibly at the behest of the Chinese too besides in pursuit of it's own agenda of building up an RIC front to combat western aggression at least on the diplomatic & economic front.
 
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Innominate

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She's vicious... und pretty too.

Oy vey. Russia can send 200k soldiers near Ukraine but until they are staged couple miles from UK border US and west should just chill.

I'm pretty sure US/Europe and Ukraine will have at least 2-3 days heads up when Russian tanks and hundreds of other armored vehicles start staging from their parking spots to couple miles from Ukraine border.
 

_Anonymous_

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She's vicious... und pretty too.

Oy vey. Russia can send 200k soldiers near Ukraine but until they are staged couple miles from UK border US and west should just chill.

I'm pretty sure US/Europe and Ukraine will have at least 2-3 days heads up when Russian tanks and hundreds of other armored vehicles start staging from their parking spots to couple miles from Ukraine border.
Interesting . What exactly do you think NATO / US would do once Russian tanks commence their blitzkrieg across the Ukranian border ?
 

randomradio

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Oy vey. Russia can send 200k soldiers near Ukraine but until they are staged couple miles from UK border US and west should just chill.

No, it's a pretty good deal for the US. The US has prodded the bear enough that a lot of trust has eroded even between the EU and Russia. The Russians have been pushed to a corner to such an extent that they can no longer back out. But even they know it's too early for them to go to war today. The US knows that, hence it's a good move. So it's good for them to keep up the pressure at the cost of security of both the EU and Russia. It keeps the Russians occupied, and the EU continues to remain an American dependency when it comes to security. So, as long as the US doesn't actively interfere in Ukraine, they win.

Dumbass Germany. I hope this is a lesson for them. But I doubt they will learn.

I'm pretty sure US/Europe and Ukraine will have at least 2-3 days heads up when Russian tanks and hundreds of other armored vehicles start staging from their parking spots to couple miles from Ukraine border.

It will be a day at best. The question is what NATO will do about it. I bet, nothing.
 

Innominate

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It will be a day at best.

Majority of Russian armor is 125-200 miles from Ukraine border. Once the order is given they will stage 40-50 miles which will be seen by US/NATO/EU ISR and whatever Ukraine has. Seeing hundreds of Russian armor moving closer to Ukraine will be obviously seen as an imminent invasion. So from their parking spots to staging area its going to take at least 2 days if they want to go in with overwhelming force.
The question is what NATO will do about it. I bet, nothing.

My head says US/NATO will do nothing... I just have this feeling the people pulling sleepy Joe's strings/folks who are really running the US are setting us up for a conflict. I mean the world has gone nuts and we're living in pestilence pretty much so I don't trust these people.

Putting my Spidey senses aside I think the only action will be a US/NATO mobilization in NATO nations bordering Russia and Ukraine since these nations will actually demand it. But even then doing that feels like a set up. Understand that right now US and NATO ISR planes fly over Ukraine with Ukraine's blessing is the US or NATO going to stop flying these planes over Ukraine when Russia invades? What happens if Russia shoots down a US/NATO ISR plane? See how easily this can turn into a US/NATO involvement?

US Air Force ramps up intel flights, weapons shipments to Ukraine​

-Some American troops are on standby as the world waits to see whether Russia will invade Ukraine, but the U.S. Air Force’s involvement in the conflict is already well underway.

U.S. and allied reconnaissance flights in the region have been ongoing since at least Dec. 24, dispatching multiple types of military planes to serve as extra eyes and ears over Eastern Europe.

On Wednesday alone, aviation radar-tracking sites showed at least eight American and Swedish aircraft flying over Ukraine, the Black Sea and the Baltics. They included two RC-135V/W Rivet Joint planes equipped to listen in on communications signals and an RQ-4 Global Hawk drone that gathers high-altitude images and other data through various sensors.

The Global Hawk may have been peering down at a string of Russian troops built up along the border it shares with Ukraine, as well as to the smaller country’s south, expert analysis posted online suggests.

“This is the second RQ-4 flight to make this pattern in the last week, making use of the same airframe,” aviation tracking hobbyist Amelia Smith tweeted Monday. “There is a possibility that we will see the return of the daily RQ-4 flights over and around Ukraine.”

She noted an MQ-9 Reaper drone’s visit to Russian-occupied Crimea in southern Ukraine on Jan. 21. Twitter user @ZaesADSB, another flight tracker, caught an E-8C Joint STARS jet — designed to track the movement of ground targets — headed east over Ukraine three days earlier as well.

They’ve been joined by Rivet Joints, E-3 airborne target tracking planes, P-8 antisubmarine patrol jets and other military airframes flown by NATO, the United Kingdom, Germany and the U.S. Army and Navy. Spokespeople for U.S. European Command and Air Force officials in the region did not respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

“One of this command’s primary tasks is to provide indications and warning of military developments to our nation’s leaders and we also contribute to NATO’s shared understanding of developments in Europe,” EUCOM spokesperson Lt. Cmdr. Russ Wolfkiel told Air Force Times when contacted about the U.S. response to a similar Russian troop buildup last spring. “With regard to U.S. activities, I can tell you that we have been watching the situation in Ukraine very closely and USAFE’s contributions with airborne ISR are indispensable to maintaining a coherent picture of ongoing developments. However, in the interest of operational security and as a matter of policy we do not provide details on specific missions.”

See how easily things can turn? Why would the US/NATO stop their recon flights when they have the right to be there? What happens as it starts to get real US/NATO decides to have fighters escort these recon planes and these fighters feel Russian fighters are getting aggressively close and shoot them down?

This is a set up. US/NATO will obviously allow Russia to invade to make them look like the bully which won't be hard and now thrown in the big bully Russians shooting down a US/NATO recon plane that has the right to be there and you have the excuse the US needs to use force.
 

randomradio

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Majority of Russian armor is 125-200 miles from Ukraine border. Once the order is given they will stage 40-50 miles which will be seen by US/NATO/EU ISR and whatever Ukraine has. Seeing hundreds of Russian armor moving closer to Ukraine will be obviously seen as an imminent invasion. So from their parking spots to staging area its going to take at least 2 days if they want to go in with overwhelming force.

That's a distance that can be covered in 12 hours or less for Russian tank units. Even the much slower American armour can cover twice that distance in a day in uncontested territory.

Putting my Spidey senses aside I think the only action will be a US/NATO mobilization in NATO nations bordering Russia and Ukraine since these nations will actually demand it. But even then doing that feels like a set up. Understand that right now US and NATO ISR planes fly over Ukraine with Ukraine's blessing is the US or NATO going to stop flying these planes over Ukraine when Russia invades? What happens if Russia shoots down a US/NATO ISR plane? See how easily this can turn into a US/NATO involvement?

Won't be a problem. NATO won't fly ISR planes in Ukraine without contesting the airspace. They will just retreat when the Russians come in, and the Russians will allow them to leave too. Post the warning time, they will attack whatever's left, so it's up to NATO to retaliate. If NATO retaliates, then we are looking at a major war, so I doubt it will come to that.

NATO could provide air support even during a war, without it escalating to something unmanageable, but Ukraine is so weak that it's gonna be pointless without NATO boots on the ground.
 

Innominate

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That's a distance that can be covered in 12 hours or less for Russian tank units. Even the much slower American armour can cover twice that distance in a day in uncontested territory.

The invasion is not going to start 200 miles from the border. T90s and T72b3's need to refuel after 200 miles and will be vulnerable to choke points between that distance. They will be brought 40-50 miles from the border set up in their Russian mechanized formation and go from there.
Won't be a problem. NATO won't fly ISR planes in Ukraine without contesting the airspace. They will just retreat when the Russians come in, and the Russians will allow them to leave too.

Will they just retreat? Not a NATO ISR plane and definitely not a US ISR plane but maybe a Euro nation ISR plane.

NATO currently is under the command of a USAF General. Lol. That NATO ISR plane aint going nowhere.
Post the warning time, they will attack whatever's left, so it's up to NATO to retaliate. If NATO retaliates, then we are looking at a major war, so I doubt it will come to that.

This is what I mean about this being a set up to give NATO/US the excuse to intervene militarily.

NATO could provide air support even during a war, without it escalating to something unmanageable, but Ukraine is so weak that it's gonna be pointless without NATO boots on the ground.

NATO/US can easily make Ukranian airspace a no Russian fly zone especially if Russia shoots down US/NATO plane. That is where Ukraine ground forces can inflict heavy casualties in the territories Russia has captured especially with the weapons that will be pouring in by the west.

This might just save Biden and his failing presidency.
 
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randomradio

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Will they just retreat? Not a NATO ISR plane and definitely not a US ISR plane but maybe a Euro nation ISR plane.

NATO currently is under the command of a USAF General. Lol. That NATO ISR plane aint going nowhere.


This is what I mean about this being a set up to give NATO/US the excuse to intervene militarily.



NATO/US can easily make Ukranian airspace a no Russian fly zone especially if Russia shoots down US/NATO plane. That is where Ukraine ground forces can inflict heavy casualties in the territories Russia has captured especially with the weapons that will be pouring in by the west.

This might just save Biden and his failing presidency.

As usual, you underestimate the Russians. They can shoot down NATO planes, even the F-22 and B-2.
 

_Anonymous_

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The invasion is not going to start 200 miles from the border. T90s and T72b3's need to refuel after 200 miles and will be vulnerable to choke points between that distance. They will be brought 40-50 miles from the border set up in their Russian mechanized formation and go from there.


Will they just retreat? Not a NATO ISR plane and definitely not a US ISR plane but maybe a Euro nation ISR plane.

NATO currently is under the command of a USAF General. Lol. That NATO ISR plane aint going nowhere.


This is what I mean about this being a set up to give NATO/US the excuse to intervene militarily.



NATO/US can easily make Ukranian airspace a no Russian fly zone especially if Russia shoots down US/NATO plane. That is where Ukraine ground forces can inflict heavy casualties in the territories Russia has captured especially with the weapons that will be pouring in by the west.

This might just save Biden and his failing presidency.
Man, this guy ought to be made TT with immediate effect. He's giving our desi storyteller real competition. @Milspec
 

Innominate

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As usual, you underestimate the Russians. They can shoot down NATO planes, even the F-22 and B-2.

4th gen fighters alone without Stealth fighter support... very possible. But they won't be shooting down any wolfpack of F-35s or F-22s and likely 4th gen fighters supported by 5th gen fighters. I don't underestimate the Russians I just see what they don't have on their fighters.
 

randomradio

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4th gen fighters alone without Stealth fighter support... very possible. But they won't be shooting down any wolfpack of F-35s or F-22s and likely 4th gen fighters supported by 5th gen fighters. I don't underestimate the Russians I just see what they don't have on their fighters.

Without next gen fighters, they can't take the fight into NATO airspace. But their air defences paired with their Flankers are enough to keep themselves alive. And the battlefield is too small for NATO's greater numbers to come into play.

Anyway, NATO's gonna run off before the fight, so it doesn't really matter.
 

Innominate

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Without next gen fighters, they can't take the fight into NATO airspace. But their air defences paired with their Flankers are enough to keep themselves alive. And the battlefield is too small for NATO's greater numbers to come into play.
Map_of_Ukraine_political_enwiki.png


Russia aint moving their s400s inside Ukraine they will be easy targets for Ukraine Gorillas, SEAD/DEAD fighters like F-35s and cruise missiles.

Any SAM system Russia moves into Ukraine is dead if US/NATO intervenes militarily. Remember the 40N6 missile the s400 carries that range is for large non fighter aircraft flying at high altitude and not defending. Btw and how many of those missiles to they have? How many of that expensive missile are they willing to waste on fighters likely not hitting any?
Anyway, NATO's gonna run off before the fight, so it doesn't really matter.

Those ISR planes wont be going nowhere they will remain to serve a purpose.
 

randomradio

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Russia aint moving their s400s inside Ukraine they will be easy targets for Ukraine Gorillas, SEAD/DEAD fighters like F-35s and cruise missiles.

Any SAM system Russia moves into Ukraine is dead if US/NATO intervenes militarily. Remember the 40N6 missile the s400 carries that range is for large non fighter aircraft flying at high altitude and not defending. Btw and how many of those missiles to they have? How many of that expensive missile are they willing to waste on fighters likely not hitting any?

That's not how SAMs work. You may have stealth and PGMs. But the Russians, if they end up not being able to shoot down the F-35, they can still shoot down the PGM. So that makes your F-35 useless.

The entire point of stealth is to get close enough to the enemy so that your PGM's short range does not give the SAM enough time to shoot them down. So for a PGM, the JDAM is effective inside a 30Km radius. You really think even a single S-400 radar cannot pick up an F-35 from 30Km? Otoh, a multistatic ADS will be able to detect the F-35 from BVR distances, long enough to kill the F-35 before it can release long range bombs like the SDB.

Also, the S-400 isn't the only SAM. Even the Russian Army have their own S-400 equivalent SAMs, they are on tracks and move with armour. And they have plenty of other smaller SAMs that complement the larger SAMs, like the Tor, Buk etc. The US Army doesn't operate SAMs, but the Ru Army does.

Then let's put the numbers in perspective. For just 5 regiments, India was ready to make 6000 SAMs.
The deal also includes purchase of about 6,000 missiles from Russia.

Otoh, the Russians operate 28 regiments of the S-400 alone. Their S-300 family is even bigger, especially the army SAMs. So you can be sure they have more than enough missiles to finish the job without even needing to kill a single F-35.

Those ISR planes wont be going nowhere they will remain to serve a purpose.

Good luck.