Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions
- Thread starter Ashwin
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Looks like the Democrats have finally buckled under the pressure of their Islamo-Leftist voter base.
www.bbc.com
2,000-pounders and artillery shells....we should be able to supply those. OFAJ recently commenced exports of M107 shells to an unknown customer.
US reveals it paused shipment of bombs for Israel over Rafah concerns
A bomb shipment was halted last week over concerns Israel was going ahead with a Rafah offensive.
www.bbc.com
2,000-pounders and artillery shells....we should be able to supply those. OFAJ recently commenced exports of M107 shells to an unknown customer.
I don't think any ceasefire will last more than a few weeks. There are a few reasons for this, but I think that Israel will not only go into Rafah but will also go after Hezbollah next.
Hezbollah is currently lobbing rockets and mortars into northern Israel and there are 100k-250k displaced Israelis as a result of this. They won't go back until they feel safe, and they won't feel safe so long as Hezbollah remains in southern Lebanon.
The issue is fighting against Hezbollah is a different beast versus Hamas in Gaza. The Lebanese countryside features forests, mountains, urban areas, etc. There are way more Hezbollah fighters, and they are better equipped on average. The only real issue Israel has in Gaza is avoiding killing too many civilians. The issue Israel will have in Lebanon is a protracted war of attrition while sustaining barrages of ballistic missiles. Israel will need all its strength for this and so Hamas in Gaza will have to be dealt with first.
Ultimately Israel will be forced to seek a end to the conflict like they did in 2006. Some UN resolution or treaty which nobody will abide by, but a Hezbollah that is severely devastated and will take time to rebuild and rearm. This will bring back a quiet border with which Israelis can return to their homes in the north. I'm not sure about the fate of Gaza. Ideally a coalition of nations would serve as its steward while a Marshall-lite plan is instituted to rebuild and deradicalize the population. Fat chance but one can hope.
The other factor to consider is Netanyahu. His political career (and honestly personal freedom) depends on him continuing this war. He has a coalition now but that will only last til the conflict ends. He has a lot of enemies inside and outside of Israel. Likely he hopes to do a good enough job crushing neighboring hostiles to earn enough goodwill so he can eventually peacefully retire instead of facing incarceration or deportation by an opposition government to the Hague.
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Hezbollah is professional (Competent) and also much more closer to Iran than Hamas. US will not want a full on war between Israel and Iran and it proxies, especially with Ukraine's situation is looking more dire day by day.
By now it should be obvious that Israel isn't going to accommodate every single US instruction on how & where to fight its enemies. They will be acting on their own, as & when it's considered to be in Israel's interest.
US is either gonna have to support over the table, under the table, via paying off proxies for supply instead or risk making it look like they abandoned an Ally in need...which for sure is gonna do wonders for the confidence in their Alliance structures across the world.
Wars like Vietnam or the campaign in Libya were waged for the sole purpose of upholding confidence in that structure.
Unless there's a miracle (e.g. internal coup/collapse), Russia is gonna win in Ukraine. It's a matter of when, not if...and a matter of how much the West is gonna make it cost them. The US for sure isn't gonna be left holding the ball when it all turns into a mess. They can't afford another Afghanistan-like debacle.
Stepping up support for Israel may yet become a winning strategy for diverting attention from that failure...especially if Dems lose.
Hezbollah is a one trick pony Israel will be the aggressor in this war striking first at hezbollah rocket positions unlike 2006 where hezbollah caught Israel by surprised. Iran is not going to get involved if it gets involved the US gets involved it's just that simple. This time Israel won't be nice and may fulfill a Bible prophecy about Elam.
Also what the US says in public is not US true intention/policy. They say they don't want a confrontation with Russia pretty transparently yet at the same time they armed Ukraine with capabilities that hurts Russian forces. Don't always believe what you hear coming out of the mouths of US politicians when it comes to US not wanting war. It's all a show to position itself as the nation that didn't want war but was forced into one.
Spain denies port call to vessel carrying shipment of ‘arms to Israel from India’
The Spanish foreign minister says 'the Middle East does not need more weapons, it needs more peace'. Spain has been very critical of Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
SNEHESH ALEX PHILIP
17 May, 2024 09:08 am IST
SNEHESH ALEX PHILIP
17 May, 2024 09:08 am IST
New Delhi: Spain has refused port call to a Danish-flagged merchant vessel carrying “27 tonnes of explosive material from India to Israel” saying the middle east “requires peace and not more weapons”.
“This is the first time we have done this because it is the first time we have detected a ship carrying a shipment of arms to Israel that wants to call at a Spanish port,” Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares Bueno told reporters in Brussels.
He said that the ship in question was Marianne Danica which had requested permission to call at Cartagena on 21 May. Permissions to call are requested by merchant vessels travelling long distances for replenishments.
“We have detected this ship, we have refused to allow it to dock, and I can tell you that this will be a consistent policy with any ship carrying Israeli arms and arms cargo that wants to dock in Spanish ports,” he was quoted as saying in media reports emerging from Spain.
El Pais newspaper said the Danish-flagged ship is carrying 27 tonnes of explosive material from Chennai in India to the port of Haifa in Israel, The Guardian reported. Incidentally, Chennai is one of the main port cities through which India imports and exports explosive-related stuff.
Speaking further on the matter, the Spanish foreign minister said, “This will be a consistent policy with any ship carrying arms to Israel that wants to call at Spanish ports. The foreign ministry will systematically reject such stopovers for one obvious reason: the Middle East does not need more weapons, it needs more peace.”
Spain has been very critical of Israel’s offensive in Gaza and is rallying other European countries to recognise a Palestinian state. Spain halted arms sales to Israel after it launched a military onslaught against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
While India is Israel’s biggest defence buyer, it is understood that Israel is sourcing several military-related materials from India, including from state-owned enterprises and from private companies Israeli firms have partnerships with in India. The military-related gear includes fuses, munitions along with composite structures of drones and loitering munitions from at least two private firms in India besides completely assembled ones.
Reuters had in February reported, quoting Israeli sources, that “Israel’s operations have created a growing need for ammunition”.
India has been focusing big on increasing its defence production and is pursuing several export opportunities.
Sources in the defence and security establishment refused to get into details of whether India is exporting military related equipment and material to Israel but said that there is no violation of international rules and regulations governing transfer of such goods to anywhere.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
Spain denies port call to vessel carrying shipment of ‘arms to Israel from India’
The Spanish foreign minister says 'the Middle East does not need more weapons, it needs more peace'. Spain has been very critical of Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
theprint.in
++++
"Middle East needs more peace, not more weapons."
"Middle East needs more peace, not more weapons."
Huh. I wonder if they thought that when they were sending their tanks & missiles to Ukraine?
List of arms transferred by Spain to Ukraine:
Spain Has Supplied Ukraine with €190 mln Worth of Weapons, 20 More Leopard 2A4s On Their Way — Media | Defense Express
Official aid report from Madrid reveals the amount of equipment already sent as well as some of the future provisions
en.defence-ua.com
What delusional jokers.
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EU sanctions Iran's defence minister, IRGC over drones, missiles
Brussels, Belgium (AFP) May 31, 2024 - The European Union on Friday imposed sanctions on Iran's defence minister, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, and the country's Revolutionary Guards for sending missiles and drones being used against Israel and Ukraine and in the Red Sea.
www.spacewar.com
Now if only they could do the same for migrant vessels.
You guys believe an unnamed tweeter without even a picture or video?
one of the israels bases got attacked yesterday by hezzbollah with heavy destruction , chances are critical early warning equipment might have been also hit.
Looks like the French shot down at least one of the Shaheed that Iran launched at Israel a few weeks ago:
This aircraft is seen taking off from Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan, codenamed BAP H5 in the French air force.
This aircraft is seen taking off from Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan, codenamed BAP H5 in the French air force.