Rafale RB of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

Dawg-69

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Feb 23, 2021
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If Rafale can't make it, then the Typhoon definitely won't. And we also know the procurement cost of SH+Growler is more expensive as per DSCA's estimate. So I feel the competition will be between the F-35 and Gripen. Only these two can offer all 64 jets below the benchmark price.
Of course Typhoon can make it to the final round. They will offer fewer jets. Any jet could make it, if they offer fewer units.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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No no no... Super Hornet offer is 64 jets. The DSCA package mentions double seaters, but they are not in the final offer. Only single-seaters and Growlers.

Regarding Rafale, procurement cost can not be higher than others. Every offer has the same budget. Maybe it's 40 planes, maybe it's fifty planes, maybe it's thirty, but this is a fit-to-cost business. Cost is a given, and seller fits the offer to cost.

Budget is the same for all contestants. Not one of them are more expensive to procure than the others. Operating costs are a different thing. They will vary.

If the Finnish are willing to accept lesser jets, then even the operating costs can be manipulated the same way. I mean if a jet is 10% above benchmark for operating costs, then they can offer their price based on 10% less flying hours. So I guess all competitors can meet benchmark pricing this way. Weird.
 

Dawg-69

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Feb 23, 2021
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It's simple, if the first three criteria are not met, the competitor will not progress towards technical evaluations. So if all 5 jets are undergoing or have already undergone flight trials, then all 5 jets have managed to meet the benchmark prices.

So are flight trials happening, yet to happen or finished?
I can't follow, sorry... flight trials were last winter. It was called "HX challenge". The final round is done by simulations.

The three fail/pass gates apply to the final round, not HX challenge. HX challenge is behind.
 

Dawg-69

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Feb 23, 2021
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If the Finnish are willing to accept lesser jets, then even the operating costs can be manipulated the same way. I mean if a jet is 10% above benchmark for operating costs, then they can offer their price based on 10% less flying hours. So I guess all competitors can meet benchmark pricing this way. Weird.

Well isn't that kind of like the whole point? The buyer wants all competitors to meet benchmark pricing. If every seller comes as close as possible to the optimal price, then the money is best spent.

The budget is not going to change. It is best to spend it all. A lower price will mean lost opportunity.

This is pretty much my whole point. In Finland, if someone says that the budget is ten million, then it's ten million. It is not nine million, it is not eleven million. It is not 9.99 million. It is not 10.1 million. It is ten million.

In Russia, this is not the case. But there is nothing Russian involved in this deal.

Finland and Russia are like night and day, the difference in culture is enormous.
 

Dawg-69

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Feb 23, 2021
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Let us sum it up. LM is offering 64 F-35's for this budget.

So far so good, but operating costs are separate from purchase costs.

If operating costs are higher than for current Hornets, LM will be disqualified.

To me it seems like LM is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole here.

Conclusion: LM will be disqualified. No F-35 for Finland. This is my conclusion.

Same applies to every other plane. Like said, if every contestant fails to meet the budget, every contestant fails. Everyone goes home.

But why would that happen? Anyone can make a proper deal. So why is LM offering 64 planes? At least one seller is sure to make a deal that fits within the budget, because it is actually in their own interest.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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India
I can't follow, sorry... flight trials were last winter. It was called "HX challenge". The final round is done by simulations.

The three fail/pass gates apply to the final round, not HX challenge. HX challenge is behind.

I found this interesting article. It details everything since it was written by the program director of the HX.


So there are flight trials, where they compare real world results with OEM's RFQ. Then there is the best and final offer phase where OEMs are expected to make their offer to the limits of the budget. After that is the operational assessment.

And yeah, the operational assessment is a simulation. I thought there will be flight testing, but I was wrong there.
In the last phase of the evaluation, the military will require candidate aircraft take part in a simulated, long-term war game to determine the operational efficiency of each candidate’s proffered HX system, including entire life-cycle costs.

@Picdelamirand-oil
It is presumable that the candidates will have “aces” up their sleeves, i.e. capabilities that will be released to us only after the procurement decision has been made.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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Let us sum it up. LM is offering 64 F-35's for this budget.

So far so good, but operating costs are separate from purchase costs.

If operating costs are higher than for current Hornets, LM will be disqualified.

To me it seems like LM is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole here.

Conclusion: LM will be disqualified. No F-35 for Finland. This is my conclusion.

Same applies to every other plane. Like said, if every contestant fails to meet the budget, every contestant fails. Everyone goes home.

But why would that happen? Anyone can make a proper deal. So why is LM offering 64 planes? At least one seller is sure to make a deal that fits within the budget, because it is actually in their own interest.

If LM is offering 64 jets, then we can assume they will meet the benchmark pricing for operational costs as well. It's only logical.

LM - 64 F-35As
Boeing - 50 SHs, 14 Growlers
SAAB - 64 Gripen E, 2 GlobalEye AWACS
Dassault, Airbus - Unknown Rafales and Typhoons

It automatically implies Dassault and Airbus have failed to match the requirement of 64 jets.

I feel the winner is obvious. So now I'm hoping at least some information is released.

Another interesting thing here:
“Security and defense policy implications will be assessed separately outside of the actual tendering process,” the Finnish Defense Forces said in a statement.

They are basically saying politics will be kept out.
 

Innominate

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Jun 23, 2021
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California
No no. Here the defense minister of Finland is saying: "we are not going to buy a plane that we can not afford to fly".

Luckily for Finland F-35 will be affordable to fly.

Use your favourite translator ;)


Even Typhoon becomes affordable, if the fleet is smaller. Lockheed is saying that their offer is 64 planes. My interpretation is that maybe they KNOW that they will lose. EDIT: actually, this was not my idea, I just read it somewhere, but it sounds about right.

Too much baseless assumption on your part almost wishful thinking by you but that will not be the case and you mentally have to prepare yourself that Finland is going to select the F-35 and conclusion will be it's cheaper to operate than the rest destroying your wish of a Euro plane.
 

Innominate

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Jun 23, 2021
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California
I don't think they are inferior planes!

By F-35 standard they are. If your enemy is Russia they are. If your enemy is a bunch of cave dwelling jihadis carrying AKs or a destroyed nation like Syria, Libya and Iraq they are not inferior.

F-35 can go where these 4th gen fighters can't especially against a nation that has very advanced IADS and advanced 4th gen fighters of their own.

4th gen fighters are on the verge of being obsolete against Russia which is Finlands #1 potential foe. Luckily for Finland their defense officials know this and don't make decisions on emotions but on reality.
 

Dawg-69

Member
Feb 23, 2021
116
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Finland
If LM is offering 64 jets, then we can assume they will meet the benchmark pricing for operational costs as well. It's only logical.
Nope. Last time around, there were only two aircraft that met the requirements. However, the public did not know this. We waited for 25 years to find out.

It is the same this time. Maybe only two jets are actually meeting the requirements. Maybe one. We won't know for 25 years though.
Luckily for Finland F-35 will be affordable to fly.

No, it won't be.
 

Dawg-69

Member
Feb 23, 2021
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Finland
4th gen fighters are on the verge of being obsolete against Russia which is Finlands #1 potential foe. Luckily for Finland their defense officials know this and don't make decisions on emotions but on reality.
Actually, countries with a real defence need choose Rafale
 

Dawg-69

Member
Feb 23, 2021
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Finland
They are basically saying politics will be kept out.
To what extent this is actually true, is anyone's guess. The HX team has been receiving political guidance all the time, Puranen admitted this in the latest interview. So at least indirectly, politicians are taking part in the process.

One interesting thing is that the people inside the HX team are not allowed to inform each other. The groups for different sections are walled in. So if someone is working on Rafale, he/she will not know what is going on with Gripen. If someone is working on Superbug, he/she will not know what is happening with F-35. And so on.
 

Dawg-69

Member
Feb 23, 2021
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Haha, now this little infograph from Francis Tusa found it's way to the number one Finnish forum, where F-35 fanboys rule... they banned me, but now doubt is setting in! Only a short time will HXmas!!!!

kost.jpeg

Just look at the list nations that fly the french plane compared to F-35.
Finland? Maybe?
 

Bon Plan

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Dec 1, 2017
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France
Finnish article published ten minutes ago: "Can Finland afford to fly the F-35?"

There was the same kind of article in the swiss tabloid some month ago.....
I'm just watching if and when sleepy Joe will meet the finnish top brass to explain them what is the sole choice.
I have great confidence in the Finnish procurement process.
:cautious::cautious::cautious:
 

Bon Plan

Senior member
Dec 1, 2017
2,449
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France
Countries that fly the french plane are not offered the F-35. :ROFLMAO:

Just look at the list nations that fly the french plane compared to F-35.
F35 is not offered to India, nor Egypt. The US top brass are clever enough to understand they need a potent fighter.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
15,516
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India
Nope. Last time around, there were only two aircraft that met the requirements. However, the public did not know this. We waited for 25 years to find out.

It is the same this time. Maybe only two jets are actually meeting the requirements. Maybe one. We won't know for 25 years though.

As per them the simulated operational assessment will not be done on jets that do not meet the BAFO. So we need to see if some jets are ejected before the operational assessment was done.