Rafale RB of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

Picdelamirand-oil

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q

Means, its confirmed now that we are gonna produce it in Numbers? How many & which version?
Even for 36 we will produce them in India, because the offsets have allowed us to build an industrial ecosystem that allows us to do this given Dassault's military/civilian model.
Of course we hope that there will be other batches for India, but even if there were not, it would be viable.
 
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Lolwa

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Okay, maybe it works out for France, but that kind of calculation doesn't work for India. You may be happy with maintaining minimum capability and saving money, but for us, we want to keep pushing up the costs for our adversary.

For us 55 M2000 = 55 Rafale. Now the enemy has to match us with either 165 M2000 or 55 Rafale of their own. So 315 M2000 = 315 Rafale.

Also 9000 additional hours is not an addition of capability, it only saves more money. And any possible replacement is at least 18 years away and FCAS will be ready by then. IIRC, PANG is to become available in 2037, so your oldest Ms will need FCAS as replacement. I am simply saying if France's Rafale orders end with 225 in 2032, and no export orders happen, then that's the end of the production line.
I have a very strong feeling of 36 rafales and then MMRCA being given to f18 or f15
 

jk007

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Sir , the buzz on Twitter is that a Big order is coming from India

Now the question is How Big.
We will spend so much time dreaming + hoping + rejoicing.....it will only lead to increased frustration for us.

Today, I viewed a video from "indian defence updates" at YouTube. They are saying LCA MK2 will enter into production in year 2029. Not sure if MK2 is how much relevant then.

BTW- first impression (looks wise) the new IAF chief does not look like he can do impressive job (looks like sleepy Joe). The current one is better [sorry - had to write this to reduce some frustration levels].

The Chinese are sitting at border, and IAF is buying discarded planes. The order for those mig-29s & su30s is never arriving.

Maybe, India has given up on china....and China can take whatever she wants.
Sir , the buzz on Twitter is that a Big order is coming from India

Now the question is How Big.
We will spend so much time dreaming + hoping + rejoicing.....it will only lead to increased frustration for us.

Today, I viewed a video from "indian defence updates" at YouTube. They are saying LCA MK2 will enter into production in year 2029. Not sure if MK2 is how much relevant then.

BTW- first impression (looks wise) the new IAF chief does not look like he can do impressive job (looks like sleepy Joe). The current one is better [sorry - had to write this to reduce some frustration levels].

The Chinese are sitting at border, and IAF is buying discarded planes. The order for those mig-29s & su30s is never arriving.

Maybe, India has given up on china....and China can take whatever she wants.
 
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randomradio

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We hope to get new order from export! Trappier recently said that there were good prospects for the Rafale in the export market. India, Indonesia, Again Egypt, UAE, Finland, In ten years some of these prospects should be declared.

It's a problem if the line is dependent on exports. Also, assuming 22/year from next year until 2032 and 11/year until 2040 would mean we need a total order of 308 jets. Apart from 97 French jets, the orders available today are the 30 from Egypt and a potential 72 from India and Indonesia. I'm not counting Fin and UAE at this time. Anyway the total would be 199 jets. So 109 more jets are pending. And there's a possibility most or all of India's jets will come out of the Indian line. So we could say the orders for 109 to 145 jets are still pending if production is to go up to 2040. I guess we can add 6 more for Greece. So 103 to 139. Also, 88 of those should be ordered from 2030 onwards, with deliveries from 2033 to 2040.

Then again, that's only if some countries wait all the way until 2030. Instead many orders could come in well before 2025, forcing the French line to deliver 33/year or even 44/year in a very short time. I mean the Indian, Indonesian and UAE orders could come in between 2022 and 2024, with deliveries ending before 2032. A victory in Finland would also mean a contract before 2024, and delivery ending long before 2032. Even the potential third order by Egypt for 36 jets should come in by 2027 or so. Altogether, for export alone, France will be expected to deliver 168-232 jets between 2025 and 2032. So I don't see any long term Rafale production happening without French orders.

I have a very strong feeling of 36 rafales and then MMRCA being given to f18 or f15

Never gonna happen.
 
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Hydra

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I have a very strong feeling of 36 rafales and then MMRCA being given to f18 or f15
Same from me, us needs to buttered because of s400 in tri color, also to make quade a military alliance we may have to buy stuffs from them.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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Also, assuming 22/year from next year until 2032 and 11/year until 2040 would mean we need a total order of 308 jets.
22/year from next year until 2032 means 220 Rafale so we need 123 export order for the French assembly line to maintain this rate, but if we don't get these order, we will be down to 11/year and if we get a lot of order we will be up to 33/year. The flexibility allow us to adapt to the order.

We will reach 2032, what will be the production after that depend on export order in the 2029/2030 to be able to reach 2036/38. Perhaps France will order in advance 44 Rafale to fill a possible gap. It is also possible that used Rafales will be sold and replaced by new ones at that time.
 
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randomradio

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Probably not if the orders are for 36 jets. The CEO of Dassault has committed to domestic production only for an order of >100 jets.

Production comes in various forms, extending from building from scratch to assembling kits. When it comes to assembling kits, we can even assemble just 1, let alone 10 or even 36. However 36 is not just enough for kits assembly, we can even set up a final assembly line, where the fuselage sections, wings, control surfaces, engine, electronics and other parts made by subcontractors in France and are assembled in India. The French have already planned to set it up here, regardless of whether GoI orders more Rafales or not, since the same line will also produce Falcons.

The >100 jets is for full production where the airframe, engine and some electronics will also be made in India.
 

randomradio

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22/year from next year until 2032 means 220 Rafale so we need 123 export order for the French assembly line to maintain this rate, but if we don't get these order, we will be down to 11/year and if we get a lot of order we will be up to 33/year. The flexibility allow us to adapt to the order.

It will be interesting to see how France will manage if the export orderbook ends up being bigger than what France can deliver with a 33/year line.

If India, Indonesia, UAE, Qatar and Egypt need 11 per year each almost simultaneously, it will be impossible for France to deliver. 2025-30 will be extremely busy for Dassault.

It's the same story with the F-35, where, in just a few years, the line will have to generate up to 300 jets a year for at least 5-7 years once it enters FRP. But the difference is they are ready for it.

We will reach 2032, what will be the production after that depend on export order in the 2029/2030 to be able to reach 2036/38. Perhaps France will order in advance 44 Rafale to fill a possible gap. It is also possible that used Rafales will be sold and replaced by new ones at that time.

With the world headed towards a new cold war, the most foolish thing France would do is to close down the Rafale line prematurely.
 
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Picdelamirand-oil

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AbRaj

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We will spend so much time dreaming + hoping + rejoicing.....it will only lead to increased frustration for us.

Today, I viewed a video from "indian defence updates" at YouTube. They are saying LCA MK2 will enter into production in year 2029. Not sure if MK2 is how much relevant then.

BTW- first impression (looks wise) the new IAF chief does not look like he can do impressive job (looks like sleepy Joe). The current one is better [sorry - had to write this to reduce some frustration levels].

The Chinese are sitting at border, and IAF is buying discarded planes. The order for those mig-29s & su30s is never arriving.

Maybe, India has given up on china....and China can take whatever she wants.

We will spend so much time dreaming + hoping + rejoicing.....it will only lead to increased frustration for us.

Today, I viewed a video from "indian defence updates" at YouTube. They are saying LCA MK2 will enter into production in year 2029. Not sure if MK2 is how much relevant then.

BTW- first impression (looks wise) the new IAF chief does not look like he can do impressive job (looks like sleepy Joe). The current one is better [sorry - had to write this to reduce some frustration levels].

The Chinese are sitting at border, and IAF is buying discarded planes. The order for those mig-29s & su30s is never arriving.

Maybe, India has given up on china....and China can take whatever she wants.
You are genius if you can predict personality and future of a person just by your subjective observation regarding his face (or whatever).
We have new Hydra here.
PS: Its no junk if it can be used to keep our planes flying safely for longer time. People like you crib about forces not buying expensive stuff, but then cry a river about every penny increase in fuel prices.
 

randomradio

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(...)

per defense sources close to ****, much-waited talks for 36 additional Dassault Rafale is already underway with France for its F4 Standard variant that is much more advance than the present F3-R standard that could see deliveries starting from 2026 onwards.

(...)

That website is extremely unreliable. They either copy-paste or speculate, so it's no different from a defence forum. I'd wait for offical news or mainstream defence media to publish it.

And they say $25B for all that, they can't even get the correct number. It barely even exceeds $10-11B for all.
 

thinkingcap81

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Jun 2, 2019
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No American airplane will enter as frontline aircraft in the IAF.
I also think so. Trump and Biden, leaving aside external behavioral differences, have displayed similar characteristics. Biden's rapid exit from Afghanistan and the AUKUS pact leaving France knowing her place in the world has revealed a lot about him.

There are lots of things which we and US need to do as well to make QUAD stronger.
 

randomradio

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120+ Rafale will come in. The only question is what form the order takes and from where they will come in.

Even if MRFA fails, as long as GoI keeps ordering 36 Rafales in tranches, Dassault will just bring in more and more of its production to India. But the only problem is the amount of critical ToT we will get will be different from if GoI actually signs an agreement for ToT because Dassault's ToT will be driven more by profit considerations than strategic, particularly electronics. Unless Dassault and co are quite willing to part with most of the ToT required for the airframe and engine of their own accord at the very least, then it's not a good idea to get so many jets without a proper agreement for ToT because sanctions and supply disruptions can ground the lot. Which is why I don't think the IAF will scuttle MRFA.
 

suryakiran

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Dec 1, 2017
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Bangalore
Even if MRFA fails, as long as GoI keeps ordering 36 Rafales in tranches, Dassault will just bring in more and more of its production to India. But the only problem is the amount of critical ToT we will get will be different from if GoI actually signs an agreement for ToT because Dassault's ToT will be driven more by profit considerations than strategic, particularly electronics. Unless Dassault and co are quite willing to part with most of the ToT required for the airframe and engine of their own accord at the very least, then it's not a good idea to get so many jets without a proper agreement for ToT because sanctions and supply disruptions can ground the lot. Which is why I don't think the IAF will scuttle MRFA.

The basis you are assuming is of numbers based on earlier calculations of 42. There is a reason why the IAF is scrambling to ramp up numbers by getting in second hand jets. Not just numbers but also availability. I believe, there is/will be a clamour within the IAF to increase squadron strength to approx 52. @vstol Jockey would be interesting to hear your insight on this.

In this scenario, I don't think we will have too many options. The IAF does not want American fighters. Tejas will come in. Mk2 whenever it is ready.

AMCA and TEDBF all are still up in the air.

There are only 2 new fighter options. Tejas and Rafale. Rest all, till one sees them on ground....ball talks.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
12,071
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India
The basis you are assuming is of numbers based on earlier calculations of 42. There is a reason why the IAF is scrambling to ramp up numbers by getting in second hand jets. Not just numbers but also availability. I believe, there is/will be a clamour within the IAF to increase squadron strength to approx 52. @vstol Jockey would be interesting to hear your insight on this.

In this scenario, I don't think we will have too many options. The IAF does not want American fighters. Tejas will come in. Mk2 whenever it is ready.

AMCA and TEDBF all are still up in the air.

There are only 2 new fighter options. Tejas and Rafale. Rest all, till one sees them on ground....ball talks.

Going over 42 or 45 is not necessary anymore, though, because drones are going to come into the picture to complement fighter jets.