Rafale RB of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

Dawg-69

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Rafale odds in Finland have gone up exponentially.
I don't know if it's "exponentially", but I believe the odds have gone up. The opinion of the Swedes is that USA is focusing on the Pacific and so is UK, so Sweden is going to have to concentrate more on doing defense alone. Also, they do not consider themselves to be a real ally of USA in the same sense as France is/was: therefore it is not a given that USA would support Sweden in conflict.

To sum it up: USA chances go down, probably also UK since it is part of AUKUS, Sweden is a weak partner, therefore I believe Rafale to be the winner.

Of course I could be wrong. We shall certainly see. But I have been voting for Rafale for some time. Sometimes I change my opinion, but then I come back to voting Rafale. Of course I won't be deciding anything and of course I could be wrong, but Rafale is my vote right now.

This is the Finnish language article about Swedish opinions, use your favourite translator:

 

Picdelamirand-oil

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This is the Finnish language article about Swedish opinions, use your favourite translator:

Swedish Commodore urges Swedes to prepare for Russia's expanding territory: 'We need all the friends we can get'

A Swedish commodore warns of Russia's growing potential to expand its territory in the Baltic Sea region.

A golden opportunity may be opening up for Russia to start improving its position in the Baltic Sea and the Nordic region, warns Commodore Lars Wedin in a guest editorial published in Svenska Dagbladet.

Aukus turns the 'game board', Sweden must prepare
According to Wedin, Sweden should step up its own rearmament and prepare for the fact that the new Aukus defence cooperation agreement will weaken the British and US presence in Sweden's neighbourhood.

- The defence alliance between Australia, Britain and the US will turn the whole security policy game - including for Sweden. The alliance clearly shows how the US is prioritising developments in the South China Sea, Wedin writes.

- The UK is also apparently increasing its presence in the (Pacific) region. The result: the US and British presence in the Swedish part of the world will be substantially reduced.

"A golden opportunity may suddenly open up for Russia"
Wedin also highlights how the Aukus cooperation created a rift in relations between the Western NATO partners as well.

When Australia, Britain and the US announced the new cooperation, it also meant the collapse of the Franco-Australian submarine project.

France has felt betrayed by its allies. It invited home the ambassadors from Washington and Canberra.

- For Russia, this fracturing of relations with the West and the growing priority given to China in Britain and the United States means an increase in its own room for manoeuvre in Europe. Russia may suddenly have a golden opportunity to improve its strategic position in the North and the Baltic Sea.

"We need all the friends we can get"
For Sweden, Wedin says, the most important thing is to maintain transatlantic relations, but uncertainty has now increased.

- President Joe Biden shares the view of his predecessor Donald Trump that China is the number one priority - he just balances his words more. The US decision also shows that the country is prepared to thunder a close ally without warning. Sweden needs to understand this, Wedin says, pointing out that Sweden and the US are not allies.

In Wedin's view, Sweden should start to change its lukewarm attitude towards the EU's common defence.

- It is high time for Swedish security policy to reflect realism. We must stop opposing the EU's common defence. We need all the friends we can get. But in the end, we can only rely on ourselves - and perhaps our Nordic neighbours.

Commodore Wedin, 74, started his career in the Swedish Navy in the 1960s and 1970s, but moved to a specialist role in the early 1990s. These took him first to an advisory position with the CSCE, then to the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then to the head of the Swedish National Defence College's Strategy Department, and then to the EU Military Staff in Brussels.

Wedin is also a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Military Science.
 

vargr

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Sep 1, 2021
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The opinion of the Swedes is that USA is focusing on the Pacific and so is UK, so Sweden is going to have to concentrate more on doing defense alone.

Which is funny because it's the opinion of their next door neighbor (and yours), us Norwegians, that the US is an increasingly integral part of the defence of the North Atlantic, a view shared with the UK.

Sweden has always gone it alone, it's how they are. That they continue to see themselves as having to "go it alone" on their national defence strategy is nothing new.
 

randomradio

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Of course I could be wrong. We shall certainly see. But I have been voting for Rafale for some time. Sometimes I change my opinion, but then I come back to voting Rafale. Of course I won't be deciding anything and of course I could be wrong, but Rafale is my vote right now.

About this, the problem is the variant of the Rafale that can best compete with the F-35, if it can, exists only on demonstrators today. So, depending on how robust the Finnish evaluation is, if the Finns only consider operational capability at the time of the evaluations, then the F-35 is going to win very easily on the technical side. Generally such air forces, including the IAF, focus most on what's operationally deployable to make their technical decision. Some points are awarded for future capability, but the weightage is generally quite low, maybe 10% or even 5%.

But that's not the reason why the F-35 will win. The French offer that's worth $100 costs only $60 in the US. It's impossible for the French to compete with such a large difference in costs. If someone has a bet going somewhere, choose the F-35.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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India going to order more Rafales next year ...
It is interesting for Dassault's profits, but this kind of result is not strategic for a country.

What was strategic was that the Rafale assembly line remained open, and now that goal is assured: 40 Rafales will be needed to finish the current French order and replace the Greek Rafales, and then there will be two tranches of Rafales to reach 225 Rafales by 2032 and probably 12 Rafales to replace the Croatian Rafales. This makes 97 Rafales for France.

For the Rafale chain not to stop, it is necessary to have an order book of more than 3 years of production but by adjusting the production rate from 1 to 3 per month, 97 Rafales to be produced will allow the chain to be maintained for 3 to 10 years.

The only problem is that in the short term France did not need additional Rafale, but the end of the Qatari and Indian contracts and the new Egyptian contract for 30 Rafales plus the 12 new Rafales for the Greeks, make it easy to reach the moment when France can accept new deliveries.

So France's strategic objectives are already being met.
 
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randomradio

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It is interesting for Dassault's profits, but this kind of result is not strategic for a country.

What was strategic was that the Rafale assembly line remained open, and now that goal is assured: 40 Rafales will be needed to finish the current French order and replace the Greek Rafales, and then there will be two tranches of Rafales to reach 225 Rafales by 2032 and probably 12 Rafales to replace the Croatian Rafales. This makes 97 Rafales for France.

For the Rafale chain not to stop, it is necessary to have an order book of more than 3 years of production but by adjusting the production rate from 1 to 3 per month, 97 Rafales to be produced will allow the chain to be maintained for 3 to 10 years.

The only problem is that in the short term France did not need additional Rafale, but the end of the Qatari and Indian contracts and the new Egyptian contract for 30 Rafales plus the 12 new Rafales for the Greeks, make it easy to reach the moment when France can accept new deliveries.

So France's strategic objectives are already being met.

France also has the need to replace 55 M2000D from 2035. Plus the fact that once Russia finishes the production of Su-35 and S-30SM, all of their focus will switch to the Su-57. If Rafale production ends in 2032, then France won't have a fighter line while Russia's next gen production peaks. There will be the need to keep a fighter line going until FCAS starts serial deliveries. So that adds another 5 years, taking it all the way up to 2040. Any new export order by then should keep the line running for a few more years, 'cause more countries will become rich enough to afford fighter jets over the next 10-20 years.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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France also has the need to replace 55 M2000D from 2035. Plus the fact that once Russia finishes the production of Su-35 and S-30SM, all of their focus will switch to the Su-57. If Rafale production ends in 2032, then France won't have a fighter line while Russia's next gen production peaks. There will be the need to keep a fighter line going until FCAS starts serial deliveries. So that adds another 5 years, taking it all the way up to 2040. Any new export order by then should keep the line running for a few more years, 'cause more countries will become rich enough to afford fighter jets over the next 10-20 years.
I didn't said that Rafale production will end in 2032. What I know is that Mirage 2000 will end its French operational life in 2032 and at that time we will need 225 Rafale. But perhaps we will need more Rafale after that, perhaps in 2035 or when we will need to replace the old Rafale.
Also if FCAS is done by France alone, it will arrive sooner than if it's done in cooperation. ;)
 

randomradio

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I didn't said that Rafale production will end in 2032. What I know is that Mirage 2000 will end its French operational life in 2032 and at that time we will need 225 Rafale. But perhaps we will need more Rafale after that, perhaps in 2035 or when we will need to replace the old Rafale.
Also if FCAS is done by France alone, it will arrive sooner than if it's done in cooperation. ;)

Upgrade over the next few years and then retire in less than 10 years?

As for FCAS, I don't think France will work on it alone, and I don't have much hopes of it staying within schedule. Plus I won't be surprised if Dassault and AAE work independently on more advanced aircraft equipped with ramjet/scramjet while relying on cooperation for the FCAS to control costs.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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The 2000D upgrade.
The upgrade of these aircraft is not very expensive (less than that of the Indians for multi-role aircraft) and just has the ambition to allow us to still use these aircraft until they are retired. We don't intend to extend the airframe in the same way as you do, so we are coming to the end of their potential.

55 Mirage /3 = 18 Rafale only ... against 97 planned.

On a fleet of 225 Rafales, the change from 7500 h to 9000 h add us the equivalent of 45 Rafale
 
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randomradio

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The upgrade of these aircraft is not very expensive (less than that of the Indians for multi-role aircraft) and just has the ambition to allow us to still use these aircraft until they are retired. We don't intend to extend the airframe in the same way as you do, so we are coming to the end of their potential.

55 Mirage /3 = 18 Rafale only ... against 97 planned.

On a fleet of 225 Rafales, the change from 7500 h to 9000 h add us the equivalent of 45 Rafale

Okay, maybe it works out for France, but that kind of calculation doesn't work for India. You may be happy with maintaining minimum capability and saving money, but for us, we want to keep pushing up the costs for our adversary.

For us 55 M2000 = 55 Rafale. Now the enemy has to match us with either 165 M2000 or 55 Rafale of their own. So 315 M2000 = 315 Rafale.

Also 9000 additional hours is not an addition of capability, it only saves more money. And any possible replacement is at least 18 years away and FCAS will be ready by then. IIRC, PANG is to become available in 2037, so your oldest Ms will need FCAS as replacement. I am simply saying if France's Rafale orders end with 225 in 2032, and no export orders happen, then that's the end of the production line.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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Okay, maybe it works out for France, but that kind of calculation doesn't work for India. You may be happy with maintaining minimum capability and saving money, but for us, we want to keep pushing up the costs for our adversary.

For us 55 M2000 = 55 Rafale. Now the enemy has to match us with either 165 M2000 or 55 Rafale of their own. So 315 M2000 = 315 Rafale.

Also 9000 additional hours is not an addition of capability, it only saves more money. And any possible replacement is at least 18 years away and FCAS will be ready by then. IIRC, PANG is to become available in 2037, so your oldest Ms will need FCAS as replacement. I am simply saying if France's Rafale orders end with 225 in 2032, and no export orders happen, then that's the end of the production line.
We hope to get new order from export! Trappier recently said that there were good prospects for the Rafale in the export market. India, Indonesia, Again Egypt, UAE, Finland, In ten years some of these prospects should be declared.
 

STEPHEN COHEN

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We hope to get new order from export! Trappier recently said that there were good prospects for the Rafale in the export market. India, Indonesia, Again Egypt, UAE, Finland, In ten years some of these prospects should be declared.

Sir , the buzz on Twitter is that a Big order is coming from India

Now the question is How Big.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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Also 9000 additional hours is not an addition of capability, it only saves more money. And any possible replacement is at least 18 years away and FCAS will be ready by then.
9,000 hours means that the Rafales can be used for 300 hours a year instead of 250 hours for 30 years, so this could be an increase in capacity, but you are right, it could also be a saving if the Rafales are used for 250 hours a year for 36 years instead of 30 years. Technically, the Rafale is capable of both since Dassault claims that it can be used up to 1000 hours per year on a regular basis.

The first Rafales were operational in 2004 for the navy and in 2006 for the air force, so they will have 30 years of operational life in 2034 and 2036, i.e. in 13 and 15 years for their replacement. With the export and production for France we should be able to reach these dates easily.
 

Hydra

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India will not add many Rafales to our assembly line, because they will be produced in India, so for the French strategic aspects it will count little, fortunately we don't need them anymore. :)
Means, its confirmed now that we are gonna produce it in Numbers? How many & which version?