Rafale RB of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

Abingdonboy

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Welcome back.

Local assembly is possible for 36 because the Rafale uses the same line as the Falcon, which they are setting up in India. Airbus offered the same as offsets to Switzerland. Saab's doing the same in Brazil. With the Falcon line, it's actually easier for Dassault to do the same.

What's not possible is the production of the fuselage, landing gear, most avionics and engine with just 36. With an order for 90, Dassault can move 100% of the airframe and engine production to India, or 70% of the aircraft in terms of cost.
Sure they can use the workforce and maybe some tooling at DRAL for assembling the SKDs but for what gain?

this kind of screwdriver assembly is meaningless in the long term and adds nothing but cost.

They’ll come much faster fully operational from the OEM’s main line, why complicate it and add more variables for no value addition?

what would be FAR more valuable is if DRAL can be upscaled to undertake MRO of the Rafales in the region. Let DRAL become something in its own right not just an assembly line
Happy to see you again, the only thing missing is the return of PARIKRAMA/Aashish for my joy to be complete
Good to see you still kicking around sir, fighting the good fight.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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Sure they can use the workforce and maybe some tooling at DRAL for assembling the SKDs but for what gain?

this kind of screwdriver assembly is meaningless in the long term and adds nothing but cost.

They’ll come much faster fully operational from the OEM’s main line, why complicate it and add more variables for no value addition?

what would be FAR more valuable is if DRAL can be upscaled to undertake MRO of the Rafales in the region. Let DRAL become something in its own right not just an assembly line

It's not kits assembly, they are referring to full assembly. Plus they say it's cheaper to do it in India. In fact, what can be done cheaper in India will be moved to India, and what cannot stays in France. Since Dassault runs the show, they can pick and choose what they can do here. Plus it's a great PR benefit for additional orders if the tender doesn't work out. And of course there's value addition. Assembly comprises an year's worth of work and contributes to offsets. It can even allow the assembly of export jets, followed by future MRO work for the IAF and the export customers.

Anyway, I believe the chances for a second order have dwindled a lot since the IAF's financial priorities have changed with the limited budget. The LCA Mk1A, followed by the Mig-29+MKI order, combined they equal the Rafale deal in terms of costs already. And with an order for the LCA Mk2 (at least 40 initially), the MKI MLU and a whole host of force multipliers, transports and helicopters planned, I don't think there's gonna be much money left for a second Rafale deal until the tender delivers.
 
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Abingdonboy

Team StratFront
Dec 1, 2017
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387
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It's not kits assembly, they are referring to full assembly. Plus they say it's cheaper to do it in India. In fact, what can be done cheaper in India will be moved to India, and what cannot stays in France. Since Dassault runs the show, they can pick and choose what they can do here. Plus it's a great PR benefit for additional orders if the tender doesn't work out. And of course there's value addition. Assembly comprises an year's worth of work and contributes to offsets. It can even allow the assembly of export jets, followed by future MRO work for the IAF and the export customers.

Anyway, I believe the chances for a second order have dwindled a lot since the IAF's financial priorities have changed with the limited budget. The LCA Mk1A, followed by the Mig-29+MKI order, combined they equal the Rafale deal in terms of costs already. And with an order for the LCA Mk2 (at least 40 initially), the MKI MLU and a whole host of force multipliers, transports and helicopters planned, I don't think there's gonna be much money left for a second Rafale deal until the tender delivers.
They can’t move production to India for such limited orders. Eventually it might be more cost effective with a large production run ( i believe Eric Tapier said 90 units was the minimum) but not for 36.

I don’t see the second batch being ordered until the first lot are fully delivered but it will certainly happen given the second batch was priced into the first from the outset.

like I said, it’ll be 2022-3 when they start talking seriously about the second tranche.
 

Lolwa

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Feb 6, 2020
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They can’t move production to India for such limited orders. Eventually it might be more cost effective with a large production run ( i believe Eric Tapier said 90 units was the minimum) but not for 36.

I don’t see the second batch being ordered until the first lot are fully delivered but it will certainly happen given the second batch was priced into the first from the outset.

like I said, it’ll be 2022-3 when they start talking seriously about the second tranche.
We need to give 114 order to the French if we want to produce Rafale in India. Otherwise anothr 36. And I hope they take 5 billion dollar deal with the French since panther is most likely the winner for nuh. French have given us a good deal..
 
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randomradio

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They can’t move production to India for such limited orders. Eventually it might be more cost effective with a large production run ( i believe Eric Tapier said 90 units was the minimum) but not for 36.

We are talking about assembly, not production. There will be no metal cutting in India. It's purely final assembly. 36 is more than enough for this.

I don’t see the second batch being ordered until the first lot are fully delivered but it will certainly happen given the second batch was priced into the first from the outset.

It wasn't, not the way you are assuming. Any new order will be a whole new contract. The IGA takes care of the pricing, but only for the version ordered. It doesn't matter how many original tranches you order, a new version will require new pricing, so new negotiations from scratch. It's unlikely for a potential second tranche to be the original F3R again because of the time lost. The possibility of a repeat order died when it didn't happen in 2019-20.

The point of the second order was to make it happen before MRFA began.

like I said, it’ll be 2022-3 when they start talking seriously about the second tranche.

I beg to differ. With elections coming up by then, and a slew of other deals in the way, I don't expect the second tranche to start anytime before elections.

Anyway, as of today, the IAF has not shown interest in the second tranche, preferring the MRFA instead.
SP’s: What all is being done to control the depleting number of fighter squadrons which are supposed to be 42 in number?

We are expecting the delivery of 24 remaining LCA aircraft to be completed in the next two to three years, after which the 83 LCA MK1A will start joining the IAF fleet. The two Rafale squadrons will be fully equipped in the meanwhile. We could look at further LCA enhancements and procurement of the 114 MRFA through the Make in India to further augment the fighter strength. AMCA programme is being vigorously pursued with the aircraft likely to be inducted from 2032 onwards or earlier based on D&D completion. To augment the existing fleet of Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 aircraft, AoN for 33 aircraft has been accorded and these will start flying with us in the next couple of years.

So that's their official stance. You can say that the 33 Russian jets removed the option for 36 more Rafales.

"The 83 LCA Tejas would be replacing the four squadrons of the MiG-21 fighter jets which are set to be phased out in near future. The focus would now be on the 114 fighter jets project," government sources told ANI.

So, once MRFA begins, I don't think the govt will allow more orders of the Rafale due to conflict of interests. So any potential deal will have to be done with before the AoN is accorded, which is unlikely. However this opens up the possibility of ordering a different jet that's not part of the MRFA instead, although I doubt even that's going to happen.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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We are talking about assembly, not production. There will be no metal cutting in India. It's purely final assembly. 36 is more than enough for this.



It wasn't, not the way you are assuming. Any new order will be a whole new contract. The IGA takes care of the pricing, but only for the version ordered. It doesn't matter how many original tranches you order, a new version will require new pricing, so new negotiations from scratch. It's unlikely for a potential second tranche to be the original F3R again because of the time lost. The possibility of a repeat order died when it didn't happen in 2019-20.

The point of the second order was to make it happen before MRFA began.



I beg to differ. With elections coming up by then, and a slew of other deals in the way, I don't expect the second tranche to start anytime before elections.

Anyway, as of today, the IAF has not shown interest in the second tranche, preferring the MRFA instead.
SP’s: What all is being done to control the depleting number of fighter squadrons which are supposed to be 42 in number?

We are expecting the delivery of 24 remaining LCA aircraft to be completed in the next two to three years, after which the 83 LCA MK1A will start joining the IAF fleet. The two Rafale squadrons will be fully equipped in the meanwhile. We could look at further LCA enhancements and procurement of the 114 MRFA through the Make in India to further augment the fighter strength. AMCA programme is being vigorously pursued with the aircraft likely to be inducted from 2032 onwards or earlier based on D&D completion. To augment the existing fleet of Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 aircraft, AoN for 33 aircraft has been accorded and these will start flying with us in the next couple of years.

So that's their official stance. You can say that the 33 Russian jets removed the option for 36 more Rafales.

"The 83 LCA Tejas would be replacing the four squadrons of the MiG-21 fighter jets which are set to be phased out in near future. The focus would now be on the 114 fighter jets project," government sources told ANI.

So, once MRFA begins, I don't think the govt will allow more orders of the Rafale due to conflict of interests. So any potential deal will have to be done with before the AoN is accorded, which is unlikely. However this opens up the possibility of ordering a different jet that's not part of the MRFA instead, although I doubt even that's going to happen.

This Interview was BEFORE the Second Wave of Covid which further dented
Govt Finances for the Second Successive year

Fiscal Deficit for FY 2020 was 9.5 percent

This year it will be nearly 12 percent
 

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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Relevant Excerpts related to Expenditure Control in Current FY

____________________________________________________

On June 30, the finance ministry asked 81 ministries/departments or organisations to scale down their expenditure plans for the September quarter by at least 5 percentage points (pps) from the business-as-usual level of 25% of the full-year spending, in view of stress on the government’s finances.


Also, spending by most departments is learnt to have remained within 20% of the full-year budget estimate in the first quarter, against the available limit of 25%. The moves helped generate savings for the Centre, of up to Rs 1.15 lakh crore in the first half of the current fiscal as per an FE estimate.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,888
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India
@randomradio


Relevant Excerpts related to Expenditure Control in Current FY

____________________________________________________

On June 30, the finance ministry asked 81 ministries/departments or organisations to scale down their expenditure plans for the September quarter by at least 5 percentage points (pps) from the business-as-usual level of 25% of the full-year spending, in view of stress on the government’s finances.


Also, spending by most departments is learnt to have remained within 20% of the full-year budget estimate in the first quarter, against the available limit of 25%. The moves helped generate savings for the Centre, of up to Rs 1.15 lakh crore in the first half of the current fiscal as per an FE estimate.

They will just reduce it at the revenue front rather than the capital budget. But I don't think the defence budget will be reduced due to the Chinese threat.
 
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Abingdonboy

Team StratFront
Dec 1, 2017
154
387
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We are talking about assembly, not production. There will be no metal cutting in India. It's purely final assembly. 36 is more than enough for this.



It wasn't, not the way you are assuming. Any new order will be a whole new contract. The IGA takes care of the pricing, but only for the version ordered. It doesn't matter how many original tranches you order, a new version will require new pricing, so new negotiations from scratch. It's unlikely for a potential second tranche to be the original F3R again because of the time lost. The possibility of a repeat order died when it didn't happen in 2019-20.

The point of the second order was to make it happen before MRFA began.



I beg to differ. With elections coming up by then, and a slew of other deals in the way, I don't expect the second tranche to start anytime before elections.

Anyway, as of today, the IAF has not shown interest in the second tranche, preferring the MRFA instead.
SP’s: What all is being done to control the depleting number of fighter squadrons which are supposed to be 42 in number?

We are expecting the delivery of 24 remaining LCA aircraft to be completed in the next two to three years, after which the 83 LCA MK1A will start joining the IAF fleet. The two Rafale squadrons will be fully equipped in the meanwhile. We could look at further LCA enhancements and procurement of the 114 MRFA through the Make in India to further augment the fighter strength. AMCA programme is being vigorously pursued with the aircraft likely to be inducted from 2032 onwards or earlier based on D&D completion. To augment the existing fleet of Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 aircraft, AoN for 33 aircraft has been accorded and these will start flying with us in the next couple of years.

So that's their official stance. You can say that the 33 Russian jets removed the option for 36 more Rafales.

"The 83 LCA Tejas would be replacing the four squadrons of the MiG-21 fighter jets which are set to be phased out in near future. The focus would now be on the 114 fighter jets project," government sources told ANI.

So, once MRFA begins, I don't think the govt will allow more orders of the Rafale due to conflict of interests. So any potential deal will have to be done with before the AoN is accorded, which is unlikely. However this opens up the possibility of ordering a different jet that's not part of the MRFA instead, although I doubt even that's going to happen.
We will see buddy but I’m more than confident that the Seine tranche will be ordered within the next 24 months

the first deal’s high fixed costs were largely as they had capacity built in for the second tranche of 36. There’s a reason the 2 Rafale bases can support 2 squadrons each

there’s already open source information saying the next 36 will come at a all up cost 30-40% cheaper than the original deal.

MRFA just isn’t happening and we all know it, it’ll be canned at some point

and the comment about prejudicing the selection process is moot if the IAF is happy to spec out MIG29UPGs (basically MIG35s) under an ‘emergency basis’ route. They can do the same for the next batch of Rafales when the time comes.

as I say, let the final deliveries of the Rafale take place and the IAF fall in love with the bird-which they absolutely will. Let TACDE get their hands on it and the DACT exs start, when the Rafale is embarrassing the MKI see the clamour that will be created internally. They’ll happily take 36 more rather than the futile MRFA.

What other fighter type has the IAF ever stopped short of 4 Squadrons as minimum? They can’t even support a pilot pipeline with such few in the field and they certainly are not happy to pay $50m a plane for ISE.
 

Milspec

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Let TACDE get their hands on it and the DACT exs start, when the Rafale is embarrassing the MKI see the clamour that will be created internally. They’ll happily take 36 more rather than the futile MRFA.


1626895457744.png
 
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randomradio

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We will see buddy but I’m more than confident that the Seine tranche will be ordered within the next 24 months

the first deal’s high fixed costs were largely as they had capacity built in for the second tranche of 36. There’s a reason the 2 Rafale bases can support 2 squadrons each

there’s already open source information saying the next 36 will come at a all up cost 30-40% cheaper than the original deal.

MRFA just isn’t happening and we all know it, it’ll be canned at some point

and the comment about prejudicing the selection process is moot if the IAF is happy to spec out MIG29UPGs (basically MIG35s) under an ‘emergency basis’ route. They can do the same for the next batch of Rafales when the time comes.

as I say, let the final deliveries of the Rafale take place and the IAF fall in love with the bird-which they absolutely will. Let TACDE get their hands on it and the DACT exs start, when the Rafale is embarrassing the MKI see the clamour that will be created internally. They’ll happily take 36 more rather than the futile MRFA.

What other fighter type has the IAF ever stopped short of 4 Squadrons as minimum? They can’t even support a pilot pipeline with such few in the field and they certainly are not happy to pay $50m a plane for ISE.

For it to be ordered within the next 2 years, the process has to start early next year. The F4.2 is unlikely to be ready for operational flight testing until 2024. Which means the order won't be for the F4.2, but for the F3R/4.1. The Rafales will receive Mig-29UPG type upgrades only around 2045-50. The configuration they come in now will be the final one until MLU.

The cost is subjective to the requirement. The second order is cheaper only for an exact copy of the previous order, without ISE and basing. You can bet a new ISE configuration and a 3rd base can mess up costs. This is bound to happen since enough time has passed.

Anyway, the IAF doesn't want 2 more squadrons, they want 8-10 more squadrons. They are not gonna get to that number by ordering 2 squadrons every half a decade. Hence the need for MRFA.

You can also bet that the HAL and DRDO will attempt to hijack the tranche-based system in the 2030s with the TEDBF and AMCA Mk1. "Why import old gen Rafale when we have 'Super Rafale' and 'Next Gen' Rafale? Corruption! Corruption!" I won't be surprised if instead of 9-12 squadrons, they will just end up with 4, or 6 if they are lucky.

MRFA is crucial for the SPM process so it won't get canned. It's very important for the country to have a private competitor to the HAL. The OEM-private partnership will take care of the hurdles faced during the previous tender, so it won't be a repeat of MMRCA either. Plus the fact that it will end up being a dog and pony show for the Rafale anyway.

Anyway I'm sure the IAF would love to have both the second tranche of F3R as well as MRFA, but if asked to choose between the two, they are going to choose MRFA instead. The IAF doesn't like to fly on a wing and a prayer.
 
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Dawg-69

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Here is the same piece of news, I hope it's not been linked here before:


I would like to see a Finland-made, all-Finnish Rafale built under licence in Finland. This option would give Finland maximum autonomy and independence.

The game is not, repeat NOT over. Finnish procurement decisions have often been total surprises. I still think the winner could be any one of the five.

The Eurofighter Typhoon is probably the most unlikely candidate because Finns are very strict with operating costs, and it is expensive to start with. But... IF BAE really wants the deal, and if the Brits want it, they can make it sweeter for Finland. You never know.

This is my view: Rafale is the choice, IF the Finns desire maximum autonomy. Dassault has promised things like licence production and "unlimited" tech transfer. Maybe this is what Finland wants?

It is a very very interesting game I must say. There are all sorts of things which I wonder about. Finland is different from Switzerland, because we are close to some of the most strategic locations in Russia. There could be some very lucrative electronic intelligence to be found, and maybe the Brits want it, maybe the Frenchies want it, surely the Muricans want it... that is perhaps one reason why the Growlers are in the game.

EDIT: my link is not working, seems like forum software is doing something to it? Anyhow it was the same news about Egyptian Rafales.
 

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
14,193
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Here is the same piece of news, I hope it's not been linked here before:


I would like to see a Finland-made, all-Finnish Rafale built under licence in Finland. This option would give Finland maximum autonomy and independence.

The game is not, repeat NOT over. Finnish procurement decisions have often been total surprises. I still think the winner could be any one of the five.

The Eurofighter Typhoon is probably the most unlikely candidate because Finns are very strict with operating costs, and it is expensive to start with. But... IF BAE really wants the deal, and if the Brits want it, they can make it sweeter for Finland. You never know.

This is my view: Rafale is the choice, IF the Finns desire maximum autonomy. Dassault has promised things like licence production and "unlimited" tech transfer. Maybe this is what Finland wants?

It is a very very interesting game I must say. There are all sorts of things which I wonder about. Finland is different from Switzerland, because we are close to some of the most strategic locations in Russia. There could be some very lucrative electronic intelligence to be found, and maybe the Brits want it, maybe the Frenchies want it, surely the Muricans want it... that is perhaps one reason why the Growlers are in the game.

EDIT: my link is not working, seems like forum software is doing something to it? Anyhow it was the same news about Egyptian Rafales.
Since you're a newbie here , let me inform you that I D R W is @Ashwin fav site . All articles get automatically delinked here .
 
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Dawg-69

Member
Feb 23, 2021
41
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Since you're a newbie here , let me inform you that I D R W is @Ashwin fav site . All articles get automatically delinked here .
OK, no problem :)

Back to the Rafale - I am not sure if I mentioned it here, but Finland included Israel in HX. There was an inquiry sent to Israel at an early stage, and we don't really know what it was about. Well, obviously it was about weapons, but no details are available.

So that is an interesting idea: a Rafale with some Israeli stuff integrated. Finland has just chosen GABRIEL missile from Israel for the Navy and coastal defense. This is an example of Finland buying stuff from countries that are quite different from the usual partners, and it is also an example of a procurement that was a complete surprise. Of course everyone would have thought that Finland would pick either RBS-15 (Swedish, also previously used by Finnish Navy) or JSM (Norwegian, also a neighbouring country like Sweden). So now, earlier RBS-15's are being replaced on some ships by Gabriel missiles, and four new ships will be given Gabriels.

A Rafale with Israeli weapons could perhaps be cheaper. MICA is very good and very interesting, but expensive. Same goes for AASM Hammer. Integration of a cheaper IR missile and SPICE could result in a better option for cost-sensitive Finns.

I don't know, these are just my ideas! I have no idea if they are grounded in reality at all. Definitely the Meteor has to be included if a Eurocanard is bought, that is obvious.

This is the biggest enemy of the F-35 in Finland: operating costs. There will be no mercy, and I can't see how it could be possible to run 64 F-35's at the same price as 62 Hornets. Regarding Rafale, the total number would probably be less than 64. But LM has fixed their offer at 64 planes, and I don't see how it could work out in real life.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,888
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India
Good I hope Egypt and India buy 100 Rafales.

Better than Russian jets by a lot :)

Not necessarily. Russian jets have bigger sensors and more range and payload. The bigger size of their jets allows for quicker and cheaper upgrades as well.

Their cheap currency makes imports cheaper. Like the upfront cost of the Su-57 ($36M) is less than the LCA Mk1A ($42M). We can buy 3 Su-57s for the price of 1 Rafale. Even if the Russians sell the jet at a higher margin, we will still be able to buy 2 jets for each Rafale. For small orders, the Russian prices are unbeatable.