Rafale RB of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

thinkingcap81

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Jun 2, 2019
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The points expressed in my post are much more logical as opposed to the assessment of Chinese stealth fighters about which none of us know anything apart from what's in the public domain.

Hence , some ppl take it to mean anything goes. One can even claim by 2030 that the 187 KN x 2 engines power generated are required for DEW . Where's the harm in stating that?


In the absence of any information it helps to see how nations directly affected by these developments are responding . Leave aside India , Do you see any such reports about the abilities of the J-20 emanating from the US or SoKo or Japan or even Taiwan . What do these tell you ?

There are many ways of gauging the capabilities & efficacy of certain platforms or armaments. What I've submitted is just one of the ways in the absence of any direct information about the subject or intelligence leaks or actual performance !!
There are reports even from the US where they present alarmist predictions about Chinese military tech, but of course some dismiss it as a means by the military to get more funds. Overall the world has woken up to the fact that sooner rather than later Chinese tech will be damn good in most areas.

If PAF gets the J-10C with WS-10 series engines then we'll know that in fighter jet engine technology the Chinese have arrived. Even otherwise i think that it's just a matter of time before PAF gets the J-10 series, else they don't have any answer to counter the Rafale.

@Falcon in his Twitter account posted that IA needs the Arjun MK1A to counter the VT4 that PA is getting. So this means that Chinese export grade tanks are pretty good now, at least for India.

I think that one of the reasons that the US was in a hurry to get out of Afganistan is that they need to counter the soon-to-come Chinese agression against Taiwan. Can we even fathom the geopolitical repercussions of a Chinese subjugation of Taiwan without much US/NATO opposition just like the Russian annexation of Crimea?

We had a brief window when the US wasn't giving a lot to Pak militarily and the Chinese had nothing worthy to offer to Pak. That window is rapidly closing and we are trying to get our MIL in shape in bits and pieces at best. If our economy continues to falter for the next 5 years then the 36 Rafale won't be enough for us to keep a robust two-front posture.
 
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_Anonymous_

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There are reports even from the US where they present alarmist predictions about Chinese military tech, but of course some dismiss it as a means by the military to get more funds. Overall the world has woken up to the fact that sooner rather than later Chinese tech will be damn good in most areas.
Good points . I shall strive to present my view & be as brief as I can without sacrificing clarity & the sweep of subjects that you've covered at the altar of brevity .


The Chinese are getting better & will continue to do so in the future . I don't think anybody's disputing that. Let me ask you something - why do the Chinese produce everything in bulk like these J-20's . Stealth aircraft aren't economic to either manufacture or maintain . What does that tell you ? Hint - Quantity is a Quality of it's own . What the intrinsic quality of that particular platform is a thought I'd leave to your better judgement .


If PAF gets the J-10C with WS-10 series engines then we'll know that in fighter jet engine technology the Chinese have arrived. Even otherwise i think that it's just a matter of time before PAF gets the J-10 series, else they don't have any answer to counter the Rafale.
They well may get it & that's something our security managers would have factored in much before a formal announcement towards it's acquisition would be made .

Our calculations for the recent past has been if we acquire some sort of deterrence against China that'd come in handy to us in prevailing over Pakistan.

This doctrine was being executed by us in the form of procurements of late . What last summer's incidents across the LAC did was hit home the import & urgency of such procurements .
@Falcon in his Twitter account posted that IA needs the Arjun MK1A to counter the VT4 that PA is getting. So this means that Chinese export grade tanks are pretty good now, at least for India.
2 different aspects to be considered here - One of which is quality of Pakistan's procurements & by extension the quality of Chinese products , the other being our response which in the very least should not only appear to commensurate to the threat perception but also be so in reality. While Pakistan has to only cater to us we've to cater to both China & Pakistan .

If @Falcon has specifically mentioned the Arjun & not the T series of tanks or the ones on the drawing board like FRCV , it's more likely he's looking to promote additional procurements of various iterations of the Arjuns which as of has seen limited inductions given the terrain limitations of operations of that tank . I would go so far as to say he's attempting to kill 2 birds with 1 Stone with his suggestions .

I think that one of the reasons that the US was in a hurry to get out of Afganistan is that they need to counter the soon-to-come Chinese agression against Taiwan. Can we even fathom the geopolitical repercussions of a Chinese subjugation of Taiwan without much US/NATO opposition just like the Russian annexation of Crimea?
The US has a habit of exiting wars it cannot win . They entered into Afghanistan for the same reasons they went to Iraq. To overthrow a regime & usher in democracy. Except in case the of the latter they used expediency as an excuse to implement an insidious agenda , got bogged down & retreated at the first opportunity .

In Afghanistan once they got Bin Laden & with the Iraq experience they didn't know what to do . Confronting Pakistan by enlarging the scope of operations would have ended up exacting much more from the US in terms of resources - men material & money than they were willing to commit .

They chose the least risky operation. Consolidate their hold on Afghanistan , keep Pakistan under pressure & stabilize the situation as far as possible in Afghanistan. Over a period of time it became clear that there were severe limitations to their strategy & with the passage of time their commitment & interest levels flagged. The results are before you . Afghanistan is exactly where it was when the Soviets left .

Regarding Taiwan, I personally don't think the US is going to confront China militarily if China decides to invade Taiwan. But we also know China won't attempt something like that without being absolutely sure it can execute such a strategy with the least risk .

It's difficult to comment on how the situation would unfold but I've a gut feeling that whatever is to be done about Taiwan by China will be done before this decade is out . Xi wants to leave a legacy & he's a man in a hurry . That could well be his & thru him - China's fatal blunder , if he's not already made it .

The analogy to Russian occupation of Ukraine doesn't hold as that region was always a Russian possesion which in turn is reflected by the demographics there . It was administered by Ukraine only during the USSR era when it was made a part of Ukraine - an arrangement which continued since the dissolution of the USSR .
We had a brief window when the US wasn't giving a lot to Pak militarily and the Chinese had nothing worthy to offer to Pak. That window is rapidly closing and we are trying to get our MIL in shape in bits and pieces at best. If our economy continues to falter for the next 5 years then the 36 Rafale won't be enough for us to keep a robust two-front posture.
We will continue to implement our modernization & enhancement of our war fighting machine in bits & pieces irrespective of the shape our economy is in .

Even if we , for the sake of argument , continue recording 10-12% growth annually for say 5 yrs from 2024-29 you're not going to see a corresponding rise in our defence expenditure as befits a nation of our size confronting 2 N powers from which it faces an existential threat .

Why ? Hint : that's where our N deterrence comes into play especially when facing a 2 front war . While Pakistan keeps yakking about nuking India at every opportunity ( a practice if you notice they've given up ever since Balakote ) , India will effect a change in it's NW - NFU policy only when it sees the threat over the horizon & not before.

If you notice our seniormost serving & retired bureaucrats & ministers make such ambiguous pronouncements from time to time . The parties at whom it's directed get the message .

Is Pakistan & China aware of this ? Yes , they are . What they've been probing since the past 2 decades ( much beyond that in case of Pakistan ) is the will . Beginning 2014 they've had their doubts which since Balakote & last summer has been confirmed . Prior to that , for reasons I don't want to get into , they could take their liberties with India. That margin ( of taking liberties ) has since shrunk considerably.
 
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Innominate

Well-Known member
Jun 23, 2021
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DOH!
-French judge tasked with investigating Rafale fighter jet sale to India [sacre bleu]
02 Jul 2021 NewsWires

"A French judge has been tasked with investigating a controversial 2016 multi-billion-dollar sale of Rafale fighter jets to India on “corruption” suspicions, the national financial prosecutors’ office (PNF) said Friday.

The 7.8-billion-euro ($9.3-billion) deal for 36 planes between the Indian government and French aircraft manufacturer Dassault has long been mired in corruption allegations...."

Not surprised but what is surprising is the many in here that complained about the Swiss selecting the F-35 due to possible corruption of some kind has totally ignored this story.

It wouldn't be Dassault without corruption allegations especially involving Indian government . :ROFLMAO:

Lets discuss this more thoroughly shall we? Who wants to go first?
 

zinswinsin

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Dec 4, 2017
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The issue isn't the build speed. This was always expected since they have been doing this for over a decade now.

The issue is the quality, and it appears their quality has been severely underestimated. And this isn't an issue for India alone, it's a major issue for even America, since the Chinese spending is not being matched within the same time period.

People question Chinese electronics capability while not realising that the electronics industry is being led by civilians, not by the military. And civilians are making generational changes every few years. Plus the fact that govts and militaries can ignore IPR when it comes to national security. So the Chinese hardware is definitely top notch and comparable with anything being made in the West or Japan.

Traditionally, the West had electronics superiority over the SU. But the SU made up for the difference by using higher grade technologies. So when the US was making excellent analog electronics for tanks in the 60s, the Soviets simply introduced digital electronics. Similarly, while the Americans made excellent mechanical scan radars in the 80s, the SU introduced PESAs. Now we may see a situation where your excellent GaAs tech is superceded by the characteristically superior GaN tech by the Chinese. It doesn't matter if your GaAs tech is better than their GaAs tech if they aren't even using it.

Furthermore, while some militaries need to control their budget, the Chinese have no issues. The Chinese are bringing in new hardware every 5 years. They produce 250 jets in a 5-year period, something that's taken 25+ years for the French. So a hardware refresh for the Chinese is very rapid from our perspective because of their superior finances.

And finally, their geographical advantage over America in the Pacific. So, even if the J-20 is slightly inferior to the upcoming F-22 MLU, the F-22 doesn't have the numbers or endurance to match the Chinese jets over Taiwan. This gives them parity, so it's likely that the US will be fighting in contested airspace for the very first time. For example, the F-22 from Okinawa cannot hit the J-20 air base in Quzhou, it's too far away. But the J-20 can hit Okinawa, no problem.

And the next 5 years is when we are expected to go to war over both Ladakh and Taiwan. For both US and India, our respective next gen technologies are expected only between 2028-38, with the Rafale F4.2/AMCA and NGAD.

So this is something you guys should be worried about as well.

Oh I meant all of us, not just India. The J-20 maybe a little worse or better(unlikely) than the F-22 or F-35, but it's still much better than the F-15, F-16, Rafale, Typhoon lot the west have.

I agree with your general opinion that Chinese tech is advancing rapidly. America and the West are inferior or equal to China in many technology aspects and will be much worse later on.

I don't think military technology will be decisive though. AI, digital, automatization, etc will be much more important. Even stuff like oil is rapidly losing it's value strategically.


Thing is folks there's no way China is gonna launch an attack on India realistically. Why would they need to? They can win the world through economics/technology.

Taiwan on the other hand is painted in ideological and nationalistic reasons. That is the human wild card aspect no one can predict.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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India
The Chinese tech advancements means that even if they give some stuff to Pak, it will upset our calculations even if that Pak stuff is inferior to the Rafale. Other than the Quad we don't have much of an option for the next decade or so. War is also a political game; the military is one aspect of war.

With America most of the cold war was spent this way anyway. So it doesn't change things as much.

There are reports even from the US where they present alarmist predictions about Chinese military tech, but of course some dismiss it as a means by the military to get more funds. Overall the world has woken up to the fact that sooner rather than later Chinese tech will be damn good in most areas.

The AF-NGAD is in direct response to the rise in Chinese capabilities.

Hinote said the F-22 will begin to phase out in about 2030—the exact timeline will be situation-dependent—and the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter will be needed soon to defeat a Chinese stealth aircraft and missile threat that is “closer than we think.”

The USAF's Air Superiority 2030 report says the F-22 and F-35 cannot challenge the J-20. This is becoming obvious. It's pretty much the same reason why they did not go for a modernised F-22 either. The Americans don't like parity, but with the J-20, they are actually inferior.

The Air Force has a window of opportunity to change and it must do so quickly, because “our advantage as a nation, as an Air Force, as a joint team, is eroding,” Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said Aug. 29, noting the service this week will release a paper called, “Accelerate Change or Lose.”

Would recommend reading this:

If the US is now talking about having to fight in contested air space, then what are we? The writing was on the wall a long time ago. From our perspective, it's definitely really bad.

When this came out in 2020, people assumed there's still some time left. But now it seems Gen Brown was speaking of just a few years down the line.

Fielding the NGAD is urgent, Hinote added. While he would not say when the threat will overmatch USAF’s current capabilities, “the time is absolutely coming where the combination of something like a [Chinese] J-20 with an advanced … missile is a threat to air superiority for the United States. … It’s something we’ve got to address.”

If PAF gets the J-10C with WS-10 series engines then we'll know that in fighter jet engine technology the Chinese have arrived. Even otherwise i think that it's just a matter of time before PAF gets the J-10 series, else they don't have any answer to counter the Rafale.

There's the upcoming J-31/35. They plan to market it outside China under the FC-31 moniker. The J-10's not enough to counter the Rafales.

@Falcon in his Twitter account posted that IA needs the Arjun MK1A to counter the VT4 that PA is getting. So this means that Chinese export grade tanks are pretty good now, at least for India.

We can't afford the Arjuns. But tanks aren't as big a problem though, especially against Pakistan, since we can ensure air superiority against them.

I think that one of the reasons that the US was in a hurry to get out of Afganistan is that they need to counter the soon-to-come Chinese agression against Taiwan. Can we even fathom the geopolitical repercussions of a Chinese subjugation of Taiwan without much US/NATO opposition just like the Russian annexation of Crimea?

Taiwan is the last ideological bulwark against the Chinese communist ideology that can threaten its existence. If Taiwan goes into Chinese hands, then it basically means an entire race of people who are artificially recognised as Han Chinese will come under one leadership. Post which any other ideology, be it religion or govt, will be a foreign, non-Chinese concept and can be easily separated from the Chinese ethos over the long term.

We need Taiwan to survive on its own because the Chinese in the mainland must eventually see for themselves that the quality of life of a Taiwanese, including the freedom they enjoy, is better than the one in China no matter how rich the mainland gets.

I don't know about NATO, but it seems the US and Japan see the importance of Taiwan and will support its cause. But the main question is if Taiwan is willing to put up a fight. I suppose we will get the answer on the day they are supposed to fight.
 

LX1111

Member
May 12, 2021
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With America most of the cold war was spent this way anyway. So it doesn't change things as much.



The AF-NGAD is in direct response to the rise in Chinese capabilities.

Hinote said the F-22 will begin to phase out in about 2030—the exact timeline will be situation-dependent—and the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter will be needed soon to defeat a Chinese stealth aircraft and missile threat that is “closer than we think.”

The USAF's Air Superiority 2030 report says the F-22 and F-35 cannot challenge the J-20. This is becoming obvious. It's pretty much the same reason why they did not go for a modernised F-22 either. The Americans don't like parity, but with the J-20, they are actually inferior.

The Air Force has a window of opportunity to change and it must do so quickly, because “our advantage as a nation, as an Air Force, as a joint team, is eroding,” Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. said Aug. 29, noting the service this week will release a paper called, “Accelerate Change or Lose.”

Would recommend reading this:

If the US is now talking about having to fight in contested air space, then what are we? The writing was on the wall a long time ago. From our perspective, it's definitely really bad.

When this came out in 2020, people assumed there's still some time left. But now it seems Gen Brown was speaking of just a few years down the line.

Fielding the NGAD is urgent, Hinote added. While he would not say when the threat will overmatch USAF’s current capabilities, “the time is absolutely coming where the combination of something like a [Chinese] J-20 with an advanced … missile is a threat to air superiority for the United States. … It’s something we’ve got to address.”



There's the upcoming J-31/35. They plan to market it outside China under the FC-31 moniker. The J-10's not enough to counter the Rafales.



We can't afford the Arjuns. But tanks aren't as big a problem though, especially against Pakistan, since we can ensure air superiority against them.



Taiwan is the last ideological bulwark against the Chinese communist ideology that can threaten its existence. If Taiwan goes into Chinese hands, then it basically means an entire race of people who are artificially recognised as Han Chinese will come under one leadership. Post which any other ideology, be it religion or govt, will be a foreign, non-Chinese concept and can be easily separated from the Chinese ethos over the long term.

We need Taiwan to survive on its own because the Chinese in the mainland must eventually see for themselves that the quality of life of a Taiwanese, including the freedom they enjoy, is better than the one in China no matter how rich the mainland gets.

I don't know about NATO, but it seems the US and Japan see the importance of Taiwan and will support its cause. But the main question is if Taiwan is willing to put up a fight. I suppose we will get the answer on the day they are supposed to fight.
In the Mao Zedong era, there was a song called Only the Communist Party can save China. I know many people think it is really ridiculous, but he revealed the fact that even in that era, nationalism was higher than communism.
, CCP promises to lead China to prosperity and strength, but even if China’s GDP exceeds that of the United States, and a China without a unified country, why should it be said that it has risen? The Taiwan issue involves the legality of CCP’s governance.
 
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randomradio

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Oh I meant all of us, not just India. The J-20 maybe a little worse or better(unlikely) than the F-22 or F-35, but it's still much better than the F-15, F-16, Rafale, Typhoon lot the west have.

The main problem is neither the F-22 nor the F-35A can come to the fight. China's too far away. So the only realistic options are the F-35B and C, but you get stuck with limited capabilities compared to A.

As long as Okinawa is functioning, all the F-22 and F-35 can do effectively is air superority missions over Taiwan. If Okinawa ceases to function, then aircraft have to come further inland from Japan using mid-air refuelling, which could significantly reduce time to target, which is a serious problem considering the small number of F-22s available.

I agree with your general opinion that Chinese tech is advancing rapidly. America and the West are inferior or equal to China in many technology aspects and will be much worse later on.

I don't think military technology will be decisive though. AI, digital, automatization, etc will be much more important. Even stuff like oil is rapidly losing it's value strategically.

The problem is upcoming exotic technologies where everybody is starting from the same point. So AI, hypersonics, nanotech, biotech, photonics, quantum computing etc, significant amounts of which will be part of next gen jets coming up within the next 5 years, with technologies retrofitted into current jets as well. So whatever presumed inferiority is present in current Chinese tech will be made up using upcoming technologies.

Thing is folks there's no way China is gonna launch an attack on India realistically. Why would they need to? They can win the world through economics/technology.

Taiwan on the other hand is painted in ideological and nationalistic reasons. That is the human wild card aspect no one can predict.

A war with India will be much more limited than a war over Taiwan. But the probability of war with India is greater over the short term simply because the Chinese will want to accrue experience and test their technologies against a competitor with the least amount of risk. If their performance with India is below expectations, then they are going to think twice before having to go all-in on Taiwan.

The best case for India is if China's time and energy is spent on an increasingly aggressive US until the next decade. China has to live with the fear that if they attack India, the Americans can take the opportunity to sink the PLAN and destroy their shipyards, thereby pushing their navy back by a decade. So that's how QUAD will come into play.
 

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
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Mumbai
In the Mao Zedong era, there was a song called Only the Communist Party can save China. I know many people think it is really ridiculous, but he revealed the fact that even in that era, nationalism was higher than communism.
, CCP promises to lead China to prosperity and strength, but even if China’s GDP exceeds that of the United States, and a China without a unified country, why should it be said that it has risen? The Taiwan issue involves the legality of CCP’s governance.
Frankly if the CCP hadn't made it a life & death issue since the beginning they'd be in a much better place rather than where they are today - boxed in the prison of their own ideology . This could well be a fatal flaw in the CCP armour for by milking CCP obsession with Taiwan, the US doesn't lose much but gets to decide how to box in the CCP .

Regardless , I thought & still do think the CCP showed it's hand way too early . Had they followed Deng's maxim of biding their time & hiding ones strength for another 2 decades & bared their fangs in the 2040's they'd easily get their way with virtually no opposition given the way China was growing economically before the pandemic .

They opened their cards 2 decades too early . The Japanese compare this sentiment of the CCP who think their time has come to the hubris of the pro war Army Faction in pre WW-2 Japan.

That anti colonial nationalist movements took on the form of communism & were synonymous with each other in ways unimaginable today in many parts of the world in the early - mid 19th century was known to others in the 3rd world involved in similar struggles or just out of it ( I'm referring to non communist ideological anti colonial nationalist freedom movements) .

Nehru did caution the Americans of this fallacy of thought when they were getting deeply involved in Vietnam replacing the French during Eisenhower & later the Kennedy presidencies . Unfortunately the red scare was too prevalent in western minds for his advice to be appreciated .

To think both the CCP & VietCong were recipients of US largesse during WW-2 on account of being on the same side with Ho Chi Minh actually expecting the US to side with the Vietnamese & support their claim to be independent over the French after the end of WW-2 . Further , in a bid to resolve the Chinese Civil War , Truman banned US supplies & aid including arms to both the Kuomintang & the CCP for the sake of partiy a decision he came to regret in 1950 during the Korean crisis.

Beginning with Truman , US policy towards China & Pakistan has been a muddle sacrificing long term strategy for immediate tactical gains with India being on the receiving end of the unintended after effects of US foreign policy. It continues to this day .

Anyway the last 2-3 paragraphs were a digression.
 

john0496

Member
Nov 11, 2020
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48
France
If quantity is a quality, from the chinese point of view, they should consider that very soon there will be more indians on earth than chineses ...
Go to war against an ennemy that is bigger in quantity should at least make them have to think about it twice
 

STEPHEN COHEN

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
7,515
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A war with India will be much more limited than a war over Taiwan. But the probability of war with India is greater over the short term simply because the Chinese will want to accrue experience and test their technologies against a competitor with the least amount of risk.


I can think of Three scenarios as to why IAF is not going for additional Rafales right now

1 They think that F 3 is not what they want , ie they want Nothing but the F 4 version

2 IAF does not look at J 20 as a serious threat

3 IAF wants to wait for F4 and till that time Depend on S 400 and Brahmos


After all we are discussing as to what should be India's response to the present and Emerging Threat from PLAAF , why bring in F 22 and F 35 and Taiwan
 

LX1111

Member
May 12, 2021
43
16
china
Frankly if the CCP hadn't made it a life & death issue since the beginning they'd be in a much better place rather than where they are today - boxed in the prison of their own ideology . This could well be a fatal flaw in the CCP armour for by milking CCP obsession with Taiwan, the US doesn't lose much but gets to decide how to box in the CCP .

Regardless , I thought & still do think the CCP showed it's hand way too early . Had they followed Deng's maxim of biding their time & hiding ones strength for another 2 decades & bared their fangs in the 2040's they'd easily get their way with virtually no opposition given the way China was growing economically before the pandemic .

They opened their cards 2 decades too early . The Japanese compare this sentiment of the CCP who think their time has come to the hubris of the pro war Army Faction in pre WW-2 Japan.

That anti colonial nationalist movements took on the form of communism & were synonymous with each other in ways unimaginable today in many parts of the world in the early - mid 19th century was known to others in the 3rd world involved in similar struggles or just out of it ( I'm referring to non communist ideological anti colonial nationalist freedom movements) .

Nehru did caution the Americans of this fallacy of thought when they were getting deeply involved in Vietnam replacing the French during Eisenhower & later the Kennedy presidencies . Unfortunately the red scare was too prevalent in western minds for his advice to be appreciated .

To think both the CCP & VietCong were recipients of US largesse during WW-2 on account of being on the same side with Ho Chi Minh actually expecting the US to side with the Vietnamese & support their claim to be independent over the French after the end of WW-2 . Further , in a bid to resolve the Chinese Civil War , Truman banned US supplies & aid including arms to both the Kuomintang & the CCP for the sake of partiy a decision he came to regret in 1950 during the Korean crisis.

Beginning with Truman , US policy towards China & Pakistan has been a muddle sacrificing long term strategy for immediate tactical gains with India being on the receiving end of the unintended after effects of US foreign policy. It continues to this day .

Anyway the last 2-3 paragraphs were a digression.
Why did Christians, Muslims, and Jews continue to fight for Jerusalem for thousands of years? There is no gold
Why does France have to ruin a generation for Alsace and Lorraine? There are only a few iron mines
Why did Britain still send troops to recapture the Falkland Islands during the economic crisis? Only wool is produced there
A religion, a nation, a country needs something to unite together,
Taiwan is the same for China,
From a strategic point of view, Taiwan is just next to China’s richest southeast coast. It is like a sword on the heart of China. If we will get Taiwan back, he will become the strongest armor on our body. , In front of us is the vast western Pacific,
Is China aggressive? Last month, the US aircraft carrier battle group was less than 200km away from Shanghai.
In the past, we did not want to conflict with others. We always gave some economic benefits to settle the disputes. The only result was that more and more countries disputed with us, because we would always give them economic benefits.
After 2009, we need to find a market for our surplus industrial products, and at the same time find a raw material base for our companies that is not controlled by the West, so we propose the Belt and Road Initiative
After 2010, we hope to upgrade the manufacturing industry before labor costs rise
So made in China 2025
The West regards these two as China’s aggressive behavior.
I’m sorry, we are just praying for survival.
 

LX1111

Member
May 12, 2021
43
16
china
I can think of Three scenarios as to why IAF is not going for additional Rafales right now

1 They think that F 3 is not what they want , ie they want Nothing but the F 4 version

2 IAF does not look at J 20 as a serious threat

3 IAF wants to wait for F4 and till that time Depend on S 400 and Brahmos


After all we are discussing as to what should be India's response to the present and Emerging Threat from PLAAF , why bring in F 22 and F 35 and Taiwan
First, the production of the French Rafale is limited. Second, India does not have so much foreign exchange. Third, the top priority of the Indian Air Force is to upgrade su30mki. Fourth, if India really wants to form air superiority over China, buy F35 block4.1.
 

LX1111

Member
May 12, 2021
43
16
china
View attachment 20259

So J-20 units have been raised in 4 bases as of this month. 2 are training units, Dingxin and Changzhou. The other two are operational units, Quzhou and Anshan. The Anshan base comes with a new engine type with LO features, 147KN. Even the older jets could be reengined with the WS-10C.

With 4 units raised, we are talking about at least 4 regiments of 24 jets each, we can speculate that at least 1 more regiment is in the process of being raised, followed by another within the same year, since the Chinese are capable of producing 48 jets a year.

So by the end of the year, we may see at least 1 J-20 regiment assigned to an air brigade in the WTC, with the other one likely along the Russian border, or worse, along the southern border close to India in the Southern Command.

This should be followed by 2 more regiments next year, which could take the total fleet to 8 regiments. That's as many as 192 J-20s at the minimum by the end of 2022, likely more than that since raising units takes time post delivery of jets.

From 2023 onwards, we may see the induction of J-20s with the definitive engine, 180KN, which will change the game completely. At best, 2024.

By 2028, even before we likely receive even 1 squadron of the Rafale F4.2, the Chinese will have completed the induction of the J-20C.
India feels that the speed of China's J20 equipment is very fast, in my opinion, it is very slow. In 2023, there will be at least 300 F35s around China.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
14,983
10,992
India
I can think of Three scenarios as to why IAF is not going for additional Rafales right now

1 They think that F 3 is not what they want , ie they want Nothing but the F 4 version

2 IAF does not look at J 20 as a serious threat

3 IAF wants to wait for F4 and till that time Depend on S 400 and Brahmos


After all we are discussing as to what should be India's response to the present and Emerging Threat from PLAAF , why bring in F 22 and F 35 and Taiwan

It's none of those though. The IAF will induct any version of the Rafale since it's better than anything else in our inventory.

It's all about money. We simply don't have enough of it to meet the IAF's needs. If not, we would have inducted the Rafale long ago. And we do not have money for two reasons, I mean for defence spending. One is the govt doesn't want to overspend on defence when they are still fixing the economy. The second is they did not consider the Chinese to become as aggressive as they are now. The 36 Rafales were meant to have overwhelming superiority against the Pakistanis, not the Chinese. So they decided they did not need the 72-80 jets that the IAF initially wanted as part of emergency purchases.

The Chinese used to be underestimated, it's not the case any more. It took the Americans until 2015 to stop underestimating their industry. Especially so after witnessing their naval buildup.
 

STEPHEN COHEN

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
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It's none of those though. The IAF will induct any version of the Rafale since it's better than anything else in our inventory.

It's all about money. We simply don't have enough of it to meet the IAF's needs. If not, we would have inducted the Rafale long ago. And we do not have money for two reasons, I mean for defence spending. One is the govt doesn't want to overspend on defence when they are still fixing the economy. The second is they did not consider the Chinese to become as aggressive as they are now. The 36 Rafales were meant to have overwhelming superiority against the Pakistanis, not the Chinese. So they decided they did not need the 72-80 jets that the IAF initially wanted as part of emergency purchases.

The Chinese used to be underestimated, it's not the case any more. It took the Americans until 2015 to stop underestimating their industry. Especially so after witnessing their naval buildup.

IAF ' s Uncharacteristically LAID back Response to PLAAF , makes me wonder if we have entered into a Secret Agreement with USAF

40 Odd F 15s should be enough for India , if a Conflict does really begin
 

_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
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Why did Christians, Muslims, and Jews continue to fight for Jerusalem for thousands of years? There is no gold
Why does France have to ruin a generation for Alsace and Lorraine? There are only a few iron mines
Why did Britain still send troops to recapture the Falkland Islands during the economic crisis? Only wool is produced there.
The quest for Jerusalem is not so much a life & death matter for the Christians as it is for the Muslims. The Jews are a recent entrant . In any case no nation is claiming Jerusalem only the Palestinians are . You're referring to history here not current events.

France & Germany have fought over this region for centuries before realising the futility of it . Today it hardly matters to both nations though to reach here it took the loss of millions of lives & resources .
A religion, a nation, a country needs something to unite together,
Taiwan is the same for China
I find it hard to believe a nation as mighty as China - being one of the 2 oldest continuous civilization states , thinks getting Taiwan is it's only raison d'etre. I can't quite tell if it's an inferiority complex or an obsession . There's Port Arthur & portions of Manchuria with Russia , Mongolia's independent too , etc . The same logic may & by the looks of it will be extended here .

At the end of the day the CCP seems to have calculated that all this prosperity that China has accumulated in the past 4 decades is to build up it's military might to reclaim all those territories it thinks & claims as legitimately theirs & to that end it's willing to pay the price & exact the same from those it perceives as it's foes .

I doubt the CCP is willing to wager the future of China or itself to achieve these ends .
I say this for the problem with such grandiose plans is they rarely stay true to the original script .

At one level the Taiwan dilemma seems ridiculously foolish & at another it poses the eternal question - power can't be for the sake of itself unless it gets you what you desire .
From a strategic point of view, Taiwan is just next to China’s richest southeast coast. It is like a sword on the heart of China. If we will get Taiwan back, he will become the strongest armor on our body. , In front of us is the vast western Pacific,

This reasoning makes more sense than your previous one although I suspect that for the CCP both hold true.

Is China aggressive? Last month, the US aircraft carrier battle group was less than 200km away from Shanghai.
In the past, we did not want to conflict with others. We always gave some economic benefits to settle the disputes. The only result was that more and more countries disputed with us, because we would always give them economic benefits.
That's history. It depends on whether you want to learn from it or remain hostage to it . The world & it's history is no stranger to y'days victims becoming today's oppressors.

After 2009, we need to find a market for our surplus industrial products, and at the same time find a raw material base for our companies that is not controlled by the West, so we propose the Belt and Road Initiative
After 2010, we hope to upgrade the manufacturing industry before labor costs rise
So made in China 2025
The West regards these two as China’s aggressive behavior.
It's not just the west , it's your own neighbours who feel threatened . Had China the magnanimity & more importantly the sagacity to carry it's neighbours with itself the West would be redundant . After all the Japanese SoKo & the ASEAN nations are offering their lands as a base to the West , principally the US imploring it to be more invested in their own security .

Of course the US & the west seek to maintain their own hegemony just as China seeks to establish its own reinventing the world order in it's image. The only problem here is nobody sees it the way China does. In other words China has no allies unless you include the ones like Pakistan or NoKo or probably Iran in the near future.
I’m sorry, we are just praying for survival.
As an ex foreign secretary of ours & a China specialist recently remarked - China's diplomats & politicians are bewildered at the all around increasing hostility they're encountering since the past 2 decades. Make out of it what you may .
 
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_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
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Opening salvos will be SEAD & DEAD missions which will be accomplished by stealth aircraft. In case of the US it means F-35 with F-22 escorting them in . The F-15's don't enter the picture till later .


We already have the Su-30MKI which will escort the Rafales. Where's the scope for F-15 ?
I don't think so

Will the US hence forth only rely on F 35 and F 22 against China
 

Innominate

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Jun 23, 2021
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California
I don't think so

Will the US hence forth only rely on F 35 and F 22 against China
In a war against chicoms or Russia the US will breakout its black program toys that called a "non-existing" base in Nevada home.

@1:25 is the news report.

Not the B-21 or NGAD but some other military craft that the USAF decided to let chicoms and Russia know what we got or they wouldn't have flown them on a cloudless day over a populated area at contrail altitude. This was a message.