Pakistan Economy : Updates and Discussions

screambowl

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Dec 19, 2017
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IT is here and it is blowing up on them massively now. The double tsunami of inflation and a rising trade deficit blew its bounds in the month of November and there are no indications yet that we have hit the peak. Faced with this situation, they are now increasingly wearing a haggard look and getting testy in their temperament. They have every reason to. The road ahead is a tough one, and the circumstances anything but conducive to decisive decision-making.

As explained by Abraj, Pakistan's economy runs in a different way. Their formal sector is doomed, but their informal sector is growing itself. The current informal sector has 56% of GDP's capital as compared to 5% in 50's then 15% in 60s. That's close 185 billion dollars.

They want to bring their informal sector to 100% of GDP, which will not be under any world bank scrutiny.

It is similar not same, to Manmohan's idea of keeping two economies. One informal and second formal, they both support eachother.
 

lcafanboy

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Dec 22, 2017
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Boys are playing well, PKR RS 189 to 1 dollar, just short or RS 11 for double century, which should be achieved by end of the year itself....🤗😊😊😊
@safriz your Take on the massive achievement of Pakistan. The boys are really on roll PKR RS 189 to 1 US dollar not out.

With full steam on and it looks like they're not losing steam in near future and may cross RS 200 mark by year end itself just look at the future inflation rates, interest rates and the massive rise in the amount of Pakistan's Liabilities in rupee terms and the need to Tax massively already poor Pakistanis and the following revolt against the current dispensation of Imran Khan and military establishment to cut down heavily on the defence spending due to stringent terms and conditions of IMF loans if at all Pakistan clears FATF.

It's checkmate for Pakistan by brilliant planning by Modi government. Implode Pakistan internally and win war without fighting.

US did same to erstwhile USSR and now India to Pakistan.

It all started with demonetization in India to stop Pakistan from putting a Straw into the Indian economy and keep sucking it like they did during chor-gress and no one thought it will be so fast... 😊😊
 

_Anonymous_

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@safriz your Take on the massive achievement of Pakistan. The boys are really on roll PKR RS 189 to 1 US dollar not out.

With full steam on and it looks like they're not losing steam in near future and may cross RS 200 mark by year end itself just look at the future inflation rates, interest rates and the massive rise in the amount of Pakistan's Liabilities in rupee terms and the need to Tax massively already poor Pakistanis and the following revolt against the current dispensation of Imran Khan and military establishment to cut down heavily on the defence spending due to stringent terms and conditions of IMF loans if at all Pakistan clears FATF.

It's checkmate for Pakistan by brilliant planning by Modi government. Implode Pakistan internally and win war without fighting.

US did same to erstwhile USSR and now India to Pakistan.

It all started with demonetization in India to stop Pakistan from putting a Straw into the Indian economy and keep sucking it like they did during chor-gress and no one thought it will be so fast... 😊😊
Maamu is on our side in this one although he'd never show it. How you ask? It's like this. The more PKR plunges the more desperate the situation in Paxtan, the more desperate the situation the more the destitution but the better the value for dollars & pounds.

There's a killing to be made in real estate back home. That's where maamu will be looking to profit from.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Maamu is on our side in this one although he'd never show it. How you ask? It's like this. The more PKR plunges the more desperate the situation in Paxtan, the more desperate the situation the more the destitution but the better the value for dollars & pounds.

There's a killing to be made in real estate back home. That's where maamu will be looking to profit from.


Real estate is the only avenue left for growth

But that will further hurt the manufacturing sector which is already under pressure due to inflation and rupee's fall against the dollar

Private sector will not invest in so much uncertainties filled economic scenario

The worst thing that has happened in last month is that IMF has disallowed borrowings from Central Bank

So Private banks have jacked up the interest rates for the Govt Bonds thus further increasing the debt burden on GOP

This is the first step towards Hyperinflation
 

_Anonymous_

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Real estate is the only avenue left for growth

But that will further hurt the manufacturing sector which is already under pressure due to inflation and rupee's fall against the dollar

The worst thing that has happened in last month is that IMF has disallowed borrowings from Central Bank

So Private banks have jacked up the interest rates for the Govt Bonds thus further increasing the debt burden on GOP

This is the first step towards Hyperinflation
I'm surprised there's a manufacturing sector left in Paxtan after their free trade agreement with China & CPEC , just as I was surprised to know a year back , that there was a stock exchange in Karachi.

In any case , we'd now begin to see the informal manufacturing sector thriving like those Kalashnikov workshops in Dara Adam Khel etc .

In any case , in the near term future the only market worth banking on to provide excellent returns in Paxtan is the real estate market.

Pls avail of this opportunity , maamu . Such golden moments come but once in one's lifetime & mostly not at all. Your future generations may just be so grateful they'd create a mausoleum in your name & pretty soon we may see a dargah there too with your descendants as it's sajdanasheens .

After all peeri is one business that's been there forever in Paxtan , much before Fauji Foundation or Ganja's steel industry or Bahria Foundation or the petty bureaucracy . @safriz
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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I'm surprised there's a manufacturing sector left in Paxtan after their free trade agreement with China & CPEC , just as I was surprised to know a year back , that there was a stock exchange in Karachi.

In any case , we'd now begin to see the informal manufacturing sector thriving like those Kalashnikov workshops in Dara Adam Khel etc .

In any case , in the near term future the only market worth banking on to provide excellent returns in Paxtan is the real estate market.

Pls avail of this opportunity , maamu . Such golden moments come but once in one's lifetime & mostly not at all. Your future generations may just be so grateful they'd create a mausoleum in your name & pretty soon we may see a dargah there too with your descendants as it's sajdanasheens .

After all peeri is one business that's been there forever in Paxtan , much before Fauji Foundation or Ganja's steel industry or Bahria Foundation or the petty bureaucracy . @safriz

What Imran Govt is doing is , that it Only wants to avoid Defaulting on foreign loan repayment

So they are agreeing to All sorts of humiliating conditions , whether it is Saudi or IMF or Chinese

But this will come at a domestic price ie rising discontent and unpopularity

There is something coming called
Mini Budget in next 2 weeks , An IMF precondition

It involves raising lots of taxes even further

It is a slow moving Train Wreck
 

_Anonymous_

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In the coming decades this is one huge problem India, it's immediate neighborhood & the world at large will have to grapple with.

Going back to the Karzai & Ghani administrations in Afghanistan we saw how the Taliban along with elements in the Afghan administration were involved in trafficking of drugs. As the hold of the administration started collapsing accompanied in parallel with the Taliban's rise to power, the area of drugs under cultivation saw an exponential rise.

Arguably this is how Iran thru the IRGC managed to acquire leverage with a section of the Taliban not fully on board with deep state in Pakistan which helped them traffic these narcotics presumably with a share in the profits. These relations still continue & are thriving. A direct consequence of it is the exponential rise in drugs seized off the Gujarat coast.

To make matters worse, as the economic squeeze on the Taliban gathers momentum they'd definitely shift to narcotics to boost their finances which in turn is expected to coincide with the collapse of the economy in Pakistan.

What'd that do to the PA & it's supporting ecosystem is anybody's guess but the business of narcotics & narco terrorism is sure to acquire ominous proportions for us in the days to come especially in vulnerable States like the Punjab.

There were a few tweets around the time Modi withdrew the farm laws stating that both the RSS & the intelligence apparatus indicated Khalistani elements were gaining ground & the withdrawal of those laws were precisely to stymie their influence especially given that polls were around the corner. You're free to draw your own conclusions.
 

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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In the coming decades this is one huge problem India, it's immediate neighborhood & the world at large will have to grapple with.

Going back to the Karzai & Ghani administrations in Afghanistan we saw how the Taliban along with elements in the Afghan administration were involved in trafficking of drugs. As the hold of the administration started collapsing accompanied in parallel with the Taliban's rise to power, the area of drugs under cultivation saw an exponential rise.

Arguably this is how Iran thru the IRGC managed to acquire leverage with a section of the Taliban not fully on board with deep state in Pakistan which helped them traffic these narcotics presumably with a share in the profits. These relations still continue & are thriving. A direct consequence of it is the exponential rise in drugs seized off the Gujarat coast.

To make matters worse, as the economic squeeze on the Taliban gathers momentum they'd definitely shift to narcotics to boost their finances which in turn is expected to coincide with the collapse of the economy in Pakistan.

What'd that do to the PA & it's supporting ecosystem is anybody's guess but the business of narcotics & narco terrorism is sure to acquire ominous proportions for us in the days to come especially in vulnerable States like the Punjab.

There were a few tweets around the time Modi withdrew the farm laws stating that both the RSS & the intelligence apparatus indicated Khalistani elements were gaining ground & the withdrawal of those laws were precisely to stymie their influence especially given that polls were around the corner. You're free to draw your own conclusions.

China will take large chunks of Land
And Bail Out Pakistan

China wants land in POK and Baloochistan
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Moral of the story : if you're neck deep in debt & you're still getting loans at high interest rates , who's the dummy out here ?

It is still a mystery , who is investing in Pak bonds

Avi Raina Notwithstanding , Bankruptcy is just 2 years away
 
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jetray

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Mar 15, 2018
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3 billion Saudi loan is at 4%. The Sukuk bond for 1 billion was for 7.95%.
Chinese one may be near 7-8 % atleast. Some amount which is under investment, is at 12%.
there is more masala is in conditions.


"The Saudi government has told us that they can ask for their [entire] money back if Pakistan defaults at any point," Tarin said. He assured the house that Pakistan "will not default".