Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

thinkingcap81

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It's a very weird situation, and it entirely depends on the US. If the US protects Taiwan, China won't attack Taiwan for a very long time. But if the US decides they are only going to watch, then China will most definitely invade, but will get stuck in a protracted guerilla war. At the very least, we know Taiwan is unlikely to go down without a fight since the Taiwanese military and political leadership know exactly what fate awaits them if they fall into the CCP's hands.

Xi wants to create a legacy in this third term, before he leaves office. He obviously can't challenge the Japanese over Senkaku yet, since the US's full intervention is guaranteed. China can't challenge Russia yet. So it's either Taiwan or Tawang.



With America's new chip policy, they could end up becoming self-sufficient in chip production, so they are unlikely to make any decisions based on Taiwan's semiconductor industry alone.
I recon that as far as Taiwan is concerned, nothing much will happen beyond bombastic comments. Xi has already toned down his rhetoric after Biden also sought to diffuse tensions by speaking with him on this matter.

As you said Japan and Russia are out of question. In future also Russia will be safe as their MIL + cyber warfare has become more active of late.

If US needs to protect Taiwan then all it needs to do is to station a minimum force there and hint that an attack on Taiwan is an attack on their military. Alternative chip manufacturing plants will come up sooner than later. And recent news articles indicate that the Taiwanese aren't much bothered about any invasion from China - not because they are assured that Taiwan can defend or US will help, but they just do not seem to be bothered. Taiwanese are more into leading a life with a knowledge based society and material comforts - and war is not aviable option for them.

See here: In Taipei, people don't seem worried about potential for China-Taiwan conflict

That leaves India to bare the brunt of Xi's PLA and PLAAF. However unless Xi is able to convince the Chinese that an assault on India is very important, we'll not be having an war-like situation since they won't attack and we are not in a position to initiate hostilities. PLA and PLAAF know that IA and IAF will launch a very credible counterattack and defence.

We'll know if Xi wants to do something if there is consistent anti-India rhetoric for many many months. And that'll take time to fructify. In the meantime we'll have to race ahead and mount diplomatic efforts and insulate ourselves in terms of critical infra, crippling cyber attacks etc.

Once GoI is convinced that we have credible defence or offensive-defence against China to even deter Global Times from publishing their silly articles, the focus will shift towards Pakistan and LoC since stalling China means that we're in a very much superior position with respect to Pakistan.

But again the dynamics will depend on which party or coalition is in power.
 

randomradio

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If US needs to protect Taiwan then all it needs to do is to station a minimum force there and hint that an attack on Taiwan is an attack on their military. Alternative chip manufacturing plants will come up sooner than later. And recent news articles indicate that the Taiwanese aren't much bothered about any invasion from China - not because they are assured that Taiwan can defend or US will help, but they just do not seem to be bothered. Taiwanese are more into leading a life with a knowledge based society and material comforts - and war is not aviable option for them.

The US is practicing strategic ambiguity. It gives them the option to go to war or retreat depending on the situation.

Also, if the US commits to the defence of Taiwan, then the Taiwanese will slack off. And without Taiwan constantly sharpening its own sword, there's no way for the US to help them. Simply put, the Taiwanese need the ability to defend themselves all on their own for the US to contribute.

Plus it forces the Chinese to keep guessing, which forces them to spend time and money wondering if the forces they have raised to retake Taiwan will be enough or not.


With all due respect to Ms. Huang, she has no clue what she's talking about. China could only threaten Taiwan during her earlier years because they did not have the capability to invade Taiwan at the time. Now it's different. This year, or even next year, will mark the first time the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/14/asia/taiwan-china-taipei-people-intl-hnk/index.html
That leaves India to bare the brunt of Xi's PLA and PLAAF. However unless Xi is able to convince the Chinese that an assault on India is very important, we'll not be having an war-like situation since they won't attack and we are not in a position to initiate hostilities. PLA and PLAAF know that IA and IAF will launch a very credible counterattack and defence.

We'll know if Xi wants to do something if there is consistent anti-India rhetoric for many many months. And that'll take time to fructify. In the meantime we'll have to race ahead and mount diplomatic efforts and insulate ourselves in terms of critical infra, crippling cyber attacks etc.

Once GoI is convinced that we have credible defence or offensive-defence against China to even deter Global Times from publishing their silly articles, the focus will shift towards Pakistan and LoC since stalling China means that we're in a very much superior position with respect to Pakistan.

But again the dynamics will depend on which party or coalition is in power.

I honestly don't believe China needs to give an excuse to their citizens to fight India. Since India is already a weak country in the minds of the Chinese, a border war with India is unlikely to faze them. Plus any war with India is unlikely to go beyond the border anyway. Furthermore, the Chinese could restrict any action in areas where they already have an advantage, like Depsang, putting the onus on India to attack areas where the Chinese are at a disadvantage, like Chushul.

As for credible defence, we have already had that since early summer this year. Anything new since then are just extras.

Over the next few years, taking back PoK is going to gain significance. I hope the govt is considering something. We need to physically separate the two countries now.
 
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thinkingcap81

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The US is practicing strategic ambiguity. It gives them the option to go to war or retreat depending on the situation.

Also, if the US commits to the defence of Taiwan, then the Taiwanese will slack off. And without Taiwan constantly sharpening its own sword, there's no way for the US to help them. Simply put, the Taiwanese need the ability to defend themselves all on their own for the US to contribute.

Plus it forces the Chinese to keep guessing, which forces them to spend time and money wondering if the forces they have raised to retake Taiwan will be enough or not.
Agreed.

With all due respect to Ms. Huang, she has no clue what she's talking about. China could only threaten Taiwan during her earlier years because they did not have the capability to invade Taiwan at the time. Now it's different. This year, or even next year, will mark the first time the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
In Taipei, people don't seem worried about potential for China-Taiwan conflict
She may not know and her thoughts are probably based on what she saw as a young woman. However the article also quotes a couple of younger ones whose opinions are not very different. Taiwan's KMT party favours reunification and they were in power about a decade back. However now the opinion towards China has soured and DPP is easily the most popular one. But we cannot dismiss that there is a considerable chunk of Taiwanese who might not oppose a much softer line torards the mainland. Also, the economic interrelationship is just too much to be ignored. These influential people and businesses play a very important role in deciding public opinion. People think of protecting their today rather than thinking of a rosy future a couple of decades from now.

I honestly don't believe China needs to give an excuse to their citizens to fight India. Since India is already a weak country in the minds of the Chinese, a border war with India is unlikely to faze them. Plus any war with India is unlikely to go beyond the border anyway. Furthermore, the Chinese could restrict any action in areas where they already have an advantage, like Depsang, putting the onus on India to attack areas where the Chinese are at a disadvantage, like Chushul.
Let the Chinese think that we are the weakest nation on Earth, it doesn't matter. We know that Bangladesh is no match for us and that Sri Lanka is playing us against China, but can we attack them? Such a thought does not even cross our minds. Likewise the Chinese public need to be convinced of the worth of attacking India. And if a war does take place how will the CCP explain the resulting damage on China when the public don't even properly know the utility of the war?

Once war starts there's no guarantee of the areas which will see action, just like Pak thought in 1965 that everything will be limited to J & K.

As for credible defence, we have already had that since early summer this year. Anything new since then are just extras.

Over the next few years, taking back PoK is going to gain significance. I hope the govt is considering something. We need to physically separate the two countries now.
I meant that defence having sufficient offensive capability vis-a-vis china at all times without compromising on our capabilities to hit Pak hard without being subjected to uncomfortable damage. This will take some more time.

Don't know how to do it since CPEC is there. If China says that an attack on CPEC is an attack on them, then it will be a very big statement and will have a lot of repercussions. If US begins to hurt Pak economically, Chinese economic growth slows down quite a bit and we grow a lot, then it'll be interesting.
 
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SrNair

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India revolves around PM when government changes both military and foreign policy changes.


I am not being emotional. I am talking about after 5 years. During Kargil also no one dared to cross LC. And after 5 years no one will once again dare to cross LC openly. Because the government will not be as strong as it is now.


Then take POK. Without territorial gains you are not a military power mind that.
Nope.
As of now unless there is a path breaking technology to crack the defense facilites of a nation we cant directly invade the Pakistan.

For them nothing to lose .
Chinese are much stronger than us as per the public statistics .But they are refrain from attacking us .Same reason India wont attack Pakistan.

Pakistan must give us a reason to invade them.
We cant be afford to become an invader without any reason.
2019 was an opportunity if we had long range SAM.

Let the nation and force close the gap in our abilities and at the same time let the PK must be in that status quo.
 

SrNair

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Mar 12, 2018
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The US is practicing strategic ambiguity. It gives them the option to go to war or retreat depending on the situation.

Also, if the US commits to the defence of Taiwan, then the Taiwanese will slack off. And without Taiwan constantly sharpening its own sword, there's no way for the US to help them. Simply put, the Taiwanese need the ability to defend themselves all on their own for the US to contribute.

Plus it forces the Chinese to keep guessing, which forces them to spend time and money wondering if the forces they have raised to retake Taiwan will be enough or not.



With all due respect to Ms. Huang, she has no clue what she's talking about. China could only threaten Taiwan during her earlier years because they did not have the capability to invade Taiwan at the time. Now it's different. This year, or even next year, will mark the first time the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
In Taipei, people don't seem worried about potential for China-Taiwan conflict


I honestly don't believe China needs to give an excuse to their citizens to fight India. Since India is already a weak country in the minds of the Chinese, a border war with India is unlikely to faze them. Plus any war with India is unlikely to go beyond the border anyway. Furthermore, the Chinese could restrict any action in areas where they already have an advantage, like Depsang, putting the onus on India to attack areas where the Chinese are at a disadvantage, like Chushul.

As for credible defence, we have already had that since early summer this year. Anything new since then are just extras.

Over the next few years, taking back PoK is going to gain significance. I hope the govt is considering something. We need to physically separate the two countries now.

Yup.
But we need to close the gap in our abilities with Chinese and at least 70% of our inventories must be our own.
Taking back PoK and GB is the best option to reduce the militant issue in valley because the fight now shift to further west and north.
All we need to do is to allow ripe pK fruit until then.
 

SrNair

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Mar 12, 2018
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I recon that as far as Taiwan is concerned, nothing much will happen beyond bombastic comments. Xi has already toned down his rhetoric after Biden also sought to diffuse tensions by speaking with him on this matter.

As you said Japan and Russia are out of question. In future also Russia will be safe as their MIL + cyber warfare has become more active of late.

If US needs to protect Taiwan then all it needs to do is to station a minimum force there and hint that an attack on Taiwan is an attack on their military. Alternative chip manufacturing plants will come up sooner than later. And recent news articles indicate that the Taiwanese aren't much bothered about any invasion from China - not because they are assured that Taiwan can defend or US will help, but they just do not seem to be bothered. Taiwanese are more into leading a life with a knowledge based society and material comforts - and war is not aviable option for them.

See here: In Taipei, people don't seem worried about potential for China-Taiwan conflict

That leaves India to bare the brunt of Xi's PLA and PLAAF. However unless Xi is able to convince the Chinese that an assault on India is very important, we'll not be having an war-like situation since they won't attack and we are not in a position to initiate hostilities. PLA and PLAAF know that IA and IAF will launch a very credible counterattack and defence.

We'll know if Xi wants to do something if there is consistent anti-India rhetoric for many many months. And that'll take time to fructify. In the meantime we'll have to race ahead and mount diplomatic efforts and insulate ourselves in terms of critical infra, crippling cyber attacks etc.

Once GoI is convinced that we have credible defence or offensive-defence against China to even deter Global Times from publishing their silly articles, the focus will shift towards Pakistan and LoC since stalling China means that we're in a very much superior position with respect to Pakistan.

But again the dynamics will depend on which party or coalition is in power.

Any clash that cause destruction of equipments and casualities wont work in favour for Chinese.
Because it will reduce the invincibility of the Chinese Supremacy.
Chinese thinks to subdue Taiwan without any attack constantly threaten them with attack and cause insecurities in their citizen.
Through that way they wont lose anything..A method US employed when they attack the Iraq .
But none of this wont work with India.
It will get bloody and will turn to War of attrition.
 
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SrNair

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Agreed.


She may not know and her thoughts are probably based on what she saw as a young woman. However the article also quotes a couple of younger ones whose opinions are not very different. Taiwan's KMT party favours reunification and they were in power about a decade back. However now the opinion towards China has soured and DPP is easily the most popular one. But we cannot dismiss that there is a considerable chunk of Taiwanese who might not oppose a much softer line torards the mainland. Also, the economic interrelationship is just too much to be ignored. These influential people and businesses play a very important role in deciding public opinion. People think of protecting their today rather than thinking of a rosy future a couple of decades from now.


Let the Chinese think that we are the weakest nation on Earth, it doesn't matter. We know that Bangladesh is no match for us and that Sri Lanka is playing us against China, but can we attack them? Such a thought does not even cross our minds. Likewise the Chinese public need to be convinced of the worth of attacking India. And if a war does take place how will the CCP explain the resulting damage on China when the public don't even properly know the utility of the war?

Once war starts there's no guarantee of the areas which will see action, just like Pak thought in 1965 that everything will be limited to J & K.


I meant that defence having sufficient offensive capability vis-a-vis china at all times without compromising on our capabilities to hit Pak hard without being subjected to uncomfortable damage. This will take some more time.

Don't know how to do it since CPEC is there. If China says that an attack on CPEC is an attack on them, then it will be a very big statement and will have a lot of repercussions. If US begins to hurt Pak economically, Chinese economic growth slows down quite a bit and we grow a lot, then it'll be interesting.

This decade will decides the future .
Because we will become much capable economically,militarily and technologically.
And if a war with us will be far more expensive than those 60 billion CPEC then the
Chinese might forget the Pakistan if they cant offer anything worthy to them.
After all there wont be any permanent friends only interests.
But much of it depends on the situation in India.
Practically we need Chinese there if not the Western vultures will turn against us.
Americans abondoning all those small arms in Afghanistan was a game to bleed us .
 

screambowl

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Pakistan must give us a reason to invade them.

who gives a reason? wait another 1400 years to get a reason.
We cant be afford to become an invader without any reason.

you can only afford to be invaded then.
2019 was an opportunity if we had long range SAM.

just because of SAM? LOL what a joke

Chinese might forget the Pakistan if they cant offer anything worthy to them.

'might' is a very fancy world

yes when government changes India's policy changes. That's not a big thing to know.
 

SrNair

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who gives a reason? wait another 1400 years to get a reason.


you can only afford to be invaded then.


just because of SAM? LOL what a joke



'might' is a very fancy world


yes when government changes India's policy changes. That's not a big thing to know.

Yes.
Highly defense system with SAM can change the scenario.
So thats why we need to fill gap in our prepardness.
Any invasion without preparation will be blow back for sure
To become an invader without any reason is too costly.Being a democratic state most probably opposition will oppose.
Suppose, somehow if they keep quiet next thing comes Pakistan all weather friend China will mobilise their diplomats and machinery .
Through diplomacy they can inflict heavy damage to our Oil supply.
GCC will support Paxtan .Turkey will actively support Paxtan.Western nations will either keep quiet or will support Paxtan or split up with one Indias side other one Paxtan.
India still imports majority weapons.So our so called friends like Russia,US or even France will rip us with exports .
On ground level even if India capture PoK nuke will come in to table ,and fighters from the Afghanistan and decades long insurgency.

If Pakistan is the one that attack India then last sentence in last para will come to play.
Fighters from Afghan and decade long insurgency.
That we can manage .

Which one will you chose?
99% Indians will chose second option.
Because even if they didnt attack us .
We can do a Crimea if we continues our current game .And an invasion can be an option because within that time we will be weapons self reliant .
 

screambowl

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Highly defense system with SAM can change the scenario.
So thats why we need to fill gap in our prepardness.

Please don't give such reasons. Government is fully capable to acquire anything. You have no idea.
To become an invader without any reason is too costly.Being a democratic state most probably opposition will oppose.
Americans are also democratic.
Through diplomacy they can inflict heavy damage to our Oil supply.

Oil supply won't be hurt. Not going to happen. This world right now needs money. And you have money.
GCC will support Paxtan .Turkey will actively support Paxtan.Western nations will either keep quiet or will support Paxtan or split up with one Indias side other one Paxtan.

Let them do it. So?
India still imports majority weapons.So our so called friends like Russia,US or even France will rip us with exports

They want money , diplomacy without money and resources doesn't happen.
On ground level even if India capture PoK nuke will come in to table

Pakistan captured Kashmir in Kargil did you fire nuke? That time you had nukes and Pakistan didn't have the delivery system for the nukes.
We can do a Crimea if we continues our current game .

Crimea happened because whole EU is dependent on Russia for energy.
 

randomradio

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She may not know and her thoughts are probably based on what she saw as a young woman. However the article also quotes a couple of younger ones whose opinions are not very different. Taiwan's KMT party favours reunification and they were in power about a decade back. However now the opinion towards China has soured and DPP is easily the most popular one. But we cannot dismiss that there is a considerable chunk of Taiwanese who might not oppose a much softer line torards the mainland. Also, the economic interrelationship is just too much to be ignored. These influential people and businesses play a very important role in deciding public opinion. People think of protecting their today rather than thinking of a rosy future a couple of decades from now.

I wouldn't put too much faith in the opinions of a few individuals that were cherry-picked for the article. You will find an article with an alternate viewpoint as well. At the very least the govt in power is rabidly anti-China.

Let the Chinese think that we are the weakest nation on Earth, it doesn't matter. We know that Bangladesh is no match for us and that Sri Lanka is playing us against China, but can we attack them? Such a thought does not even cross our minds. Likewise the Chinese public need to be convinced of the worth of attacking India. And if a war does take place how will the CCP explain the resulting damage on China when the public don't even properly know the utility of the war?

Once war starts there's no guarantee of the areas which will see action, just like Pak thought in 1965 that everything will be limited to J & K.

That's actually what the CCP is wrestling with right now. If they go to war with India and lose, then they can kiss their unification goodbye. With their actions in Galwan, to borrow a Chinese expression, they have quite literally kicked an iron plate.

The thing is no one knows their intentions right now. Some are saying their jingoism surrounding Taiwan is to distract the world away from Ladakh, while others are saying they will deal with Taiwan first, before India. And when they deal with India, they are talking about an all-out border war across the entire LAC. And everything centers around the decision of just one man, Xi Jinping. He's like the new age Hitler, with many options to choose from. Hell, he could end up attacking Mongolia first. The guy is hellbent on creating a legacy for himself.

I meant that defence having sufficient offensive capability vis-a-vis china at all times without compromising on our capabilities to hit Pak hard without being subjected to uncomfortable damage. This will take some more time.

With the exception of reogranization, we are already there. The army is only awaiting new air defence systems though, but that's really about it, and even in this case, the air force has become strong enough to make up for the army's air defence deficiencies. The army has been ready to attack Pakistan for quite a few years now.

When it comes to limited war, we already have more than enough capacity. When it comes to a major war, it's gonna be a one-time event, so any damage won't have to be replaced. In any case, we are in control here, and it's unlikely for us to see any major war with Pakistan for quite a few years.

Don't know how to do it since CPEC is there. If China says that an attack on CPEC is an attack on them, then it will be a very big statement and will have a lot of repercussions. If US begins to hurt Pak economically, Chinese economic growth slows down quite a bit and we grow a lot, then it'll be interesting.

That's basically a military alliance with Pakistan, that's never gonna happen.

China's not going to risk a nuclear war with India for the sake of Pakistan.
 

thinkingcap81

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I wouldn't put too much faith in the opinions of a few individuals that were cherry-picked for the article. You will find an article with an alternate viewpoint as well. At the very least the govt in power is rabidly anti-China.
Yes, such articles pick individuals to substantiate the predetermined conclusions. However i believe that m point is still valid. Significant sections of India are pro-BJP, but that doesn't mean that they can take significant pain that war entails. Anyways, no point taking this discussion further.

IThat's actually what the CCP is wrestling with right now. If they go to war with India and lose, then they can kiss their unification goodbye. With their actions in Galwan, to borrow a Chinese expression, they have quite literally kicked an iron plate.

The thing is no one knows their intentions right now. Some are saying their jingoism surrounding Taiwan is to distract the world away from Ladakh, while others are saying they will deal with Taiwan first, before India. And when they deal with India, they are talking about an all-out border war across the entire LAC. And everything centers around the decision of just one man, Xi Jinping. He's like the new age Hitler, with many options to choose from. Hell, he could end up attacking Mongolia first. The guy is hellbent on creating a legacy for himself.
Some would say that they have prevented greater Indian aggression against POK. But in the long run i think that their actions will make us much more stronger than had they kept quiet. It's something similar to what Pak generals thought when they had launched Op Grand Slam - India needs to be woken up from her slumber.

I don't think that Xi will leave any worthwhile legacy in terms of conflicts.

That's basically a military alliance with Pakistan, that's never gonna happen.

China's not going to risk a nuclear war with India for the sake of Pakistan.
I suppose that China could dish out statements showing strategic ambiguity just like US does with Taiwan.
 

randomradio

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Some would say that they have prevented greater Indian aggression against POK. But in the long run i think that their actions will make us much more stronger than had they kept quiet. It's something similar to what Pak generals thought when they had launched Op Grand Slam - India needs to be woken up from her slumber.

This definitely woke up all the doves in the country. Before this there were too many squawking that China wasn't an enemy. Definitely a rude awakening. The Left's love for China is pretty much history now.

I don't think that Xi will leave any worthwhile legacy in terms of conflicts.

Whatever he wants to do can only come about peacefully. But it has to be while challenging a major power, be it India, Russia or the US.

I suppose that China could dish out statements showing strategic ambiguity just like US does with Taiwan.

Strategic ambiguity won't work with India. Because in case of a war with Pakistan, the effect is immediate. Indian troops will cross the border within 24 hours and split the country into two within a day or two. China will need weeks to mobilise, by then the war will be over. So if the Chinese want to support Pakistan, they are going to have to deploy beforehand. It's not the same with the US and Taiwan since they are only a few hours away from supporting Taiwan militarily, whereas, as long as Taiwan fights, the war could last weeks to months. Plus there's the long preparation time before it.
 

Paro

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This definitely woke up all the doves in the country. Before this there were too many squawking that China wasn't an enemy. Definitely a rude awakening. The Left's love for China is pretty much history now.



Whatever he wants to do can only come about peacefully. But it has to be while challenging a major power, be it India, Russia or the US.



Strategic ambiguity won't work with India. Because in case of a war with Pakistan, the effect is immediate. Indian troops will cross the border within 24 hours and split the country into two within a day or two. China will need weeks to mobilise, by then the war will be over. So if the Chinese want to support Pakistan, they are going to have to deploy beforehand. It's not the same with the US and Taiwan since they are only a few hours away from supporting Taiwan militarily, whereas, as long as Taiwan fights, the war could last weeks to months. Plus there's the long preparation time before it.
Why doesnt IA try slicing pok peak by peak every week? If the overwhelming capacity exists.
 
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randomradio

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Why doesnt IA try slicing pok peak by peak every week? If the overwhelming capacity exists.

Old story. We can't attack Pak yet because the country is being protected by the USA. And we are economically too weak to challenge the US yet.

If it wasn't for the US, we would have taken back PoK in 1971.
 

Arvind

The PoKeMon
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Old story. We can't attack Pak yet because the country is being protected by the USA. And we are economically too weak to challenge the US yet.

If it wasn't for the US, we would have taken back PoK in 1971.

I dont think so that its being protected by US anymore, China may be more.
 

Arvind

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Strategic ambiguity won't work with India. Because in case of a war with Pakistan, the effect is immediate. Indian troops will cross the border within 24 hours and split the country into two within a day or two. China will need weeks to mobilise, by then the war will be over. So if the Chinese want to support Pakistan, they are going to have to deploy beforehand. It's not the same with the US and Taiwan since they are only a few hours away from supporting Taiwan militarily, whereas, as long as Taiwan fights, the war could last weeks to months. Plus there's the long preparation time before it.

Wishful thinking at best to expect 2 day operation by IA and Pakistan is broken into two.

1. Leave aside certain sectors, IA can not march unhindered into Pakistan. However same loopholes are available to PA to exploit in retaliation.
2. India do not have logistic might to move double the PA resources to overwhelm them within 2-3 days
3. India can best put their bet in war of attrition, need to go beyond 15 days for PA to feel pressure.
4. Its not about capturing the Pakistan land, but to keep a hold of it for long. The moment china mobilizes, India has to further strengthen the eastern flank, no matter China aggression is real or not.

Let me tell you, its not a matter of whether China will invade Taiwan or not, its a matter of time when China feel they are fully equipped to handle all eventualities including US involvement.
 

thinkingcap81

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Because in case of a war with Pakistan, the effect is immediate. Indian troops will cross the border within 24 hours and split the country into two within a day or two. China will need weeks to mobilise, by then the war will be over. So if the Chinese want to support Pakistan, they are going to have to deploy beforehand. It's not the same with the US and Taiwan since they are only a few hours away from supporting Taiwan militarily, whereas, as long as Taiwan fights, the war could last weeks to months. Plus there's the long preparation time before it.
That's pretty optimistic, to say the least. If Taiwan has the will to fight then the fight will last for months, and even if Pak has the will to fight the war will last for 48 hours? But i'd rather not get into a useless debate over this.
 
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