Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Lolwa

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Feb 6, 2020
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One of the main goals of the Pivot to Asia is to protect Taiwan. I don't believe the US will leave Taiwan high and dry. The question is to what extent the US will actually help Taiwan. Since the Taiwanese require assured air superiority, the US could be capable of providing that support without needing to put boots on the ground. The fallout from air force and navy losses will be politically more affordable. And I don't think the US will miss such an opportunity to take out the PLAN before it becomes more powerful.

Otoh, China will have to risk losing its navy in a war with the US anytime before 2030, a setback that will take a minimum of 15 years to fix. Which is why I think their current stance on Taiwan is to push the world's focus away from Ladakh and elsewhere.
Taiwan is too important to be ditched by the U.S. The day China conquers Taiwan is the day the Americans firmly lose their global tech dominance.
 
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randomradio

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Losses in USN will pinch the Americans more that the army. Even a small turf of losing a single ship will send over 100 sailors to the bottom.

That's the case for submarines, not for ships. When a ship sinks, there's enough time for sailors to abandon it. The survival rate can be pretty high overall.

Anyway, there are not too many ships around for the casualties to skyrocket like it's the case for armies, where an entire divison can get annihilated overnight when up against a peer adversary.
 

Lolwa

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Not really. Taiwanese companies are diversifying outside Taiwan.
All the technical know-how and high tech machinery for chip manufacturing is in Taiwan. The Chinese always have majority control on Lithium mines with Taiwan takeover they will be the dominant force in Semiconductor manufacturing. Which means smart munitions that will soon surpass the Americans..
 

thinkingcap81

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Jun 2, 2019
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Such comments came previously also. It shows their mindset but it's nowhere close to a declaration of a war-like situation.

We need to sit this out and prevent further losses. This a a good opportunity to improve the quality of our arms and boost local defence industry.

Forge strong partnerships with like-minded countries and yet be financially, technologically, resource-wise independent enough so that we are not forced into a compromise because of 'influence' from partners like US --- US did tell us to back off after 27 Feb and this should not happen.
 
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thinkingcap81

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Jun 2, 2019
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Not really. Taiwanese companies are diversifying outside Taiwan.
I wonder how the eventual takeover of Taiwan will be and what will be its repurcussions. If critical requirements like dependence of chip manufacturing in Taiwan are reduced, then will the US and the world forget about Taiwan thus enabling China to take over Taiwan without firing a shot?
 

Cole_phelps

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Jun 19, 2019
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US will not do jack if China takes over Taiwan. Specially not the Biden administration. This I can guarantee. Verbal support is one thing, sending own soldiers to die for another country is completely different. If the Afganistan crisis has shown anything, it is how inept the planners are in US as well. So Taiwan either has to defend itself or be sh*t scared of consequences.

If Taiwan can be sacrificed then add Japan and South Korea into list of next to be bullied and conquered by China. Even inept, woke and pusillanimous govt of Biden won't ever allow that.


That's usual script whenever a high GOI delegation visit AP. I don't think this has anything to do with current standoff
 
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Lolwa

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Feb 6, 2020
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Delhi
If Taiwan can be sacrificed then add Japan and South Korea into list of next to be bullied and conquered by China. Even inept, woke and pusillanimous govt of Biden won't ever allow that.



That's usual script whenever a high GOI delegation visit AP. I don't think this has anything to do with current standoff
They have never made such a direct statement for as long as I remember.
 

randomradio

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I wonder how the eventual takeover of Taiwan will be and what will be its repurcussions.

It's a very weird situation, and it entirely depends on the US. If the US protects Taiwan, China won't attack Taiwan for a very long time. But if the US decides they are only going to watch, then China will most definitely invade, but will get stuck in a protracted guerilla war. At the very least, we know Taiwan is unlikely to go down without a fight since the Taiwanese military and political leadership know exactly what fate awaits them if they fall into the CCP's hands.

Xi wants to create a legacy in this third term, before he leaves office. He obviously can't challenge the Japanese over Senkaku yet, since the US's full intervention is guaranteed. China can't challenge Russia yet. So it's either Taiwan or Tawang.

If critical requirements like dependence of chip manufacturing in Taiwan are reduced, then will the US and the world forget about Taiwan thus enabling China to take over Taiwan without firing a shot?

With America's new chip policy, they could end up becoming self-sufficient in chip production, so they are unlikely to make any decisions based on Taiwan's semiconductor industry alone.
 

jetray

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Mar 15, 2018
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It's a very weird situation, and it entirely depends on the US. If the US protects Taiwan, China won't attack Taiwan for a very long time. But if the US decides they are only going to watch, then China will most definitely invade, but will get stuck in a protracted guerilla war. At the very least, we know Taiwan is unlikely to go down without a fight since the Taiwanese military and political leadership know exactly what fate awaits them if they fall into the CCP's hands.
Most probably one fine day chinese troops will land in taiwan and then announce game over. There will be some usual useless statements by western block, shed some crocodile tears and after that things will become normal.

There wont be any guerilla warfare in taiwan, ppl will move on. To add to that to fight a guerilla warfare there should be external support and for an island it will be hard to come by.

Most of us are biased due to our own motives , think taiwanese hate chinese and will fight them. But truth is somewhere in between, taiwan only wants to maintain status quo to benefit from both china & western block. What most of us miss that other than political relations , taiwan is very well connected to main land china economically & culturally. Some ppl will leave taiwan to western cntries apart from that it will simply become another hong kong play out.
 
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jetray

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With America's new chip policy, they could end up becoming self-sufficient in chip production, so they are unlikely to make any decisions based on Taiwan's semiconductor industry alone.
one of the rumors going around is that chip shortage is due to chinese hoarding the chips. Recently even US requested info from TSM on chip supply info to vendors.