LIBYA – INTERNAL STRUGGLE (Indian Interests)

Narendar Singh

NS
Professional
Jan 31, 2018
120
362
Meerut
The Libyan internal struggle refers to the ongoing conflicts in Libya, beginning with the Arab Spring protests of 2011, which led to a civil war, foreign military intervention leading to overthrow of long-serving ruler Col Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011.
The turmoil that followed Gaddafi's fall allowed Islamic State to gain a foothold in the country, taking control of the former Libyan leader's home city of Sirte. But armed groups from the city of Misrata and the central region, which are at times loyal to the government, managed to expel the fighters from the city in August 2016 - with Western backing and US air strikes.
Islamic State, which was made up of defectors from local jihadist groups and foreign fighters, does not now control any city or town but still has a presence in various desert hideouts. It is now a diminished force, though it has been behind some attacks in the capital, further undermining security.
Today Libya's myriad armed militias hold sway - nominally backing two centres of political power in the east and west with parallel institutions viz the Tripoli Administration and the Tobruk Administration.
Tripoli administration, the internationally recognised government, known as the Government of National Accord (GNA) is under the leadership of Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj,. He arrived in Tripoli in March 2016, four months after a UN-brokered deal to form a unity government, to set up his administration. Over the last three years he has worked to gain the support of the various militias and politicians, but he has little real power over the whole country or of the forces ostensibly under his control.
Tobruk administration, includes the members of the parliament elected in 2014 after disputed elections. The newly elected Members of Parliament moved to Tobruk when the old Members of Parliament refused to hand over power to newly elected members. .
The newly elected MPs moved to the port of Tobruk, 1,000km (620 miles) away, along with the old government. In 2015 some of these Members of Parliament backed the UN deal for a unity government, but the parliament has since refused to recognise it and has been blocking efforts to organise fresh elections because it wants military strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar, who leads a powerful force called the Libyan National Army (LNA), to be guaranteed a senior role in any new set-up.
The latest territorial loss has put militia leader Khalifa Haftar in a weak position, and it is the right time for the international community to bring him to the negotiating table to help end the power struggle in Libya
Haftar faced a surprise blow in Gharyan where his forces have held this territory south of Tripoli, since early April. Libya’s internationally recognised government have now managed to dislodge pro-Haftar militias from this strategically important town. Gharyan was the main forward base for the eastern-based Libya National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar, which has been eyeing control of Tripoli.
Haftar, who controls much of the east and commands the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), has been provoking an all-out military conflict in Libya. In April this year, he kicked off his offensive to capture Tripoli, the capital which hosts the internationally recognised government of Libya - the Government of National Accord.
The loss of Gharyan, if it stays under Government of National Accord control, represents a significant setback for Haftar. The latter has only one town left in the west of Libya, Tarhunah, as a launching pad for their military campaign.
The situation on the ground is still fluid, but at this point, there are two possible scenarios for what could happen next in Libya.
First, losing Gharyan lowers Haftar credibility and his backers' strategy, who hoped to achieve a quick victory and seize the Libyan capital. Capture of Tripoli by Haftar could portray him as a unifier and saviour of the country.
Haftar relies on an array of militias and tribal factions. The latter, however, were merely mercenaries and prone to changing sides. While Haftar shrewdly used this strategy in the initial phases of the offensive against UN-backed government in Tripoli, it later showed its limitations as a protracted fight was not in the interest of these guns for hire.
With the loss of Gharyan, some critics believe that Haftar’s military failure in Tripoli could lead to his political fall in the medium run.
Second, the legitimate government of Libya will likely avoid making political concessions with Haftar because he usually offers talks, shakes hands, sits at the negotiation tables whereas he remains a firm believer in the military solution.
Haftar is seen by many as the principal obstacle confronting the unity of the country. International and regional powers have a responsibility to rein him in and convince him to cooperate for peace and stability in Libya. However, now the matter goes beyond local Militias of Libya. Haftar continues to enjoy political and logistical support from Egypt, UAE, France, with funds and military equipment, including aircraft. The Europeans are attempting to close ranks against Haftar, though there is tension among major European countries about residual French and Italian support for Haftar. It is believed that such support stems from the economic benefits that can be derived from the oil-rich Eastern Libya. It is with such international backing that Haftar has dominated the eastern part of the country and ventured recently to establish a foothold in the region of Sebha.
Currently, the struggle is between the GNA — backed by Sunni Islamist forces holding Tripoli — and Haftar’s forces. Strangely, even the Russians are backing Haftar. It is alleged that Russia has deployed around 300 mercenaries to help him. Both USA and Russia have prevented a formal reference to the UNSC for a ceasefire. The GNA is getting support from Turkey and Qatar.
The conflict in Libya has basically become a proxy war for control over Libya, and its oil resources.
President Trump has spoken to Haftar and has praised his role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources. Libya’s future is bleak. Even if Haftar succeeds in capturing Tripoli and establishes an authoritarian regime, it is unlikely to stabilise the country. The struggle for power and influence in Libya will not end soon.
The renewal of fighting near Tripoli has compelled the Indian government to advise all Indian nationals to leave the country immediately. India has also withdrawn its peacekeepers from Libya, who were stationed there under the UN flag. India-Libya relations were cordial during Gaddafi’s tenure in office. India welcomed the lifting of UN sanctions on Libya, and after the fall of Gaddafi, India established ties with the successor — that is, GNA — and relations were consolidated with the regular exchange of high-level visits.
India has given priority to humanitarian assistance to help those wounded in the war, particularly with the supply of medicines, artificial limbs and prosthetics and training. Wounded Libyans have been brought to India for medical treatment. India has also provided assistance for capacity building in areas like agriculture, science and technology, IT etc.
Indian oil and construction companies have completed several projects in Libya. In the pre-war period, Indian professionals working in Libya topped 18,000 in number. Even during the war, around 2,000 Indian professionals remained in Libya, providing vital services in the medical, oil, construction and power sectors.
India as a non-permanent member of Security Council has a stake in peace in Libya. India is fully aware that there is no alternative to a negotiated solution. Libya requires stable and determined leadership, empowered by the rule of law, as well as democratic institutions adhering to inclusive policies to reverse the rapid deterioration of the country. India has also a stake in the oil companies getting back to normal and its investments start bearing fruit. Some nations may call India fence sitter but it is of little consequence. National Interests take priority that is 'Strategic Autonomy.'