What exactly is the meaning of 'soon' in India?
There are three potential reasons for the delay.
The IAF is ready for MRFA.
IAF’s acquisition of 114 fighter jets to be part of a major procurement plan
A mega 500-fighter aircraft acquisition process on the anvil for the armed forces; reaching the sanctioned 42 squadrons will take time and the immediate effort is to arrest the drawdown in strength, says Air Marshal Narmdeshwar Tiwari
A clue here:
On the delay in the process, he said they were evaluating how much of Make in India can happen, localisation and capability for them to upgrade the aircraft locally rather than depend on the foreign manufacturer, he said.
So this is the MoD's responsibility, not the IAF's.
It's possible some OEM or multiple OEMs are delaying their answers to the MoD. Perhaps they are trying to achieve certain milestones before the competition begins, MoD allows that sometimes. Perhaps Typhoon's GaN radar.
If it's not an OEM issue, then it could be AMCA. Once AMCA's engine is chosen and CDR is complete, the MoD will be in a position to determine the exact nature of help required from the MRFA winner. It's the least likely possibility though.
Lastly, it's possible that with the F-16's production coming to an end, LM wants to offer the F-35. If that's the case, then we could be looking at a lot more delays. Perhaps until the next US administration.
I feel the F-35 is the most likely scenario because the IAF has hinted towards excluding the Russians from MRFA. The Americans don't want to enter the F-35 in a competition that includes the Russians. Plus we have seen not just LM but even USAF and IsAF showing off the F-35 to the IAF, particularly the Israeli F-35I, the version that would most interest the IAF. Getting the Russians removed from MRFA would be a massive PR win for the US too.
