About Rafale, F-15, and Scorpène…
AsiaTimes, feb.18:
(…) Asia Times’ senior security correspondent
Gabriel Honrada, who
covered the Rafale fighter jet deal, isn’t sure the F-15 sale will go ahead. He explains why in this week’s Q&A.
How has France’s approach to Indo-Pacific relations changed following the establishment of the trilateral AUKUS alliance and where does Indonesia now fit into Paris’ strategic calculus?
France does not want to be left behind as an established global power after the establishment of AUKUS. They are the only European power with established interests in the Pacific, with New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, and French Polynesia being their territories in the region, with their interests focused on sovereignty, values, and diplomatic status.
As France cherishes its strategic autonomy, it is trying to build a network of defense partners independent of the US through engaging like-minded countries such as Indonesia. Indonesia’s decision to purchase Rafale jets from France establishes a tangible focal point of this defense partnership.
France and Indonesia are both wary of being drawn by the US into an aggressive confrontation against China given their strategic partnerships with the latter, and they have concerns of being reduced into US subordinate dependents.
Could France’s Rafale fighter jet deal with Indonesia cajole the US into making its pricier F-15 procurement proposal more attractive for Jakarta, which is still emerging from a pandemic-induced recession?
The US’ offer of F-15 fighters to Indonesia could be seen as a deal sweetener to scale up US-Indonesia defense relations, given Indonesia’s de facto leadership role in Southeast Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its impeccable timing right after Indonesia’s decision to get Rafale jets from France. However, Indonesia may be wary of acquiring these jets from the US, as the US imposed an arms embargo on Indonesia in 1999 due to alleged human rights abuses in Papua New Guinea, which rendered its F-16 fleet inoperable. Clearly, Indonesia does not want a repeat incident, and this may have been its main reason for sticking to France for its fighter jet requirements.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to visit Indonesia in March. I think this is part of the Biden Administration’s efforts to reassure US partners and allies after the Trump administration’s abrasive approach and the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, I expect more diplomatic and political reassurances than something concrete, possibly in the form of joint military exercises, which aim to shape Southeast Asian perceptions of the US as a reliable and committed partner as a form of insurance against China.
Indonesia is on a military modernization program spurred on by China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, with the archipelagic nation aiming to build a modern naval fleet and acquire aircraft to support that fleet. Will Jakarta also look to France to acquire submarines and warships?
As Indonesia already has a technology transfer agreement with South Korea for its Type 209 submarines, I doubt Indonesia will go for France’s Scorpene-class. Having multiple suppliers of military equipment poses potential interoperability concerns and requires multiple training and maintenance programs which may add to complexity and cost.
Also, Malaysia operates the Scorpene-class, and it has an ongoing maritime territorial dispute with Indonesia over Ambalat in the Celebes Sea, which is believed to have significant oil reserves. Indonesia and Malaysia have had naval standoffs in this disputed area. If Indonesia chooses to acquire Scorpene boats from France, then Malaysia will have first-hand knowledge on the type’s capabilities and limitations.
Indonesia’s order of 42 Rafale fighter jets, a US$8.1 billion deal confirmed on February 10 by France's defense ministry, has made Jakarta the second biggest French military procurement client in Southeast Asia after Singapore. The big-ticket purchase has also highlighted Paris’ bid to...
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