Rubio optimistic, but India not ready to sign trade deal, yet
By: Abhinandan Mishra
Last Updated: October 25, 2026 01:47:11 IST
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar meets US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in Mumbai on 20 October 2026. ANI
‘The fact that the US says the deal is close does not mean India has agreed to sign it in its present form. The outstanding concerns have to be addressed first,’ said a source aware of the discussions.
Despite repeated assurances from the United States that a bilateral trade agreement with India is close to completion, the deal is unlikely to be signed in its present form unless New Delhi’s outstanding concerns are addressed, sources aware of the matter and involved in the discussions have said.
“Look at the issue at a macro level. The US has been making claims for several months that the deal is close to being signed, but the reality is that the agreement remains stuck,” a source involved in the discussions said.
The assessment comes amid renewed optimism from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was visiting India and said that the two countries were weeks away from finalising the agreement. Rubio described the negotiations as being at an advanced stage, with a limited number of issues remaining to be resolved.
However, sources said the repeated indications from Washington that the deal was nearing completion should not be confused with an agreement that India was prepared to sign.
“Unless and until India’s concerns are addressed, the deal will not be signed in its present form. These are issues that are relevant to protecting India’s interests, and the government cannot simply overlook them to meet a timeline being indicated by the US,” a source aware of the discussions said.
According to the sources, reservations have emerged from trade organisations, agricultural interest groups and sections of the wider domestic policy establishment, including the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), over provisions of the proposed agreement. These include data localisation and other issues that sources said could have implications for India’s economic and strategic interests.
The sources said India had maintained its position despite sustained pressure from Washington over the past several months to conclude negotiations. They argued that the two sides were operating under different domestic compulsions, with the US having its own reasons for wanting an early agreement, while India was under no comparable pressure to sign immediately.
“The US has its own domestic requirements and reasons for wanting the deal concluded. India does not have the same compulsion to sign an agreement simply because Washington wants it done quickly,” another source involved in the discussions said.
The political implications of the agreement are also a consideration, the sources said. They argued that signing the deal without addressing the concerns raised by domestic stakeholders could expose the government to substantial political criticism.
“If the government signs the deal without resolving the issues that have been raised, the political cost could be significant. The government will have to explain why it accepted terms despite concerns about their implications for India’s interests,” a source said.
The negotiations have repeatedly generated expectations of an imminent breakthrough. On 1 October, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the talks were in their final phase, while cautioning that a signing was not imminent.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman subsequently said negotiations had reached a “plateau”, adding that further concessions would be “very, very difficult” for both sides.
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said on 15 October that the first phase of the trade agreement had been finalised and was undergoing legal drafting. He said India hoped to conclude and sign the agreement at the earliest possible time.
Rubio’s latest remarks have again raised expectations of an early conclusion. He has said the two sides are close to an agreement but acknowledged that differences over the precise wording and interpretation of provisions still need to be resolved.
For India, sources said, the question is not simply how quickly the agreement can be concluded, but whether its final provisions adequately protect domestic economic interests.
“The fact that the US says the deal is close does not mean India has agreed to sign it in its present form. The outstanding concerns have to be addressed first,” said a source aware of the discussions.
The sources maintained that until the substantive differences are resolved, expectations of an imminent signing should be treated with caution.
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