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Guynextdoor

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Dec 19, 2017
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Gurus, is it possible that R-77 BVRAM, primary weapon of Sukhoi, is actually a dud rocket, that may explain the fact why we engaged Pak Air Flies in dogfight rather than beyond visual range combat....

We had engaged them in beyond visual range mode might have ended up hitting them inside Pakistani territory. We have generally avoided that in this engagement.
 

Angel Eyes

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Dec 1, 2017
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Let me put it in this way. China used this missile's seeker to develop their pl-12 with the motor of their own. So it cann't be a dud. Also. motor/sustainer are much easier to get right than guidance....
Well, the Pakistani Air Flies fired AMRAAM not the PL 12...it is also possible that MKIs were not armed with R 77..
 

Hellfire

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Gurus, is it possible that R-77 BVRAM, primary weapon of Sukhoi, is actually a dud rocket, that may explain the fact why we engaged Pak Air Flies in dogfight rather than beyond visual range combat....


Yes. Quite possible,

Also possible is that the Radars of Su-30MKI are next to useless. Quite possible that Israelis sold us junk HMDS and avionics and hence our Mig-21 got shot down.

A Pakistani professional was trying to insinuate that the spate of crashes during and after the conflict (and before it too) are also acts of Pakistanis - possible since a sleeper cell is easy to place who may subvert 'maintenance' and calibrate the failure after certain hours of running of say, a mechanical part.

Also possible that there are quite a few moles in our leadership who actually are passing critical information to the other side. Indeed possible that even the highest decision making powers are penetrated with someone acting on behalf of Pakistani interests.

Further, also possible that the OFBs and DRDO has multiple sleepers and that is why we see massive failure in projects/production delays as also HAL may have deliberately subverted the overhauling process.

Quite possible that the whole decision making process, which renders any RFI in single vendor situation as closed, is also the brainchild of Pakistan, working in cahoots with those sleepers who get chosen into formulating various GSQRs and ASQRs.

Quite possible indeed.

I am not being sarcastic or trolling right now.
 
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vstol Jockey

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Sir, what would have our response, if napaki air flies manged to shoot down an MKI that day??
I had stated it already. I wud have downed some of their aircraft for sure. BUT the people who took this decision to hold fire, must have had some very clear resons for not doing so. I am past. Let the people in saddle decide the way they are going to fight the war.
 

Hellfire

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Well, the Pakistani Air Flies fired AMRAAM not the PL 12...it is also possible that MKIs were not armed with R 77..


Actually it is quite possible that Su-30 MKI were having petrol instead of our K50 and the pilot was having a case of loosies? What is your opinion?
 

_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
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So now tree shadows count as "precise and extensive" damage?



Don't you find it interesting that even the funded nationalist TV channels (e.g. Republic), which earn loads probably, can't seem to spend a teeny tiny amount on the said satellite imagery to prove their point? Why are they sticking to the PlanetLabs imagery and trying to find holes in it? What happened to the famed ISRO imagery satellites, why can't they seem to be utilized here?


And I thought only my countrymen were unique (reference: Israeli pilot). Seems like we do share more than just the color of our skins.


Interesting theory. So apparently JeM trainees timed their IED-blasts perfectly well with the IAF strikes? Because an old man sustained light injuries because of the window shards the blasts generated outside the target site.
Where did Rafael say that SPICE-2000 does not cause that kind of damage? I have seen extensive footage from Rafael of SPICE guided munitions in use which depict otherwise. Besides, we have evidence of SPICE-2000 wing(let)s debris in the craters.


If you say so. :)


Alright, didn't know that a punched hole in the tail is not a tell tale sign. I wonder what else could have caused it then. Explanations are welcome.


I don't think anyone (except the fanboys) expects/expected video feed from a satellite of the strike. All people asked for were simple before/after images. I read reports that IAF had SAR imagery of the area. ISRO also has SAR satellite(s) in the orbit. So kindly don't say that imagery doesn't exists.


IAF didn't explain ANYTHING. They didn't even claim employment of SPICE kits. It has just been the media with their sources, however it was verified because of the debris found in the crater(s).

I believe this is the image in question for the "hole" theory:
View attachment 4850

If you believe that this "Classified Google Earth Image" (whatever that means) represents that a ~5x5m target was DESTROYED by a 2000lbs LIVE munition equipped with a SPICE-2000 SOW kit...then I'm afraid I have nothing more to say, except refer you to youtube for blast videos of Mk 84 or even BLU-109 bombs. Until then, maybe this classified stuff will help you feel more at ease.


Logic has been quite unusually in favor of Pakistan lately, hasn't it? I wonder which logic would explain a ~30x30m structure hit with 4x SPICE-2000 SOWs (with a combined 8000lbs of total ordinance, of which 2000-4000lbs was explosive, depending on if it was general-purpose or penetrating)...and still remaining intact, with no signs of visible damage, besides some "holes" a retd. Col. found.


Let me guess. PA officially denies the very existence of JeM, yet it will allow foreign media inside a JeM run Madrassa...because proving India wrong is more important than saving its own face, right?


As I said, I'm not here to measure stuff. India indeed demonstrated its will to cross its self-imposed red lines. Pakistan also demonstrated its will to not sit back, even if there were no damages. As far as I'm concerned, both countries underestimated each others' responses.


I humbly excuse from taking part in such a debate, for personal reasons. I believe that this platform is more than enough for the intended purpose. Thank you.


Without getting into much of the details of the present imbroglio, I'd touch on the salient features of the current engagement.

India has crossed the Rubicon in terms of responding to the constant cross border terrorism emnating from Pakistan. I don't think there are two views on it either here or in Pakistan. What's being debated are it's efficacy. There's a school of thought (I believe in the government & among policy makers at large including a section of the populace as represented here) which gives eminence to the principal of intent. There's another school of thought ( something which I subscribe to) which holds that intent in itself isn't enough and has to be backed by capability & outcome ( outlined here by the debate we're having on the efficacy of the strike). The intent has been demonstrated. As time goes by, capabilities will be built up and outcomes visible. Pakistan will ensure that because left to itself our establishment is lazy, inept, incompetent and complacent.

The debate here had been reduced to how many casualties have we managed to inflict. Opinions vary from a few score to 250-300 or even more. Pakistan being what it is claims a few trees and a crow. Yet Pakistan felt obliged to stage an air raid the very next day to drop a few bombs without fuses - as they claim, as a retaliatory measure for what they claim was a similar exercise by the IAF which was forced to jettison their bombs on being challenged by the PAF.

There's a section here which believes the PAF originally intended to target military installations but were thwarted from doing so by the IAF. Large sections of the public opinion are also of the view that by not retaliating we chickened out. The fact that we could have taken out the PAF jets carrying out the raid ( whether they released SOM from their side of the border within the 10 km area, agreed upon by both sides as to be free from FA and being in a technical violation of the said agreement or from behind this corridor or whether as we're led to believe they've ingressed into the Indian air space by a few couple of kms to do so, is frankly in my opinion hair splitting) but failed to do so in my opinion is a blot against our name . They carried out an air strike and that's what matters. We didn't retaliate and that's how this episode will be viewed when history is written.

Pakistan built up a beautiful narrative of responding in kind to what they claim was a failed air raid by the IAF. To add embellishment to their narrative, the Wing Commander Abhinandan episode was manna from heaven. The subsequent submarine episode also confirms Pakistani bravado of building and embellishing such a narrative for it's own internal consumption.

What's missing from the Pakistan narrative, which no Pakistani Will touch on is the talk of unleashing N weapons, which going by past pronouncements by every Tom Dick & Harry of the Pakistani establishment would be imminent , in case India opted to retaliate to a major terrorist outrage in India be it in J&K or in mainland India. That myth has been busted. Forever. However for pussilanimous future administrations ( & we're full of them including the current one ) , a precedent has been set and it will be followed. Where the Modi administration erred and lost the plot was in not declaring with proof the efficacy of these strikes which in future may induce governments of the day to claim such strikes as Retaliatory measures without offering credible evidence to the same. It also follows that future pussilanimous administrations here may deliberately stage such strikes more for tokenism than for real effect. Something which suits the PA & deep state in Pakistan fine. But as of now this is a developing story. Coming as it does so close to the elections, with the opposition raising grave doubts about the entire episode and it's efficacy, Modi would be a fool not back up his statements with credible evidence.

Now, let's touch on why are successive Indian administrations pussilanimous with respect to responding to Pakistan sponsored major terrorist outrages. Sometime back the ex NSA S.S.Menon declared that in the past three decades India has been the only nation to increase its power status manifold ( it means economic clout, military clout, diplomatic clout and the much over rated soft power), ever since we undertook the liberalisation of the economy .The only nation to outdo us has been China. The results are there for all to see. Compare Pakistan's descent into chaos these past three decades to the heights India has achieved in every metric and you'd have an insight into the thrust of his comment.

Add to that the view by some sections of our establishment of the risk of hyphenation with Pakistan, viewing them as an irrelevant irritant at worst and the apathy of the political class to the casualties such terrorist outrages cause in India and you'd have the full picture or something resembling it.

Where do we go from here? There is also a view among substantial sections of the Indian establishment that in our basket of counter measures to Pakistan sponsored terrorism, we've pretty much utilised every tool except direct military options ( this too has been exercised now but not substantially nor in full measure for we've targetted the vectors not the cause of such terror viz the PA) and covert operations. You will see much more movement on this front in the days & years to come for the deep state in Pakistan will not desist in its endeavors to inflict on India death by a 1000 cuts. Which in turn means we'd have to utilize every tool in our toolkit whether we like it or not. Please also remember that Pakistan has more fault lines than we do & deeper than we have. Add to that an economy in dire straits and all neighbors with which it shares an uneasy relationship if not an outrightly inimical one.

In that respect we ought to be grateful to Pakistan which has always confused tactics for strategy. Witness the Pathankot strike or the Uri one or the one on 26/11 or even the Kargil episode and the Indian response. One aspect of it is in the way we percieve , respond & retaliate to such outrages. The other aspect lies in bolstering our own internal security apart from building up power projection to prosecute our retribution. Perimeter security in our army, naval & air Force bases are nowhere near international standards which is what such strikes demonstrated and which is why they were conceived & executed in the first place . The process of bolstering our internal security has begun and is work in progress. Does that preclude the chances of another Pakistan sponsored strike on such targets. No. But as the months and years go by the returns on such investments for Pakistan is going to be much diminished to the point of being negligible. Our economic strength ensures that while your economic weakness forecloses many such options.


In conclusion, To the Indian membership here who often tout the example of how Israel handles it's response to major terrorist outrages, please take a close look at Israel's neighborhood. They're surrounded by moth eaten states with neither the economy nor the will and certainly not the capacity to be a modern nation state in every sense of the description of a modern nation state. It's one thing for Israeli jets to take out targets in Syria or Lebanon or even Iraq or Egypt for that matter and another for India to do the same to Pakistan. The analogy is false. Witness how the Israelis are so spooked at Iranian ambitions and how they've never directly targeted Iranian assets in Iran in spite of repeated accusations of Iranian assets striking the Israeli population and assets within Israel. A more apt analogy would be the North Korean South Korean Dynamic with Pakistan fast approaching North Korean status in every metric.
 
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Shajida Khan

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Dec 27, 2017
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Actually it is quite possible that Su-30 MKI were having petrol instead of our K50 and the pilot was having a case of loosies? What is your opinion?
And it is quite possible that :
1. They are neva gonna give it up.
2. Neva gonna let you down.
3. Neva gonna run around.
4. And desert you ???? :)

Sorry could not help with this discussion.
 
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