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Parthu

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Thing is, the IAF never said SPICE was used, or any other specific system. They are media speculations, regardless of how reliable they can be. There are also reports that PGHSLD of lower weight classes were used alongside SPICE.

Either way, damage seems precise and pretty extensive as higher resolution images emerge.

Pre-Stike & Post-Strike Imagery of Madrassa Taleem al-Quran at Jabba Top, Balakot, in KPK, Pak...jpg


Someone needs to spend some money and get hands on the really high res paid service images.

That said, Pak is still not allowing international media access to the supposed madarasa. Why not allow them to immediately witness the targeted buildings if it was as they say and nothing was damaged? ;)

No access to Pakistan religious school that India says it bombed | Reuters

^^ Reuters team tried to gain entry three times, prevented by Pakistani security forces three times.

After all, allowing unbiased international media access would immensely help Pakistani standpoint and put India in a spot. Probably access will be granted after the buildings are repaired or a cosmetic touch up is carried out.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
14,983
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India
Deal allows Pakistan to use F-16s as ‘deterrence against India’ - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

WASHINGTON: The United States, while providing F-16 fighter jets to Islamabad, not only acknowledged the aircraft’s “deterrence value” to Pakistan in a future conflict with India but also noted that it could prevent a nuclear clash between the two neighbours.

Both points are specifically mentioned in a message the then US ambassador in Islamabad Anne Patterson sent to the State Department on April 24, 2008.

Also read: Foreign journalists find holes in Indian narrative on F-16 usage, Balakot strike

“An enhanced F-16 programme also has deterrence value by giving Pakistan time and space to employ a conventional, rather than nuclear, reaction in the event of a future conflict with India,” she wrote.

The quote is from a 20-paragraph communique that Ambassador Patterson sent to Washington in April 2008 and was disclosed by WikiLeaks.

The package she was referring to included 500 AIM-120-C5 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs), which India claims Pakistan used against the Indian Air Force in last week’s combats over Kashmir.

On March 18, 2009, Ambassador Patterson sent another long message to Washington, which deals with Pakistan’s requests for more F-16s and India’s objections to the proposed sale.

“If our goal is to press the Army to change strategy and redeploy forces from the Indian border, punishing the Air Force by cancelling this sale will not help us,” wrote the ambassador while responding to India’s request to cancel the sale.

“It will emphasise that we favour maintaining Indian superiority at Pakistan’s expense and feed anti-Americanism throughout the military.”

In the same message she also explained why she believed the F-16s could avert a nuclear conflict in South Asia.

“To overcome overwhelming Indian military superiority, Pakistan developed both its nuclear/missile programme and its air power. F-16 aircraft, armed with AMRAAMS, essentially buy time to delay Pakistan considering the nuclear option in a conflict with India.” she wrote.

“Given India’s overwhelming military superiority, this would only be a few days, but these days would allow critical time to mediate and prevent nuclear conflict.”


Ambassador Patterson reminded policy makers in Washington that in 2008 India already enjoyed “an almost 2-1 advantage” over Pakistan in advanced multi-purpose fighters, when New Delhi had 736 aircraft while Pakistan had 370 only.

“Pakistan’s shortfalls in training and tactics multiply India’s edge,” she added.

Ambassador Patterson noted that Pakistan was also buying/jointly producing 150 JF-17 fighters from China, but it is unclear how they will pay for them.

“India plans to acquire 126 multi-purpose fighters (F-18 or equivalent) that will give (New Delhi) significant new technologies and further expand its air superiority over Pakistan,” she wrote.

Ambassador Patterson explained the new aircraft and 500 AMRAAM missiles would give Pakistan beyond visual range capability, but Pakistan will acquire the ability to employ this capability with either the new buy or MLU aircraft.

She argued that cancelling the proposed buy would only delay the process by 18 months while successful employment of this capability by the PAF would take 2-3 years and a significant revision of doctrine and tactics.

“The Indian Air Force already routinely trains on existing beyond visual range tactics. (If) we do deny Pakistan requests for arms sales that could upset the regional balance of power.”

In a scene-setter for the former army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s Feb 19, 2009, visit to Washington, the US Embassy in Islamabad informed Washington that he would raise the issue in his meetings with US officials.

“We are responding to Pakistan Air Force requests for Close Air Support training to improve the precision of F-16s they are using in Fata,” the embassy wrote.

Published in Dawn, March 8th, 2019
 
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safriz

Well-Known member
Jan 1, 2018
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Deal allows Pakistan to use F-16s as ‘deterrence against India’ - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

WASHINGTON: The United States, while providing F-16 fighter jets to Islamabad, not only acknowledged the aircraft’s “deterrence value” to Pakistan in a future conflict with India but also noted that it could prevent a nuclear clash between the two neighbours.

Both points are specifically mentioned in a message the then US ambassador in Islamabad Anne Patterson sent to the State Department on April 24, 2008.

Also read: Foreign journalists find holes in Indian narrative on F-16 usage, Balakot strike

“An enhanced F-16 programme also has deterrence value by giving Pakistan time and space to employ a conventional, rather than nuclear, reaction in the event of a future conflict with India,” she wrote.

The quote is from a 20-paragraph communique that Ambassador Patterson sent to Washington in April 2008 and was disclosed by WikiLeaks.

The package she was referring to included 500 AIM-120-C5 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs), which India claims Pakistan used against the Indian Air Force in last week’s combats over Kashmir.

On March 18, 2009, Ambassador Patterson sent another long message to Washington, which deals with Pakistan’s requests for more F-16s and India’s objections to the proposed sale.

“If our goal is to press the Army to change strategy and redeploy forces from the Indian border, punishing the Air Force by cancelling this sale will not help us,” wrote the ambassador while responding to India’s request to cancel the sale.

“It will emphasise that we favour maintaining Indian superiority at Pakistan’s expense and feed anti-Americanism throughout the military.”

In the same message she also explained why she believed the F-16s could avert a nuclear conflict in South Asia.

“To overcome overwhelming Indian military superiority, Pakistan developed both its nuclear/missile programme and its air power. F-16 aircraft, armed with AMRAAMS, essentially buy time to delay Pakistan considering the nuclear option in a conflict with India.” she wrote.

“Given India’s overwhelming military superiority, this would only be a few days, but these days would allow critical time to mediate and prevent nuclear conflict.”

Ambassador Patterson reminded policy makers in Washington that in 2008 India already enjoyed “an almost 2-1 advantage” over Pakistan in advanced multi-purpose fighters, when New Delhi had 736 aircraft while Pakistan had 370 only.

“Pakistan’s shortfalls in training and tactics multiply India’s edge,” she added.

Ambassador Patterson noted that Pakistan was also buying/jointly producing 150 JF-17 fighters from China, but it is unclear how they will pay for them.

“India plans to acquire 126 multi-purpose fighters (F-18 or equivalent) that will give (New Delhi) significant new technologies and further expand its air superiority over Pakistan,” she wrote.

Ambassador Patterson explained the new aircraft and 500 AMRAAM missiles would give Pakistan beyond visual range capability, but Pakistan will acquire the ability to employ this capability with either the new buy or MLU aircraft.

She argued that cancelling the proposed buy would only delay the process by 18 months while successful employment of this capability by the PAF would take 2-3 years and a significant revision of doctrine and tactics.

“The Indian Air Force already routinely trains on existing beyond visual range tactics. (If) we do deny Pakistan requests for arms sales that could upset the regional balance of power.”

In a scene-setter for the former army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s Feb 19, 2009, visit to Washington, the US Embassy in Islamabad informed Washington that he would raise the issue in his meetings with US officials.

“We are responding to Pakistan Air Force requests for Close Air Support training to improve the precision of F-16s they are using in Fata,” the embassy wrote.

Published in Dawn, March 8th, 2019
That was in 2008.
Those short comings have been corrected.
Indians thought they will come do a strike, go back and nothing will happen. Then Abhinandan happened.
Then they tried land attack by moving forces to borders and that was also stopped by Pakistani forces moving to borders.
Then they tried missile attacks by mobilising Brahmos, only to see babur and raad mobilised.
So the current episodes showed that Pakistan can not only take on India but hit back.
 

Shajida Khan

Senior member
Dec 27, 2017
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1,580
Seattle
Someone needs to spend some money and get hands on the really high res paid service images.
I am waiting for GoI or someone in media to make that expense. I have a quote of about $2000-3000 from two satellite constellations: WorldView 02 and Pleiades : both having better resolution than one used by Planet Labs. It is 27th Feb one to boot.

As @Falcon rightly said, putting money in this is a waste. So, lets hope someone whose business is to make money out of it does that.
 

Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
635
1,502
Thing is, the IAF never said SPICE was used, or any other specific system. They are media speculations, regardless of how reliable they can be. There are also reports that PGHSLD of lower weight classes were used alongside SPICE.

Either way, damage seems precise and pretty extensive as higher resolution images emerge.

View attachment 4849

Someone needs to spend some money and get hands on the really high res paid service images.

That said, Pak is still not allowing international media access to the supposed madarasa. Why not allow them to immediately witness the targeted buildings if it was as they say and nothing was damaged? ;)

No access to Pakistan religious school that India says it bombed | Reuters

^^ Reuters team tried to gain entry three times, prevented by Pakistani security forces three times.

After all, allowing unbiased international media access would immensely help Pakistani standpoint and put India in a spot. Probably access will be granted after the buildings are repaired or a cosmetic touch up is carried out.

Where did trishul get those post strike fuzzy images out of interest?
 
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Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
635
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I am waiting for GoI or someone in media to make that expense. I have a quote of about $2000-3000 from two satellite constellations: WorldView 02 and Pleiades : both having better resolution than one used by Planet Labs. It is 27th Feb one to boot.

As @Falcon rightly said, putting money in this is a waste. So, lets hope someone whose business is to make money out of it does that.

Yah the reuters image from ground shows they have likely painted over (looks pretty fresh paint on main building) and patched everything up already (and likely would be tell tale up close)....hence why they are keeping reuters journalists strictly away still:

r


So any satellite images now would need really good resolution to capture it all....I say let time play out.

In mean time Pakistan keeping journalists away from the area says a lot. I am pointing this out to people in the know that matter from my end.
 
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Shajida Khan

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Dec 27, 2017
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So any satellite images now would need really good resolution to capture it all....I say let time play out.
Well, 50 cm resolution is fairly high. Highest reso is 30cm, only on WV04 or likes. That said 50 CM is far better than google maps. For a reference, Planet labs had 70 cm resolution.
 

Shajida Khan

Senior member
Dec 27, 2017
1,514
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Seattle
In mean time Pakistan keeping journalists away from the area says a lot. I am pointing this out to people in the know that matter from my end.
I have a second thought. It might have happened that Pakistan army might have killed and buried any survivors with dead inside the buildings only. Saves the siren for ambulance and keeps things hidden you know..
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
14,983
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We have witnesses and independent journalists verifying the presence of 4x craters between 100-200m away from the alleged JeM camp.

Those were apparently IEDs tested by JeM trainees. Spice does not create the kind of damage shown by those craters.

A hot pursuit by definition is done after failure to intercept the said aircraft within friendly territory. Hence the question.

It was all part of the same engagement. The 'hot pursuit' as it is called was simply because the Mig-21 continued giving chase.

F-16s crossed the border by a few Km, and one of them was shot down just a few Km across the LoC. So this didn't happen at long range. The Mig-21 crossing the LoC allowed PAF to employ BVR weapons. Had the Mig-21 stopped, I suppose nothing would have happened.

They sure did - except that not many involved a military transport helicopter that ended up with a punched hole in its tail. With all due respect for the departed souls, may they rest in peace.

@Falcon had already addressed that. There are no tell tale signs of it being shot down.

Unfortunately Pakistan claims otherwise, and has imagery to prove it. You're welcome to deny the authenticity of imagery, but it is there.


My questions are based on substantiated evidence available on the ground in the form of imagery. Most of them have also been asked by neutral, international third parties. If they make you feel uncomfortable, I'm afraid there's not much I can do.

At the time of the attack, the entire region was covered by clouds, so no optical satellite imagery exists. Anything that claims to be one is plain wrong. This has already been discussed on the forum, brought to our attention by @Shajida Khan.

And, as explained by the IAF already, all the Spice 2000 does is make a hole on the roof and then explode inside the building, but there won't be visible damage to the structure from the outside with the exception of a hole on the roof. It was followed by with Pokhran imagery of targets destroyed by Spice.

Now considering the extensive cloud cover and minimal damage, logic says the PA managed to fix those holes relatively quickly and satellites were unable to confirm that.

The real clincher is the fact that PA has still not allowed media to access a mere madrassa. Normally, if there was no damage, the media would have been allowed right in on day 1 of the strikes to prove that no damage was done. Even photographs of undamaged structures would have been released by ISPR. None exist.

The IAF says they have radar imagery to prove the strikes succeeded.

Consider this: Nothing we try to prove or disprove on the internet changes the things that have happened on the ground. Even if the strike failed, India has shown willingness to attack another N-power on its soil without any hesitation, which means this can be repeated time and time again and hence has set a precedent. Even if an F-16 was not shot down or PAF hasn't lost a pilot, India has demonstrated the capability to prevent PAF action on Indian soil, whereas the Indian strike proved India can strike Pakistan at will even when PAF was on high alert. So this is the worst case for India.

Now let's consider the worst case for Pakistan. PAF failed at stopping the IAF's attack even after being on high alert for 12 days. The strikes were highly successful and eliminated 200-300 terrorists. A reactionary attack by PAF was thwarted and an F-16 and one of its pilots was lost, in exchange for an old aircraft and the return of a hale and hearty Indian pilot. A flurry of BVR attacks from PAF's best aircraft and none from IAF with no tangible losses on the Indian side has established a massive mismatch in capability between the two forces. And if you consider proof of all this happened is available, for example, the release of radar imagery of the strikes, and radar analysis of the air combat from AWACS, like the one the Russians released after the IL-20 incident, one can imagine what would happen to the reputation of the Pak military domestically and internationally after having constantly lied every day.

There is such a huge mismatch between India's worst case and Pakistan's worst case. The PR advantage is currently on Pakistan's side. But the actual ground situation is in India's favour no matter how you look at it.
 

Nilgiri

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
635
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Well, 50 cm resolution is fairly high. Highest reso is 30cm, only on WV04 or likes. That said 50 CM is far better than google maps. For a reference, Planet labs had 70 cm resolution.

Pretty sure someone in media will buy and release these images if it can be used to prove anything either way. Let us see.

I have a second thought. It might have happened that Pakistan army might have killed and buried any survivors with dead inside the buildings only. Saves the siren for ambulance and keeps things hidden you know..

Yes, there can be many reasons...but all lead to suspect narrative from Pakistan. If everything completely missed and fell far away etc....letting tour of inside compound to all major journalists (after you have moved any "JeM wuz here" evidence etc) would be easiest low hanging fruit to win the argument against India.

If something did happen inside the buildings...there will be evidence trace for a long time...not just what you can see...but also what you smell and might stumble on to etc (and presence of obvious things covered up).... Evidence cover up scene worst enemy is a fresh set of eyes that never looked at it all before.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
14,983
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That was in 2008.
Those short comings have been corrected.
Indians thought they will come do a strike, go back and nothing will happen. Then Abhinandan happened.
Then they tried land attack by moving forces to borders and that was also stopped by Pakistani forces moving to borders.
Then they tried missile attacks by mobilising Brahmos, only to see babur and raad mobilised.
So the current episodes showed that Pakistan can not only take on India but hit back.

Look, discussing this is pointless. You claim no F-16 was shot down, we claim it was. This land attack, mobilising missiles, sub discovery etc are just claims and we have counterclaims. It will never end if we get into it.

The only thing that matters is the ground situation, which only the Indian and Pak govts completely know of, and I hope post 3610 makes that clear.
 
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randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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I am waiting for GoI or someone in media to make that expense. I have a quote of about $2000-3000 from two satellite constellations: WorldView 02 and Pleiades : both having better resolution than one used by Planet Labs. It is 27th Feb one to boot.

As @Falcon rightly said, putting money in this is a waste. So, lets hope someone whose business is to make money out of it does that.

Our rich but dumbass media should have got radar imagery from civilian providers immediately after the attack.
 
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Bharath

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@safriz

Not sure if you guys are trolling - but I want to really believe that you are here for a rational debate. In that case, I request you both - we can get on a skype/zoom session on video and discuss the Indian and Pakistan View. I can organize the session and we can discuss the topic for 30-45 min.

@randomradio
@Falcon
I volunteer to be on the debate and we can really discuss this rationally
 
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safriz

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Gazwa-e-hind, anyone? I don't remember Modi when said anything. He didn't even make a press conference regarding it. So if Modi keeps "threatening war" as you allege, will Pakistan indefinitely shutdown their airspace ?
Listen to this. Air space was closed after this, and many things are on the move.
Tomorrow if both countries go up in mushroom cloud. Remember modi.

 

Gautam

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