Drones : Discussion on effectiveness in a conventional scenario against a moderately armed enemy

Ankit Kumar

Team StratFront
Nov 30, 2017
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7,396
Bangalore
This is only to discuss offensive capabilities of drones. Not surveillance/EW/Elint operations. The thread is meant to discuss and clear our understanding.

Since the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, focus on drone warfare has increased. But I would like to discuss it's actual effectiveness against a moderately sized enemy with decent air defence capability.
 
In my opinion we may have a UAV (sized anywhere between say a searcher or a Reaper ) having a capability to fire A2G munitions of some kind. Be it bombs or A2G guided missiles. Some UAVs are also now coming with a capability to carry AAMs. Capability to have SATCOM, some kind of self protection suite. Considering everything, in my opinion it would not be possible to make a decisive dent against an opponent with any kind of medium to high altitude SAM capability as they will be taken out.

And swarming with say reaper sized drones is not exactly cost effective.

Smaller drones or loitering munitions are different story although.

Should be really be after cost prohibitive Armed drones from USA ?
 
Swam drones - yes.
Loitering kamikaze drones like Harpy - yes.
UCAVs like Reaper - no.
RP/semi-autonomous/autonomous stealth drones powered by jet engines - yes.

The first two make it happen due to numbers. Enough of them can complicate the adversary's ability to track and target every one of them. There's also the matter of cost per shot, which can make it overwhelmingly in favour of the attacker. New technologies are needed to counter such a threat.

UCAVs like the Reaper have zero chance. Literally zero. They are too slow to keep up with fighter jets and too high to operate alongside helicopters, perhaps they can work at much lower altitudes, but they are not made for such a role. They lack stealth to ensure survivability. Outside surveillance and dealing with unsophisticated enemies, they are of little use in a war with even a moderately capable air defence on the enemy's side. In fact, it's among the easiest targets to kill. The limited engine capability and payload further compound the problem.

The last one is obviously gonna be the future. Even 4th gen jets mated to stealth UCAVs can deliver a similar capability as a 5th gen jet, the pairing would actually make it more capable than a standalone 5th gen.
 
Weaponised version of something like this will be very useful to target fortified enemy bunkers. The whole system comes in a suitcase size box and can be launched vertically. It can be used as LOAL type of loitering munition



Avenger, and this specimen. I am kind of impressed. Although they will be expensive, but they will have better survival chances.
Swam drones - yes.
Loitering kamikaze drones like Harpy - yes.
UCAVs like Reaper - no.
RP/semi-autonomous/autonomous stealth drones powered by jet engines - yes.
Agreed.
 
69 million USD for 6 drones, 2 control stations and 200 munitions.

The drones themselves should atleast cost 3-5 million USD.

Assuming the lower figure of 3 million USD. It's still atleast 7 times more costly than an Akash Round.

We need extremely good layered SAM coverage and all these UCAVs of Pakistan and China will actually be useless.
Same goes for any UCAV of India. UCAVs are useless in a full blown conflict. Without a proper self defence suite. 5-10 million worth of equipment will go down just like that. Extremely good recon and survillance platforms. But not a good combat platform..