China Signs 25-Year Deal With Iran in Challenge to the U.S.

randomradio

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I believe this deserves its own thread. The title can be appropriately named after it's released, like it's the case with CPEC. We may eventually start seeing a flurry of contracts and it would be a good idea to compile it into one thread, along with all the politics surrounding it.

China and Iran signed an overarching deal aimed at charting the course of their economic, political and trade relations over the next 25 years.

“The document can elevate bilateral ties to a new strategic level,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said in a televised interview.

A draft copy of the accord that surfaced on media last year showed plans for long-term supply of Iranian crude to China as well as investment in oil, gas, petrochemical, renewables and nuclear energy infrastructure. Lured by the prospect of cheaper prices, China has already increased its imports of Iranian oil to around 1 million barrels a day, eroding U.S. leverage as it prepares to enter stalled talks with Tehran to revive a nuclear deal.


Chinese imports of Iranian crude will hit 856,000 barrels a day in March, the most in almost two years and up 129% from last month, said Kevin Wright, a Singapore-based analyst with Kpler.

In China, fuel consumption has already recovered to pre-pandemic levels. It’s continuing to grow on the back of strong factory activity and infrastructure building that left the capital, Beijing, blanketed in smog this week.

China’s imports of crude oil climbed to an average of 11.1 million barrels a day in January and February, up more than 20% from December, according to Bloomberg calculations.
 

randomradio

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What do you guys think about the Iran-China agreement? It looks like the rumours became true after all. $400B in investments in just 5 years, with the majority going into their oil industry. I believe 120B into infra and the rest into oil, followed by additional investments after the first 5 years. Bilateral trade is expected to grow to anywhere between 400B and 600B a year (based on who you listen to) within the next 10 years, I'm sure in favour of Iran considering the oil and gas exports expected to go to China.

Then there are obvious benefits to China as well. This deal will get them an assured supplier of extremely cheap oil in large quantities, which will allow them to maintain a competitive edge in global trade. Cheap energy should be able to offset the growth in domestic wages to a certain extent. And with Iran's fetish towards becoming strategically autonomous, they are likely to take good advantage of the investments, unlike Pakistan, so Iran can easily become the poster boy for China's BRI. Any success in Iran will help the Chinese bag more countries under the BRI yoke in the long run.

And all that without even considering the military angle, where Iran could end up modernising to become a regional power within a decade, with the worst case being them entering into a military alliance with China in the long run.

This is obviously going to change the game entirely in the ME and the IOR. So how is it going to affect us? What is our potential counter to this?

India obviously cannot match Chinese investment, and we are definitely going to see a significant drop in influence in Iran. The only way I see us countering this is if the US and Europe take the lead in creating a global "democracies-only" trade club for all services, goods and merchandise except food and natural resources. As the name implies, this club should provide preference to democratic countries, unless the price difference is too big. This should be able to curtail China to a significant extent.

The only good news I see is the GCC cooperating with India with competitive oil deals. They are definitely going to have to relent once Iran starts dumping a few million barrels a day into the market within a year or two.
 

vstol Jockey

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What do you guys think about the Iran-China agreement? It looks like the rumours became true after all. $400B in investments in just 5 years, with the majority going into their oil industry. I believe 120B into infra and the rest into oil, followed by additional investments after the first 5 years. Bilateral trade is expected to grow to anywhere between 400B and 600B a year (based on who you listen to) within the next 10 years, I'm sure in favour of Iran considering the oil and gas exports expected to go to China.

Then there are obvious benefits to China as well. This deal will get them an assured supplier of extremely cheap oil in large quantities, which will allow them to maintain a competitive edge in global trade. Cheap energy should be able to offset the growth in domestic wages to a certain extent. And with Iran's fetish towards becoming strategically autonomous, they are likely to take good advantage of the investments, unlike Pakistan, so Iran can easily become the poster boy for China's BRI. Any success in Iran will help the Chinese bag more countries under the BRI yoke in the long run.

And all that without even considering the military angle, where Iran could end up modernising to become a regional power within a decade, with the worst case being them entering into a military alliance with China in the long run.

This is obviously going to change the game entirely in the ME and the IOR. So how is it going to affect us? What is our potential counter to this?

India obviously cannot match Chinese investment, and we are definitely going to see a significant drop in influence in Iran. The only way I see us countering this is if the US and Europe take the lead in creating a global "democracies-only" trade club for all services, goods and merchandise except food and natural resources. As the name implies, this club should provide preference to democratic countries, unless the price difference is too big. This should be able to curtail China to a significant extent.

The only good news I see is the GCC cooperating with India with competitive oil deals. They are definitely going to have to relent once Iran starts dumping a few million barrels a day into the market within a year or two.
China is basically going to acquire these oil and gas fields in the name of investment. They will not only buy crude at much cheeper rate but will eventually own the fields as well.
 

randomradio

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China is basically going to acquire these oil and gas fields in the name of investment. They will not only buy crude at much cheeper rate but will eventually own the fields as well.

Definitely. If they are investing $280B into O&G, then that includes significant stake sales.

Based on the leaked draft last year, apparently China will get up to a 32% discount on the market price. And they also get first preference for the rights to develop all newly discovered O&G fields in Iran. Which means they can easily shut out any other country, including India, that want stakes in the fields.
 

BMD

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So basically Iran is selling its oil reserves off to stay afloat, does that really mean they're in a stronger position?
 

randomradio

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So basically Iran is selling its oil reserves off to stay afloat, does that really mean they're in a stronger position?

How long is oil going to last? The oil market will peak by 2040 with the current growth of alternate technology, especially e-vehicles. If some new breakthroughs are made in battery tech, then the oil market will peak even earlier. In China, electric cars are already about 10% of the overall car market, and we have just entered 2021.

Way more than 95% of petrol and more than 70% diesel refined in India for domestic use are meant for vehicles. And most refined petroleum products are used up for only these two fuels. 72% based on the chart.


A 100% switch to electricity would imply at least a 60% drop in the oil market. And we do not know how rapidly this drop will happen. The oil industry can't do as well as it does now in the long term riding on other byproducts.

Regardless of what Iran chooses to do, the investment will take the pressure off of them and also provide them an assured market. It's obviously better than not being able to sell anything while the eventual closing of the oil window approaches.

A more dangerous possibility is that the Iranians can become a significantly large oil exporter, enough to start rivaling other large exporters.
 

Nilgiri

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What do you guys think about the Iran-China agreement? It looks like the rumours became true after all. $400B in investments in just 5 years, with the majority going into their oil industry. I believe 120B into infra and the rest into oil, followed by additional investments after the first 5 years. Bilateral trade is expected to grow to anywhere between 400B and 600B a year (based on who you listen to) within the next 10 years, I'm sure in favour of Iran considering the oil and gas exports expected to go to China.

Then there are obvious benefits to China as well. This deal will get them an assured supplier of extremely cheap oil in large quantities, which will allow them to maintain a competitive edge in global trade. Cheap energy should be able to offset the growth in domestic wages to a certain extent. And with Iran's fetish towards becoming strategically autonomous, they are likely to take good advantage of the investments, unlike Pakistan, so Iran can easily become the poster boy for China's BRI. Any success in Iran will help the Chinese bag more countries under the BRI yoke in the long run.

And all that without even considering the military angle, where Iran could end up modernising to become a regional power within a decade, with the worst case being them entering into a military alliance with China in the long run.

This is obviously going to change the game entirely in the ME and the IOR. So how is it going to affect us? What is our potential counter to this?

India obviously cannot match Chinese investment, and we are definitely going to see a significant drop in influence in Iran. The only way I see us countering this is if the US and Europe take the lead in creating a global "democracies-only" trade club for all services, goods and merchandise except food and natural resources. As the name implies, this club should provide preference to democratic countries, unless the price difference is too big. This should be able to curtail China to a significant extent.

The only good news I see is the GCC cooperating with India with competitive oil deals. They are definitely going to have to relent once Iran starts dumping a few million barrels a day into the market within a year or two.

Nothing much to add, overall I agree.

Assuming the MOUs pan out in the scales China is promising to Iran (this is not clear for number of reasons so we have to see)....it will likely heavily involve this digital Yuan thing mostly that PRC is developing now.

Might be first large scale (cross-border) experiment on it since China produces pretty much anything Iran wants, E-Yuan allows non-USD trade without being stuck to bartering..... and it will keep China's USD stockpile dry and the USD away from the process too (given unclear sanctions going forward).

We will indeed have to broaden and deepen working partnership with US, Europe, Japan and GCC....and work with world we have. We have to have as much singular focus in growing our economy and wealth even if it involves working with China (in economic realm) too....nothing else can be trusted or guaranteed like us doing this for ourselves....and trusting only ourselves in end.
 

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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India does not have to be concerned with this deal

Our economy does not depend either on Chinese investments or Iranian oil

This is a strategic problem for GCC and USA and obviously Pakistan will feel like a used Condom , since their CPEC has failed

India's top four oil suppliers are Iraq ,US ,Nigeria and Saudi Arabia

Iranian economy is totally junk.
Because of sanctions

This deal will help them to prosper a little

By the way 400 Billion dollars in investment will produce A GDP growth of 100 Billion USD per year

Capital Output Ratio

India attracted 57 Billion in FDI and 23 Billion in FII in 2020

By the way for Indian Economy what is More.Important is Gross Domestic Capital Formation which is At 30 percent of GDP for many years now

This figure tells us the amount of our own capital that we are investing in our economy

This is around 850 billion dollars per annum , converted in Rupees

US Navy will have to put a CBG permanently in Arabian sea , to keep PLA navy in check
 
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Lolwa

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What do you guys think about the Iran-China agreement? It looks like the rumours became true after all. $400B in investments in just 5 years, with the majority going into their oil industry. I believe 120B into infra and the rest into oil, followed by additional investments after the first 5 years. Bilateral trade is expected to grow to anywhere between 400B and 600B a year (based on who you listen to) within the next 10 years, I'm sure in favour of Iran considering the oil and gas exports expected to go to China.

Then there are obvious benefits to China as well. This deal will get them an assured supplier of extremely cheap oil in large quantities, which will allow them to maintain a competitive edge in global trade. Cheap energy should be able to offset the growth in domestic wages to a certain extent. And with Iran's fetish towards becoming strategically autonomous, they are likely to take good advantage of the investments, unlike Pakistan, so Iran can easily become the poster boy for China's BRI. Any success in Iran will help the Chinese bag more countries under the BRI yoke in the long run.

And all that without even considering the military angle, where Iran could end up modernising to become a regional power within a decade, with the worst case being them entering into a military alliance with China in the long run.

This is obviously going to change the game entirely in the ME and the IOR. So how is it going to affect us? What is our potential counter to this?

India obviously cannot match Chinese investment, and we are definitely going to see a significant drop in influence in Iran. The only way I see us countering this is if the US and Europe take the lead in creating a global "democracies-only" trade club for all services, goods and merchandise except food and natural resources. As the name implies, this club should provide preference to democratic countries, unless the price difference is too big. This should be able to curtail China to a significant extent.

The only good news I see is the GCC cooperating with India with competitive oil deals. They are definitely going to have to relent once Iran starts dumping a few million barrels a day into the market within a year or two.
So a Eurasian union will be a reality
images - 2021-03-29T225453.778.jpeg
for the next cold war. This actually might be more successful than the Warsaw pact considering they will be energy sufficient as well as technologically sufficient..
Ironically Afghanistan will again become the playground for the next great game. Poor Afghans..
 

SrNair

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What do you guys think about the Iran-China agreement? It looks like the rumours became true after all. $400B in investments in just 5 years, with the majority going into their oil industry. I believe 120B into infra and the rest into oil, followed by additional investments after the first 5 years. Bilateral trade is expected to grow to anywhere between 400B and 600B a year (based on who you listen to) within the next 10 years, I'm sure in favour of Iran considering the oil and gas exports expected to go to China.

Then there are obvious benefits to China as well. This deal will get them an assured supplier of extremely cheap oil in large quantities, which will allow them to maintain a competitive edge in global trade. Cheap energy should be able to offset the growth in domestic wages to a certain extent. And with Iran's fetish towards becoming strategically autonomous, they are likely to take good advantage of the investments, unlike Pakistan, so Iran can easily become the poster boy for China's BRI. Any success in Iran will help the Chinese bag more countries under the BRI yoke in the long run.

And all that without even considering the military angle, where Iran could end up modernising to become a regional power within a decade, with the worst case being them entering into a military alliance with China in the long run.

This is obviously going to change the game entirely in the ME and the IOR. So how is it going to affect us? What is our potential counter to this?

India obviously cannot match Chinese investment, and we are definitely going to see a significant drop in influence in Iran. The only way I see us countering this is if the US and Europe take the lead in creating a global "democracies-only" trade club for all services, goods and merchandise except food and natural resources. As the name implies, this club should provide preference to democratic countries, unless the price difference is too big. This should be able to curtail China to a significant extent.

The only good news I see is the GCC cooperating with India with competitive oil deals. They are definitely going to have to relent once Iran starts dumping a few million barrels a day into the market within a year or two.
India dont have to much worry about it.
This is just an anti US alliance thing .

Unlike Pakistan Iran still keeps some discpline in their diplomacy .They wont completely slaved by the China .
Our interest is the Chabhar port where we xan access multiple markets.
And we have the opportunity to cash on the concerns this deal cause in ME and West .
Nowtl their prime target is China and all we need to do is to follow aggressive economic approach .
 

randomradio

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Might be first large scale (cross-border) experiment on it since China produces pretty much anything Iran wants, E-Yuan allows non-USD trade without being stuck to bartering..... and it will keep China's USD stockpile dry and the USD away from the process too (given unclear sanctions going forward).

Shouldn't it work the same way as a yuan-rial trade, or the rupee-ruble trade?
 
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randomradio

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India does not have to be concerned with this deal

Iran is very belligerent. It's not conducive to India if Iran becomes more powerful since even the GCC and Israel will become more aggressive and things have the potential to spiral out of control.

Also, due to Iran's proximity to Af and Pak, we need some amounts of influence in Iran, and this deal will roll back a lot of our hard work. The size of the deal is simply too big, it's the equivalent of someone investing $3T in India in a 5-year period.

Furthermore, the US will put pressure on India to take a much more harder stance on countries deeply cooperating with China, which goes against our interests.
 
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randomradio

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So a Eurasian union will be a realityView attachment 19646 for the next cold war. This actually might be more successful than the Warsaw pact considering they will be energy sufficient as well as technologically sufficient..
Ironically Afghanistan will again become the playground for the next great game. Poor Afghans..

The Warsaw Pact had energy and tech self-sufficiency. Anyway I don't think an alliance of that sort will happen in just a few years or even 10 years. All these countries are not facing the same threat and Iran is not powerful enough to help China. The Afghans were screwed the moment Pak came into existence.

India dont have to much worry about it.
This is just an anti US alliance thing .

Unlike Pakistan Iran still keeps some discpline in their diplomacy .They wont completely slaved by the China .
Our interest is the Chabhar port where we xan access multiple markets.
And we have the opportunity to cash on the concerns this deal cause in ME and West .
Nowtl their prime target is China and all we need to do is to follow aggressive economic approach .

Iran isn't Pakistan, thankfully. But this deal is very different from CPEC. CPEC was only 20% of Pak's GDP, whereas this deal is more than 100% of Iran's GDP. While China plans to double their CPEC investments, it still increases to 40% of their GDP, whereas any follow-on deal with iran after the first five years could be much bigger. The Chinese are effectively leasing Iran for 25 years. Neo-colonialism.

Of course the NSTC and Chabahar will continue to function. But the Chinese are going to set up significant roadblocks.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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Iran is very belligerent. It's not conducive to India if Iran becomes more powerful since even the GCC and Israel will become more aggressive and things have the potential to spiral out of control.

Also, due to Iran's proximity to Af and Pak, we need some amounts of influence in Iran, and this deal will roll back a lot of our hard work. The size of the deal is simply too big, it's the equivalent of someone investing $3T in India in a 5-year period.

Furthermore, the US will put pressure on India to take a much more harder stance on countries deeply cooperating with China, which goes against our interests.

Iran is Obsessed with Sunnis

Saudi And Turkey are its.enemies

And of course Israel and US

By the way Pakistan will become very jealous and try to create more problems for Iran

So China will have to keep their Pakistani slaves in control

Iran' s hatred for US which started in 1979 is the main reason for this deal

China as we know believes only in extraction of natural resources

Pakistanis are now realising that how Chinese have taken them for a ride
 

Lolwa

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The Warsaw Pact had energy and tech self-sufficiency. Anyway I don't think an alliance of that sort will happen in just a few years or even 10 years. All these countries are not facing the same threat and Iran is not powerful enough to help China. The Afghans were screwed the moment Pak came into existence.



Iran isn't Pakistan, thankfully. But this deal is very different from CPEC. CPEC was only 20% of Pak's GDP, whereas this deal is more than 100% of Iran's GDP. While China plans to double their CPEC investments, it still increases to 40% of their GDP, whereas any follow-on deal with iran after the first five years could be much bigger. The Chinese are effectively leasing Iran for 25 years. Neo-colonialism.

Of course the NSTC and Chabahar will continue to function. But the Chinese are going to set up significant roadblocks.
You are ignoring what China is attempting to do here. All these leasing is to basically secure the Eastern flank. They will most probably handle us so that they can entirely focus on the SCS. Iran and Pakistan will be their base of expanding their influence into the middle east.This alliance is far more real than you are giving them credit for. I will say by 2025 the grouping will be officially formalised into a military pact like warsaw. And Russia is definitely joining them considering the neo-cons/liberals have already retaken back control of America and won't give any breathing space to them. Afghanistan is the missing puzzle so we will either have to waste resources in securing Afghanistan or better invest in something different. Once the Americans get out it's all for Chinese taking. And both Iran and Pakistan are pretty capable in assymetric warfare. Through this deal the Chinese can not only influence pak/Iran resources which means IRGC as well as Shia militias and pak militias but also our Shia population will be radicalised considering how much influence the Iranian mullahs have on our Shia muslims. And Iran has never been in a better position since the 1970's under shah once the nuclear deal happens. Either that or the Americans invade Iran which might actually turn out to be good for us..
 

BMD

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How long is oil going to last? The oil market will peak by 2040 with the current growth of alternate technology, especially e-vehicles. If some new breakthroughs are made in battery tech, then the oil market will peak even earlier. In China, electric cars are already about 10% of the overall car market, and we have just entered 2021.

Way more than 95% of petrol and more than 70% diesel refined in India for domestic use are meant for vehicles. And most refined petroleum products are used up for only these two fuels. 72% based on the chart.


A 100% switch to electricity would imply at least a 60% drop in the oil market. And we do not know how rapidly this drop will happen. The oil industry can't do as well as it does now in the long term riding on other byproducts.

Regardless of what Iran chooses to do, the investment will take the pressure off of them and also provide them an assured market. It's obviously better than not being able to sell anything while the eventual closing of the oil window approaches.

A more dangerous possibility is that the Iranians can become a significantly large oil exporter, enough to start rivaling other large exporters.
Possibly but there's many emerging economies still using gasoline and diesel, and a growing population, it's also likely that shipping will still use diesel and there's no alternative to jet fuel, gas will also still be used in power stations (coal is being primarily replaced by gas in this sector) and for heating for the foreseeable future. There's currently no projection for oil reduction, and it is still rising by 2040:

1617096042185.png


1617096098409.png
 

randomradio

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You are ignoring what China is attempting to do here. All these leasing is to basically secure the Eastern flank. They will most probably handle us so that they can entirely focus on the SCS. Iran and Pakistan will be their base of expanding their influence into the middle east.This alliance is far more real than you are giving them credit for. I will say by 2025 the grouping will be officially formalised into a military pact like warsaw. And Russia is definitely joining them considering the neo-cons/liberals have already retaken back control of America and won't give any breathing space to them. Afghanistan is the missing puzzle so we will either have to waste resources in securing Afghanistan or better invest in something different. Once the Americans get out it's all for Chinese taking. And both Iran and Pakistan are pretty capable in assymetric warfare. Through this deal the Chinese can not only influence pak/Iran resources which means IRGC as well as Shia militias and pak militias but also our Shia population will be radicalised considering how much influence the Iranian mullahs have on our Shia muslims. And Iran has never been in a better position since the 1970's under shah once the nuclear deal happens. Either that or the Americans invade Iran which might actually turn out to be good for us..

One of the main reasons why China is engaging with Iran is because they need client states all the way into Europe. So they have one land route across Russia, and the other from Iran and Turkey. Which is why I proposed we need a democracies-only club. If Europe stops relying on China, then things will change quickly, although I don't see that happening.

Another goal is to create competitive large ports all over the IOR. So they want Gwadar and another Iranian port, possibly Chabahar, to compete with Dubai. And it is possible for these two ports to compete with Dubai as long as China is involved. There's the same plan in Thailand, including their canal plans meant to bypass Malacca, but that's a topic for a different day.

Yep, both Iran and Turkey are interfering in India.

The Americans invading Iran will be extremely bad for us. Oil prices will go through the roof. The only option I see is the democracies-only club. This should have been done in the 90s, as soon as the USSR fell, when WTO was established. The Americans are forever retarded though, too engrossed in the small picture.
 
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randomradio

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Possibly but there's many emerging economies still using gasoline and diesel, and a growing population, it's also likely that shipping will still use diesel and there's no alternative to jet fuel, gas will also still be used in power stations (coal is being primarily replaced by gas in this sector) and for heating for the foreseeable future. There's currently no projection for oil reduction, and it is still rising by 2040:

View attachment 19648

View attachment 19649

All these projections do not consider the effect of e-vehicles. So, without e-vehicles, the oil market is expected to peak in 2040.

As for e-cars, it's already expected to price below ICE cars within a few years. Once a tech breakthrough is made, it's over, 'cause e-vehicles are ridiculously cheap to maintain and operate.
 
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Nilgiri

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Shouldn't it work the same way as a yuan-rial trade, or the rupee-ruble trade?

Yah but these can be monitored (and analysed) by 3rd parties much more given way banks operate. There are also difficulties when you need govt involved to clear buffers and currency-swap from time to time etc.

With Digital Yuan, everything is issued/monitored/tracked singularly by China and at same time operate as a regular institutional currency. They will get a fair amount of soft leverage over countries that join the system internationally.
 

BMD

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All these projections do not consider the effect of e-vehicles. So, without e-vehicles, the oil market is expected to peak in 2040.

As for e-cars, it's already expected to price below ICE cars within a few years. Once a tech breakthrough is made, it's over, 'cause e-vehicles are ridiculously cheap to maintain and operate.
They also have massively inferior range and take way longer to 'refill'. There are also end of life financial and environmental costs to consider.