Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran

oilprice.com

Outage in Australia Adds to Global LNG Crunch | OilPrice.com

The temporary shutdown of the Santos-operated Barossa and Darwin LNG plants in Australia is compounding an already severe global LNG supply crunch caused by war and major infrastructure damage in the Middle East.
oilprice.com oilprice.com

Australian oil and gas producer Santos was forced on Tuesday to shut down its newly-commissioned Barossa LNG plant, temporarily shutting the Darwin LNG export plant just as the global gas markets scramble for supply with the Middle East’s LNG out of the picture.

Darwin LNG is now under “temporary shutdown”, necessary to replace equipment on the offshore production vessel at the Barossa project which feeds the export plant, a spokeswoman for Santos told the Australian Financial Review.

It was not immediately clear when production at Barossa and exports from Darwin could resume, according to AFR.

The outage occurs two months after the first LNG cargo from Barossa LNG was loaded on a vessel to Japan. This shipment marked the commercial start-up of the Barossa LNG project, which is operated by Santos and is designed to backfill the Darwin LNG plant as legacy gas supplies decline.

The outage in Australia adds to already strained global supply of LNG, which has been choked by the war in the Middle East.
 
  • Like
Reactions: YoungWolf
screambowl said:
Australia is among the top 10 producer and LNG gas exporter, positioning themselves at 7th place , they don't have shortage.
Click to expand...
The post is not about shortages. It is in line with developments in the ES as a whole across the globe that might exacerbate the energy crisis worldwide. Please ignore the post if you're sorting them on the basis of shortages.
 
Shan said:
The post is not about shortages. It is in line with developments in the ES as a whole across the globe that might exacerbate the energy crisis worldwide. Please ignore the post if you're sorting them on the basis of shortages.
Click to expand...

Many Indians and many in global south don't understand the profit coming once the situation settles. It is in trillions. Minor disruptions can be managed.
 
screambowl said:
Minor issues, basically of price rise due to extra infrastructural build up cost. Nothing as such of extreme shortage. In Europe average shortage is 15% reduction in gas storage volumes until today from start of Ukraine war. The energies supplied were secured.
Click to expand...

Keeping similar standards, adjusting for capacity and realities.. what would be your assessment of the impact on India so far, preparedness and projected future?

If you could give your assessment on the future impact on europe, us , China ( all those you mentioned), that would be valuable. Thanks
screambowl said:
Many Indians and many in global south don't understand the profit coming once the situation settles. It is in trillions. Minor disruptions can be managed.
Click to expand...

Profit from O&NG I assume? Are the prices projected to remain inflated once situation 'settles'? Or are there other profits
 
energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Why damage to Qatar's gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come

The extensive repairs required for the complex, super-chilled fuel infrastructure mean a prolonged disruption, leading to elevated gas prices and a potential return to coal for some nations.
energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com

In other words, gas is very different to oil. Recent events have shown just how vulnerable the LNG supplies from the Gulf region are. They are going to affect Asia most, as about three-quarters of Qatar's LNG ends up there - particularly China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Pakistan, as well as others.

Most of the rest ends up in Europe - Italy, Belgium, Poland and a small amount to the UK (the UK imported only about 1 per cent of its supply from Qatar last year). The majority of the UK's imports come from its own UK production in the North Sea and imports from Norway and the US.

However, LNG is a part of the global energy market and the shortfall in production will result in higher prices globally. Gas will end up with the highest bidder, while some nations will probably go back to using coal. This may especially be the case with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and a few other Asian countries that are very sensitive to high fuel prices.

Some European countries may even see coal as a cheaper option. Following the events in the Gulf, this "spark spread" (the profit margin from gas-fired electricity generation) has fallen, narrowing the gap in Europe with the "dark spread" (profit from generating power using coal).
Click to expand...

www.upstreamonline.com

QatarEnergy: LNG plants could take up to five years to repair after missile strikes

Attacks wiped out 17% the country’s LNG export capacity, which could lead to $20 billion in lost revenue annually
www.upstreamonline.com www.upstreamonline.com

The Qataris have stated that it will take years to fix the output from the Plant. It was stated that 17 percent of its production capacity was impacted.

In addition, the “extensive damage” from the missile strikes last week will cost Qatar about $20 billion per annum in lost revenue and wipe out 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, QatarEnergy said in a statement.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: YoungWolf and _Anonymous_

Depending on the energy mixture, different countries are taking different set of measures to reduce both financial and societal impact. Asian exposure to the Gulf is significantly higher in comparison to certain EU countries as well as NA. However, the financial markets worldwide will continue to get impacted due to the brewing energy crisis.

IMO - there are a certain set of exposures that are causing concern in the Financial markets in Europe and U.K.

UK government bond yields spiked (above 5%, a multi-year high) due to fears of inflation and borrowing costs from energy disruption - then dropped sharply after Trump’s post. UK interest rate expectations flipped - from expecting 2 cuts to 4 hikes in a matter of days - then reversed again after Trump’s update, highlighting extreme market sensitivity to energy and political developments. Energy dependence is now a key economic risk factor - countries like the UK and Italy, which rely heavily on imported gas, face higher borrowing costs, while Spain (despite gas reliance) is less affected due to renewables decoupling power prices from gaS.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion, YoungWolf, _Anonymous_ and 1 other person
US Central Command released footage from March of missile strikes on Iranian military equipment. It's worth noting that Iran has a large amount of decommissioned military equipment, some of which are replicas. The video shows strikes by American missiles and drones on Iranian Arash drone launchers, Mohajer-6 drones, and Shahed-136 drones. A Chengdu J-7 fighter jet, similar to the MiG-21, is also struck. A MiG-23BN fighter jet, previously used by Iraq, is also struck. Iranian Kvadrat air defense systems, Majid air defense systems, MIM-23 Hawk air defense systems, Khordad air defense systems, and ZU-23-2 air defense systems are also shown. Iranian command vehicles and radars were also hit. Iranian ships and boats were also hit; these may be older videos from a different angle. Strikes were carried out against Iranian 170-mm M1978 Koksan self-propelled guns and 203-mm M110 self-propelled guns, missile launchers and other equipment.

 
_Anonymous_ said:
Yeah , there was also no Indo Iranic split in Central Asia . F.E. Pargiter a British official who later became an Indologist having translated the Puranas reveals none of the original or later Puranas have ever spoken on immigration.

archive.org

Ancient Indian Historical Tradition : Pargiter, F. E. : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Book Source: Digital Library of India Item 2015.38311dc.contributor.author: Pargiter, F. E.dc.date.accessioned: 2015-06-25T22:02:28Zdc.date.available:...
archive.org

All of them have categorically spoken of emigration of Vedic / Indic tribes from the geographical boundaries of Aryavarta or out of Paxtani Punjab - the core area of the Vedic people .

That being Western UP , Haryana & Delhi later expanded to include NE Rajasthan , East of our Punjab later encapsulating both Punjabs & so on .

The Indo Iranic religious divide predates Zarathustra by centuries if not a millenium. As is traditional in their belief system , over a period of time devotion shifts from one diety to another.

The Indo Iranics started worshipping Indra , a shift from Varuna - Mitra ( the former was to later become Ahura Mazda ) who was the premier diety in the Vedic pantheon also characterised as an Asura or Great Lord.

The trouble started when there was a clash between these tribes where Sudas of the Bharata tribe of the super tribe Puru clashed with the Anus , Druhyus etc in Dasrajina - The Battle of The 10 Kings , some of these tribes also being part of the super tribe - the Puru , on the banks of the Parushni River which is the River Ravi precisely where the border between India & Paxtan sits today in the Punjab.

Long story short - Sudas prevailed & those other tribes were pushed out of what's now India into Paxtani Punjab & from there eventually into Afghanistan.

Since both invoked Indra who effectively it appears sided with the Bharatas , the other side repudiated the pre eminence of Indra & reverted to the old pantheon branding Indra & the Devas as demons .

This belief was much later crystallised as a religion - Zoroastrianism by Zarathustra . Read up Srikant Talageri's blog for more insights.

Of course all this is pretty much speculation but as far as intelligent penetrating insights go I've not come across anyone else who's put up a better postulate of this split within the Indo Iranics.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I wasn't familiar with his work.
A quick AI poster board:

file_00000000200071f5b63ba6e9704e9da4.png

file_000000005038722f92da40ba6be86c40.png
 
  • Like
  • Informative
Reactions: Shan, FenicromovCW, Kiduva21 and 3 others
Subgradewalker said:
what would be your assessment of the impact on India so far, preparedness and projected future?
Click to expand...

If India shifts to bio fuel and B-CNG, Dimethyl Ether Gas( can me made from Methanol) completely then no impact in future, very minor impact, this is preparedness. They can get a new bill in the government about taxation on these bio fuel products. Because Indian government earns a lot from imported crude, the middle men makes cut out of it too. Ministry of Petroleum is the only ministry which is contributing to massive earning with minimum expenditure. But this will take 2 decades.

Coming to impact on India in current situation, it is not a major impact and will not last long, hotel industries, tourism, eateries, some industries where LPG is used will be heavily impacted due to this mess, for a year the GDP growth rate could fall by 0.5%, maximum which is attributed to this particular reason if the situation in Iran continues for another 6 month, yes there is a mismanagement and miscalculations by some one on energy supplies in the government, and it got mixed with propaganda and which has resulted in a chaos and high sales of made in China and also made in India induction cook plates. Government was blind never simulated these test cases.

Although LPG ships are being allowed slowly but no sailor will risk his life to go there again.

Eight LPG carriers, 4 crude oil ships, and one liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker were among 24 Indian-flagged vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf as shipments were ⁠disrupted from the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...

Alternate route could be getting it from Aus, Nigeria, Russia and Trinidad

Subgradewalker said:
Profit from O&NG I assume? Are the prices projected to remain inflated once situation 'settles'? Or are there other profits
Click to expand...

Yes plus orders to arm companies. No the prices will fall at least in developed nations, but then they will be adding to more resources if US goes for that particular island in Iran. France has already told the refiners and oil dealers to cut the price.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion and Subgradewalker
Parthu said:
Isn't Uranium (enriched or otherwise) kept as a solid for long-term storage? Why would they keep it as a liquid? That would just make it more volatile & dangerous to store. Never heard of that practice.

Nevertheless, if there's an SOF mission to snatch & grab material, it would be because they have accurate intel on where it's stored, and in what state. Mossad's got spies everywhere in Iran.
Click to expand...

Stored as liquid so it cannot be proliferated or stolen. Transported as solid.

In fact, if stored as solid, considering the current situation, they will just turn it back to liquid to make it impossible to steal anyway.
 
  • Agree
  • Like
Reactions: Thunder and Rajput Lion
BMD said:
:ROFLMAO:

Natanz was built before 2002 at a depth of 260-330ft (80-100m).
en.wikipedia.org

Natanz Nuclear Facility - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

In 2012 Iran already had 20% enriched Uranium.

What is the purpose of 60% enriched Uranium other than a bomb? To pretend you're building a bomb so that you get bombed anyway?

What is the purpose of facilities 100m underground other than a bomb?

Those are the questions you keep avoiding.

They were building the centrifuge capacity to build a bomb quickly, whilst pretending to adhere to JCPOA.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2036393380830130179
Click to expand...

They had 60% enriched uranium in 2005 and stopped. And then they surrendered everything after the 2015 JCPOA.

So in 2018, they only had 123.9 kg or 3.67% enriched uranium. The JCPOA was successful in denuclearizing Iran.

11. Iran has continued the enrichment of UF6 at FEP.15 Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67%U-235 (para. 28).

12. Throughout the reporting period, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile has not exceeded 300 kg of UF6 enriched up to 3.67% U-235 (or the equivalent in different chemical forms) (para. 56).The quantity of 300 kg of UF6 corresponds to 202.8 kg of uranium.16

13. As of 5 November 2017, the quantity of Iran’s uranium enriched up to 3.67% U-235 was 96.7 kg,17 based on the JCPOA and decisions of the Joint Commission.18

So Iran was completely denuclearized at that point. As per the agreement, they could enrich only in Natanz, not Fordow. But after Trump quit JCPOA, the Iranians activated Fordow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmaxwell_
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom