Analysis War game: Next India-Pakistan conflict

RationalGuy said:
It didn't stop them from flying you guys uranium and other nuclear material. But in due time, we will repay the chinkies.
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50 yrs ago would be 1970s just when China was opening up talks with US after the Sino Soviet split.

Soviets had already sent feelers to the US about disarming the Chinese nukes. US didnt bite thinking China could tie down USSR.

There was no way in hell that China would try something so ballsy at that time risking pissing off both superpowers at the same time.

The anecdote might be true, but it might just be that - anecdote. Nothing real.
 
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Jaymax said:
50 yrs ago would be 1970s just when China was opening up talks with US after the Sino Soviet split.

Soviets had already sent feelers to the US about disarming the Chinese nukes. US didnt bite thinking China could tie down USSR.

There was no way in hell that China would try something so ballsy at that time risking pissing off both superpowers at the same time.

The anecdote might be true, but it might just be that - anecdote. Nothing real.
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Dude. China literally transferred kgs of weapons grade uranium and even a nuclear bomb design they had tested personally of a yield roughly 12 kilotons. The Chinese are subhuman criminals whose ultimate goal is the destruction and ruin of the Indian people along with world domination. India should always treat China as the no 2 enemy. No 1 we all know who.
 
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RationalGuy said:
Dude. China literally transferred kgs of weapons grade uranium and even a nuclear bomb design they had tested personally of a yield roughly 12 kilotons. The Chinese are subhuman criminals whose ultimate goal is the destruction and ruin of the Indian people along with world domination. India should always treat China as the no 2 enemy. No 1 we all know who.
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That was 1982. A lot had changed by then. But even then it was clandestine and not open support like giving finished reactors.

In 1982, AQ Khan secured 50 kilos of Plutonium and designs for tested bombs from China. Pak physicists in Europe had already stolen designs of centrifuges to help with enrichment. Funded by Libya (hence the Gadaffi stadium) and later the Saudis their bomb program came to maturity.
 
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safriz said:
50 years ago my dad was an engineer in Pakistani military, involved in the construction of Karakoram highway, connecting Pakistan and China.
Back then also we heard all the things you mentioned about CPEC.
Literally exactly same things.

Failure of these economic opportunities aren't only fue to india, but mainly because of our own policies and political failures.

50 years ago India was nowhere the same as now. But the failures of utilising the land link between China and Pakistan was there , I still remember.

My dad used to tell me that China wants to export nuclear power plant components to Pakistan by road , and such and such bridge needs to be widened and strengthened.
That never happened, because Pakistani rulers were too busy doing corruption. The money for widening those bridges was never released and China couldn't send those wide and heavy components to Pakistan.
So india should not take all the credit. Give some to Pakistani rulers too.
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Oh no no no. Not once I claimed that India is the reason behind Pakistan's failure. That is your own making. When grand delusions and hatred for Kafirs guide policy making, rather than welfare of own people and sound economic principles, you are ought to find only failures. That is what Pakistain found out. Pakistan focuses more on building hype and narratives while making decisions and policies rather than aiming to get actual gains.

It was ahead of India till 1990s, lush with free American money for Afghan jihad till Osama Bin Laden was found, which could have been used to develop economy, but no, what did Pakistan chose? Divert funds to send terrorists in Kashmir to bleed us by thousand cuts and maintain an unsustainable size of army to get parity with us and the rest were gobbled up by the elites. In return the same terrorists destroyed your economy.

All your failures are your own making and the Pakistani public has equal role in it by allowing the army to play outsized role in domestic politics and freely sponsor terrorism against us. Our only role was to separate Bangladesh from you, whose money was leached by western Pakistan. All credit for Pakistan's current condition goes only to Pakistan. Credit where it is due.

To elaborate my 1st para a little, you must remember the recent "moon mission" of Pakistan which sent a micro satellite (iCube-Q) to moon on Chinese LV? Rather than getting something tangible from the mission and be realistic about Pakistan's limitations (the satellite was mainly built by Chinese universities students), the whole media and politicians focused on "well India went to moon, so did we". All that satellite sent back was a water dotted photo which can even be bettered by telescopes (attaching at end).

Similarly, when Indian PM announced the manned space flight by 2022, the Pakistani technology minister was quick to announce that a Pakistani astronaut would go to space through China. No focus on doing something concrete, but all focus on building the narrative of "parity" with India. The same happened in Operation Sindoor which I don't think I need to elaborate for members here.

Oh, the grand image by iCube-Q.

10134954a5f412e.jpg
 
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In my opinion:

What they are doing which is India centric:


1. Pakistan is trying best to get western weapon systems be it second hand
2. Increased the momentum of proxy war to create hostage situations and espionage activities ( especially Industrial and military espionage)
3. Producing more SRBMs and MRBMs. MRBMs so that they can be launched from western areas of Pakistan
4. Deploying more radars to cover larger areas
5. Getting comm devices with better encryption, telecom devices to tap telecom networks and increasing their cyberwar capability
6. Approaching countries where India has very good strategic and trade relations to sabotage diplomatic relations
7. Planning such covert operations where India has no way to blame Pakistan, and there is a scope of deniability

What they will do:

1. They will launch surprize covert operation to take Indian villages as hostages before evacuation could take place to blackmail India
2. Use of special force to sabotage/neutralize Indian air defence and tele comms
3. Use of MRBM and long range cruise missiles
4. Get real time inputs from their foreign partners
5. Suspend all treaties with India to make Kashmir issue a multiparty issue to involve direct help from foreign partners

additions and corrections are welcomed.
....

No matter what Indian government must immediately evacuate border areas without any delay in case of escalation this time.
 
screambowl said:
In my opinion:

What they are doing which is India centric:


1. Pakistan is trying best to get western weapon systems be it second hand
2. Increased the momentum of proxy war to create hostage situations and espionage activities ( especially Industrial and military espionage)
3. Producing more SRBMs and MRBMs. MRBMs so that they can be launched from western areas of Pakistan
4. Deploying more radars to cover larger areas
5. Getting comm devices with better encryption, telecom devices to tap telecom networks and increasing their cyberwar capability
6. Approaching countries where India has very good strategic and trade relations to sabotage diplomatic relations
7. Planning such covert operations where India has no way to blame Pakistan, and there is a scope of deniability

What they will do:

1. They will launch surprize covert operation to take Indian villages as hostages before evacuation could take place to blackmail India
2. Use of special force to sabotage/neutralize Indian air defence and tele comms
3. Use of MRBM and long range cruise missiles
4. Get real time inputs from their foreign partners
5. Suspend all treaties with India to make Kashmir issue a multiparty issue to involve direct help from foreign partners

additions and corrections are welcomed.
....

No matter what Indian government must immediately evacuate border areas without any delay in case of escalation this time.
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If they take hostage, it's game over for them. That's the last thing they would do.
 
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Subgradewalker said:
If they take hostage, it's game over for them. That's the last thing they would do.
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Well if they already know that it's a game over for them once the escalation has already happened, then they will surely do it isn't it? This is a test case, if in case then what shall be the the reciprocating action by the Indian government, how to handle such crisis.
 
screambowl said:
Well if they already know that it's a game over for them once the escalation has already happened, then they will surely do it isn't it? This is a test case, if in case then what shall be the the reciprocating action by the Indian government, how to handle such crisis.
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It's game over for them because it will officially put them on same rank as hamas. Not only that but they will also be breaking convention of Vienna too.

As for the 'test case', govt reaction internally will be shell shocked on how can pak be so stupid. Next MEA corps will have field day. Army will do its job.
 
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Subgradewalker said:
It's game over for them because it will officially put them on same rank as hamas. Not only that but they will also be breaking convention of Vienna too.

As for the 'test case', govt reaction internally will be shell shocked on how can pak be so stupid. Next MEA corps will have field day. Army will do its job.
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Exactly. So many here are saying Pakistan will do some sort of open pre emtpive strike against India and due to uncle Sam we will just sit quiet. It seems Sindoor stopping early has caused many here to have PTSD and think we will do whatever uncle Sam says. The truth is, any such action is literally an open declaration of war and Pakistan would proceed to get such an *censored* whooping it will remember it for some time.
screambowl said:
In my opinion:

What they are doing which is India centric:


1. Pakistan is trying best to get western weapon systems be it second hand
2. Increased the momentum of proxy war to create hostage situations and espionage activities ( especially Industrial and military espionage)
3. Producing more SRBMs and MRBMs. MRBMs so that they can be launched from western areas of Pakistan
4. Deploying more radars to cover larger areas
5. Getting comm devices with better encryption, telecom devices to tap telecom networks and increasing their cyberwar capability
6. Approaching countries where India has very good strategic and trade relations to sabotage diplomatic relations
7. Planning such covert operations where India has no way to blame Pakistan, and there is a scope of deniability

What they will do:

1. They will launch surprize covert operation to take Indian villages as hostages before evacuation could take place to blackmail India
2. Use of special force to sabotage/neutralize Indian air defence and tele comms
3. Use of MRBM and long range cruise missiles
4. Get real time inputs from their foreign partners
5. Suspend all treaties with India to make Kashmir issue a multiparty issue to involve direct help from foreign partners

additions and corrections are welcomed.
....

No matter what Indian government must immediately evacuate border areas without any delay in case of escalation this time.
Click to expand...
You seriously over estimate the covert and conventional capabilities of Pakistan vis a vis India. You can practically say India will seize Chinese villages pre emptively because that is more realistic than Pakistan doing the same against us 🤣
 
Subgradewalker said:
It's game over for them because it will officially put them on same rank as hamas. Not only that but they will also be breaking convention of Vienna too.
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World never put these tucche log in the same equations as AQ after 26/11. The equation here has a Kashmir situation and India doesn't want either to make Kashmir as another Palestine, because then it becomes a different issue.
 
RationalGuy said:
You seriously over estimate the covert and conventional capabilities of Pakistan vis a vis India. You can practically say India will seize Chinese villages pre emptively because that is more realistic than Pakistan doing the same against us 🤣
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I don't overestimate, I am calling it a test case. Because they have done so in the past.

Subgradewalker said:
As for the 'test case', govt reaction internally will be shell shocked on how can pak be so stupid. Next MEA corps will have field day. Army will do its job.
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And MEA fools had to negotiate with them and release Mashood Azhar. Preventing such situation is one subject, in which government is perfect, handling such situation is a different job.
 
screambowl said:
I don't overestimate, I am calling it a test case. Because they have done so in the past.



And MEA fools had to negotiate with them and release Mashood Azhar. Preventing such situation is one subject, in which government is perfect, handling such situation is a different job.
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You do realise how absurd the case of Pakistan taking indians hostages is right? Especially in the scenario you envision. Blackmail? What kind of blackmail? Like wing commander Abhinandan lmao? And you're taking about a pre-emptive covert operation.. why the f will they do that? Even by use of proxy.. what will they achieve.

Note: MEA will have a field day in their diplomatic missions. And you don't compare potato with oranges.. kandhar hijack was not a covert operation of taking hostages from border villages and taking them back 🤦, which is what you're saying.

2nd, even then the negotiation with Taliban wasn't led by MEA, but MHA.
We have experts in IB and other police forces for such roles. Weren't you the one who said multi-alignment and Foreign policy approach was because of IAS,IPS not IFS, Thinking MEA isn't a Beauracracy? Now handling of security situation is suddenly MEAs domain? 🤦🤦.
Intelligence officers can be posted as IFS or other cadre on diplomatic missions. Doesn't make MEA into intelligence agency.
Now coming back from your wierd pov towards MEA..

If pakistan does that.. its a war. Period. And if you think they will try to "blackmail" away from public eyes.. then what kind of blackmail will it even be.

Maybe expand your test case.. give some details of what you envision the blackmail, taking hostages to look like from pak pov. Then, perhaps people here will be able to better articulate about such a scenario.

They are obviously trying to do espionage and terrorist attacks in the mainland. They've been doing it since ages. I already pointed out three challenges for the next scenario.
 
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Subgradewalker said:
You do realise how absurd the case of Pakistan taking indians hostages is right? Especially in the scenario you envision. Blackmail? What kind of blackmail? Like wing commander Abhinandan lmao? And you're taking about a pre-emptive covert operation.. why the f will they do that? Even by use of proxy.. what will they achieve.
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I said, the escalation has already happened and India has once again conducting preventive strikes in Pakistan, the retaliation will come from Pakistan, 99.99% hostage situation in Hindu/Sikh dominated region in J&K won't happen, 0.01% if it happens, and the videos start coming on internet, one side they pull an offensive and other side they pressurize India for cease fire, they have already recruited 3000 college students for their narrative building, what is the measure? Concentrate on the measure, whether it happens or not, that is not important. But what if it happens. War is something you don't fight with a book.
Subgradewalker said:
Now handling of security situation is suddenly MEAs domain
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IFS used to be NSA once upon a time. Well leave that aside.
 
Well in the event of war, or for a strategic victory without any major hussle, what can India do is, doing the similar thing what Ukraine & isarel did, large scale drone attacks in the airbases & AD site's,
Pakistan Airbases are loosely protected against drone strikes, ttp & bla already operate Drones now, the best option would be smuggle drones & modified air launched drone ammo from Afghanistan, handover to bla, target the Airbases in peshawar & Karachi and other parts of that area, this will put Pakistan forward bases on the mercy of Indian army & airforce
 
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