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[Bali78]

Whatchu talking about? Why do you think Taiwan is modernising its military so rapidly?

This is not my imagination. This is the Pentagon's.

Taiwan modernizing it's military doesn't mean that it's getting ready to be occupied by China.

BTW this kind of fear mongering I have been hearing from last 20 years !! In fact anytime it was discussed, my Taiwanese teammates were the first one to laugh on it.

 

[Lolwa]

Taiwan modernizing it's military doesn't mean that it's getting ready to be occupied by China.

BTW this kind of fear mongering I have been hearing from last 20 years !! In fact anytime it was discussed, my Taiwanese teammates were the first one to laugh on it.

I guess the present setup is much more beneficial to the PRC than actual occupying Taiwan..

 

[randomradio]

Taiwan modernizing it's military doesn't mean that it's getting ready to be occupied by China.

It's all determined by the pace of modernisation. They are in the process of changing everything they have, including the way they fight. They are not just modernising, but militarising. They are actually preparing for war.

BTW this kind of fear mongering I have been hearing from last 20 years !! In fact anytime it was discussed, my Taiwanese teammates were the first one to laugh on it.

China attacking Taiwan was never in the cards 20 years ago since they never had the capability. But now they do. Which is why the Pentagon has changed tack completely, they have become very aggressive in their statements.

Hence the CCP's ridiculous response to the Pentagon's 2020 report.

China lodges representation over Pentagon report on China's military development - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

I doubt your Taiwanese friends have anything to do with national security.

The reason why the Pentagon has become aggressive is because there's a possibility that if China invades Taiwan, the USG plans to watch from the sidelines instead of getting actively involved in the war.

Read this one.

Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept, Explained

The concept’s developer explains the asymmetric approach to Taiwan’s defense.

thediplomat.com

Things have changed a lot since you last spoke to your friends.

China Is Increasing Taiwan Airspace Incursions

According to a VOA compilation of flight data, Chinese warplanes have flown 138 of such missions since mid-September

www.voanews.com

When things change so rapidly that the Pentagon has become aggressive, overturning their four-decade-old posture, and the Taiwanese are changing their gameplan entirely, the Chinese intentions become apparent.

Regardless of whether China actually attacks Taiwan or not, the entire semiconductor industry can't operate under such a threat, hence the need to diversify out of Taiwan. Also one of the reasons why TSMC is moving some of their production to the US so that it can be scaled up when necessary.

Since it's a strategic sector, the companies in the US will expect advantages from the govt regardless of their cash reserves, never mind the fact that help is still required when trying to challenge the first movers regardless of how much money one has.

 

[Bali78]

It's all determined by the pace of modernisation. They are in the process of changing everything they have, including the way they fight. They are not just modernising, but militarising. They are actually preparing for war.



China attacking Taiwan was never in the cards 20 years ago since they never had the capability. But now they do. Which is why the Pentagon has changed tack completely, they have become very aggressive in their statements.

Hence the CCP's ridiculous response to the Pentagon's 2020 report.

China lodges representation over Pentagon report on China's military development - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

I doubt your Taiwanese friends have anything to do with national security.

Well they may not be experts in defense, but they are certainly not dumb enough to ignore when their country is apparently being taken over China !!

And of course our company CEO and board members have no clue about these Pentagon reports, hence there is no urgency of relocating manufacturing to US .

 

[_Anonymous_]

Well they may not be experts in defense, but they are certainly not dumb enough to ignore when their country is apparently being taken over China !!

And of course our company CEO and board members have no clue about these Pentagon reports, hence there is no urgency of relocating manufacturing to US .

Resident optimist is like God. How so, you ask? Like God, resident optimist can be optimistic in mysterious ways.

 

[Ginvincible]

The USG is allowing these companies to react that way because the USG cannot justify subsidies into chip manufacturing to the public without such "external" pressure.

There is palpable fear that China will invade Taiwan over the next few years and practically take over the semiconductor industry. Hence the urgency in many countries to move out of Taiwan when it comes to core electronics industries, especially the US.

It's not just that nowadays China can invade and conquer Taiwan, but also the growing influence the CCP has over Taiwan. The two have a much more inter-connected economy than most people realize & Chinese soft power is huge there. A sizeable number of Taiwanese seek closer integration with the mainland. Conquest is a last resort for the CCP, it's better to lure Taiwanese talent and gain IP via subterfuge than a big showy invasion. The end point is that many realists in the West acknowledge that Taiwan's de-facto independence has a time limit and getting critical industries out is top priority.

 

[randomradio]

Well they may not be experts in defense, but they are certainly not dumb enough to ignore when their country is apparently being taken over China !!

And of course our company CEO and board members have no clue about these Pentagon reports, hence there is no urgency of relocating manufacturing to US .

You make it sound as though it's happening right now, and not within a particular timeframe.

 

[randomradio]

It's not just that nowadays China can invade and conquer Taiwan, but also the growing influence the CCP has over Taiwan. The two have a much more inter-connected economy than most people realize & Chinese soft power is huge there. A sizeable number of Taiwanese seek closer integration with the mainland. Conquest is a last resort for the CCP, it's better to lure Taiwanese talent and gain IP via subterfuge than a big showy invasion. The end point is that many realists in the West acknowledge that Taiwan's de-facto independence has a time limit and getting critical industries out is top priority.

The issue is most people will be completely clueless until it actually happens. And the ones in the know will not speak of it until it happens because they do not want to cause panic. Otoh, Taiwan is modernising their military and changing their doctrine on war footing. So these are things only analysts pick up on, not regular civilians. The urgency their govt is showing is actually quite disturbing.

The same thing's happening with Korea, Japan and Australia as well. Even Indonesia seems to be planning on joining the party. But the Taiwanese expansion is the biggest relatively speaking.

When it comes to semiconductors, TSMC is building a small 5nm fab plant in the US by 2024, but they will likely expand on that and also bring in more advanced processes over time. Last month Samsung announced plans for bringing in a 3nm fab plant by 2023 to the US, the scale is not yet known, but it shows they are more serious than TSMC. The Americans are also very serious with their CHIPS Act. There's a pretty high risk of the US raising tariffs once they are ready, with Intel and Samsung dominating their market if TSMC doesn't up their game. Direct imports from Taiwan will definitely be on its way out. In any case this will take as long as a decade.

With all the talk of overcapacity in chip production, it appears small countries still cannot reliably supply what the world needs considering the shortage of chips in every segment. And in case the Chinese do invade Taiwan over the next 5-10 years, while the Chinese will likely be prepared on the smiconductor front, the world will not.

 

[randomradio]

I guess the present setup is much more beneficial to the PRC than actual occupying Taiwan..

It's not. Taiwan is a major ideological threat to the CCP since Taiwan is an established democracy.

If Chinese citizens see that the Taiwanese have better lives even with the same amount of wealth, the Chinese are going to begin questioning their own system. It's also why Hong Kong has been removed as an ideological threat.

CCP's main goal is to reunite without bloodshed, but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. The Taiwanese leaders understand their heads are going to be up on the chopping block regardless of whether the Chinese take over peacefully or violently.

The Chinese would rather have the present set up than an independent Taiwan, that's for sure. But they are most definitely looking at taking over.

 

[Lolwa]

It's not. Taiwan is a major ideological threat to the CCP since Taiwan is an established democracy.

If Chinese citizens see that the Taiwanese have better lives even with the same amount of wealth, the Chinese are going to begin questioning their own system. It's also why Hong Kong has been removed as an ideological threat.

CCP's main goal is to reunite without bloodshed, but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. The Taiwanese leaders understand their heads are going to be up on the chopping block regardless of whether the Chinese take over peacefully or violently.

The Chinese would rather have the present set up than an independent Taiwan, that's for sure. But they are most definitely looking at taking over.

Hong Kong was the same thing they took it over. Once Taiwan stops being a conduit to western tech and instead becomes another Hong Kong the CCP will then occupy it. This basically means there economy will become so huge that no will intervene in their economy. A 2035 case for Taiwanese occupation will be a very real possibility..

 

[randomradio]

Hong Kong was the same thing they took it over. Once Taiwan stops being a conduit to western tech and instead becomes another Hong Kong the CCP will then occupy it. This basically means there economy will become so huge that no will intervene in their economy. A 2035 case for Taiwanese occupation will be a very real possibility..

For Taiwan to go the Hong Kong way, the Chinese need to implement the same type of "one country, two systems" formula that Hong Kong had with China. But when the Chinese proposed it, naturally Taiwan rejected it.

Taiwan leader rejects China's 'one country, two systems' offer

Taiwan's president rejected on Thursday a "one country, two systems" formula that Beijing has suggested could be used to unify the island and the mainland, saying such an arrangement had set Hong Kong "on the edge of disorder".

www.reuters.com

I doubt the Chinese plan on waiting until 2035 though. The problem is Xi Jinping has become the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao and he is very interested in creating a legacy. Considering how aggressive China has become under his leadership, he may be more inclined to become even more aggressive over time.

 

[Ginvincible]

At the end of the day, all this semi-conductor flight out of Taiwan demonstrates that the US commitment to defending Taiwan's democracy is no longer certain. I doubt the US will sail another carrier through the Straights if China gets belligerent. It's gotten to the point that, short of nuclear sabre-rattling, the US and allies couldn't stop China from seizing the island (albeit with a lot of bloodshed).

All sides realize this, and are acting in accordance with that. I know the CCP has been really aggressive lately, but I still believe they are fairly pragmatic. I feel that China won't try to take Taiwan until it knows the West doesn't really have anything to lose from it's loss (i.e. semiconductors and other technologies have proliferated out of Taiwan & the PLAN is already pushing past the island chains). It will likely negotiate a deal where Taiwan becomes an autonomous zone similar to Hong Kong's status while promising immunity to Taiwanese leaders and whatnot. At that point, China really will have overwhelming military prowess in the region and the West will have further declined relatively. I'm not sure Taiwanese leaders will risk total annihilation if China makes an ultimatum.

@randomradio , @_Anonymous_ , @Lolwa

 

[Lolwa]

At the end of the day, all this semi-conductor flight out of Taiwan demonstrates that the US commitment to defending Taiwan's democracy is no longer certain. I doubt the US will sail another carrier through the Straights if China gets belligerent. It's gotten to the point that, short of nuclear sabre-rattling, the US and allies couldn't stop China from seizing the island (albeit with a lot of bloodshed).

All sides realize this, and are acting in accordance with that. I know the CCP has been really aggressive lately, but I still believe they are fairly pragmatic. I feel that China won't try to take Taiwan until it knows the West doesn't really have anything to lose from it's loss (i.e. semiconductors and other technologies have proliferated out of Taiwan & the PLAN is already pushing past the island chains). It will likely negotiate a deal where Taiwan becomes an autonomous zone similar to Hong Kong's status while promising immunity to Taiwanese leaders and whatnot. At that point, China really will have overwhelming military prowess in the region and the West will have further declined relatively. I'm not sure Taiwanese leaders will risk total annihilation if China makes an ultimatum.

@randomradio , @_Anonymous_ , @Lolwa

I think they will make it consensual and once PRC is unchallenged in the SCS they will just do an under the table deal and integrate with the Chinese economy. Same thing might happen in Singapore for all we know..

 

[randomradio]

At the end of the day, all this semi-conductor flight out of Taiwan demonstrates that the US commitment to defending Taiwan's democracy is no longer certain. I doubt the US will sail another carrier through the Straights if China gets belligerent. It's gotten to the point that, short of nuclear sabre-rattling, the US and allies couldn't stop China from seizing the island (albeit with a lot of bloodshed).

All sides realize this, and are acting in accordance with that. I know the CCP has been really aggressive lately, but I still believe they are fairly pragmatic. I feel that China won't try to take Taiwan until it knows the West doesn't really have anything to lose from it's loss (i.e. semiconductors and other technologies have proliferated out of Taiwan & the PLAN is already pushing past the island chains). It will likely negotiate a deal where Taiwan becomes an autonomous zone similar to Hong Kong's status while promising immunity to Taiwanese leaders and whatnot. At that point, China really will have overwhelming military prowess in the region and the West will have further declined relatively. I'm not sure Taiwanese leaders will risk total annihilation if China makes an ultimatum.

@randomradio , @_Anonymous_ , @Lolwa

I have a different take on that. I think the US will intervene if Taiwan shows the will and capability to defend itself.

There are two ways for the US to assist them. One would be if Taiwan declares itself independent, so the US can make Taiwan a treaty ally. The second would be for the Taiwanese to buy enough time for the US to organise a defence.

As of now Taiwan has no plans of declaring independence, so the first choice is out the window. As for the second, the Taiwanese civilian leadership, mlitary leadership, judicial leadership, reporters, lawyers and bureaucrats realise that they will be purged for sure once the Chinese take over, so there will certainly be the will to fight. But being a small country, the only thing going for them is geography since they are being denied technology due to the threat of espionage and Taiwan's own self-imposed restricitons on relations with foreign countries.

So what we will see is either Taiwan's voluntary capitulation as soon as a Chinese invasion begins or Taiwan will try to fight and lose way too soon to allow US intervention. So these are the two cases where the US is interested in protecting Taiwan but fail due to the Taiwanese themselves. And the politically vulnerable groups of Taiwanese may seek asylum elsewhere.

The other alternative is the US simply decides to let them fight on their own since they have no interest in going to war with a peer adversary. The fact is the US has never fought a war with a peer adversary, so this is definitely going to play a part in the US decision, especially since any US-China war has the potential to go nuclear quite quickly.

 

[Lolwa]

I have a different take on that. I think the US will intervene if Taiwan shows the will and capability to defend itself.

There are two ways for the US to assist them. One would be if Taiwan declares itself independent, so the US can make Taiwan a treaty ally. The second would be for the Taiwanese to buy enough time for the US to organise a defence.

As of now Taiwan has no plans of declaring independence, so the first choice is out the window. As for the second, the Taiwanese civilian leadership, mlitary leadership, judicial leadership, reporters, lawyers and bureaucrats realise that they will be purged for sure once the Chinese take over, so there will certainly be the will to fight. But being a small country, the only thing going for them is geography since they are being denied technology due to the threat of espionage and Taiwan's own self-imposed restricitons on relations with foreign countries.

So what we will see is either Taiwan's voluntary capitulation as soon as a Chinese invasion begins or Taiwan will try to fight and lose way too soon to allow US intervention. So these are the two cases where the US is interested in protecting Taiwan but fail due to the Taiwanese themselves. And the politically vulnerable group2s of Taiwanese may seek asylum elsewhere.q wine tt

The other alternative is the US simply decides to let them fight on their own since they have no interest in to war with a peer adversary. The fact is the US goingwhas never fought a war with a peer adversary, so this is definitely going to play a part in the US decision, especially since any US-China war has the potential to go nuclear quite quickly.E

Lets be clear the Taiwanese are in on it. All this stoked up drama of Chinese invasion and being a mass battle taking place is just bs projections by the west. I feel the Chinese takeover of Taiwan will go like crimea rather than a Ukraine or even Falklands..

 

[randomradio]

Lets be clear the Taiwanese are in on it. All this stoked up drama of Chinese invasion and being a mass battle taking place is just bs projections by the west. I feel the Chinese takeover of Taiwan will go like crimea rather than a Ukraine or even Falklands..

The Chinese don't want war, the Americans don't want war, the Taiwanese don't want war. So the possibility of war in normal circumstances is quite small. The problem isn't group think, the problem is if Xi wants the issue solved within his term, whether that's 2023 or 2028 or even later.

The thing is the window for a war with Taiwan is very small, 10-15 years at most. By then the Chinese will have both a resurgent Russia and a rising India on their flanks. Furthermore, the US is not prepared to fight China as well, since their fighter jets do not have the range to fight over the Pacific from Japan and carriers, all they can do is air defence. It's set to change with the arrival of both the NGADs, and that's 10 years away at the minimum, with the NGADs being China-specific. Until 2035, the US's fighter jet inventory will be at its weakest vis-a-vis China. After the NGADs come in, China's opportunity to get anything through warfare will be over.

 

[Ginvincible]

The Chinese don't want war, the Americans don't want war, the Taiwanese don't want war. So the possibility of war in normal circumstances is quite small. The problem isn't group think, the problem is if Xi wants the issue solved within his term, whether that's 2023 or 2028 or even later.

The thing is the window for a war with Taiwan is very small, 10-15 years at most. By then the Chinese will have both a resurgent Russia and a rising India on their flanks. Furthermore, the US is not prepared to fight China as well, since their fighter jets do not have the range to fight over the Pacific from Japan and carriers, all they can do is air defence. It's set to change with the arrival of both the NGADs, and that's 10 years away at the minimum, with the NGADs being China-specific. Until 2035, the US's fighter jet inventory will be at its weakest vis-a-vis China. After the NGADs come in, China's opportunity to get anything through warfare will be over.

But taking it from another point of view, a resurgent Russia is a temporary thing. They are facing a demographic and economic cliff that they will run off much sooner than the Chinese will. Also, I doubt Russia or India would go to war over Taiwan, perhaps some buildup along the border but nothing that would significantly alter the outcome of Chinese domination of the island.

As you said, nobody really wants war and China wants the island peacefully and intact. Their publicly stated goal is to regain Taiwan before their 100 year anniversary (2049) so there is a lot of time to continue building up the Chinese military advantage (which will further deter American intervention as the US strength continues to diminish wrt China) and making soft power inroads in Taiwanese society to make peaceful transfer more palatable.

I just don't have a lot of confidence that Taiwan can remain in its current state. Its existence is a nuisance for the CCP who view it as a prosperous & democratic parallel society. The CCP has stated that Taiwan declaring independence would be the one thing that would instantly trigger a war, and I'm not sure if the current set of leaders are willing to call the bluff.

 

[_Anonymous_]

At the end of the day, all this semi-conductor flight out of Taiwan demonstrates that the US commitment to defending Taiwan's democracy is no longer certain. I doubt the US will sail another carrier through the Straights if China gets belligerent. It's gotten to the point that, short of nuclear sabre-rattling, the US and allies couldn't stop China from seizing the island (albeit with a lot of bloodshed).

All sides realize this, and are acting in accordance with that. I know the CCP has been really aggressive lately, but I still believe they are fairly pragmatic. I feel that China won't try to take Taiwan until it knows the West doesn't really have anything to lose from it's loss (i.e. semiconductors and other technologies have proliferated out of Taiwan & the PLAN is already pushing past the island chains). It will likely negotiate a deal where Taiwan becomes an autonomous zone similar to Hong Kong's status while promising immunity to Taiwanese leaders and whatnot. At that point, China really will have overwhelming military prowess in the region and the West will have further declined relatively. I'm not sure Taiwanese leaders will risk total annihilation if China makes an ultimatum.

@randomradio , @_Anonymous_ , @Lolwa

Difficult to predict. Taiwan survives if the US continues to back it & if it exhibits the will to survive , the US would continue backing it. Both these elements feed off each other.

While there may have been a small section willing to take up China's offer of reunion, I believe events in the past two years w.r.t HK, the way Xi has gone after his opponents whether in the CCP or in administration, the armed forces & finally in the business community apart from reinforcing state repression on recalcitrants would surely have taken away any illusions that this section would be able to have their cake & eat it too.

I believe there exists as has always existed a very significant pro independence lobby in Taiwan. This could be further split into those who would want to overtly call for independence thus setting off Taiwan on a collision course with China while the vast silent majority who'd prefer the status quo without taking recourse to measures to provoke China.

The other angle to this triangle is the US. I believe contrary to conventional wisdom the notion that China's rise is contrary to US interests was there since the days of George W Bush. He fired the first salvo but very early on got distracted by the events of 9/11 & his own agenda for the larger ME since then.

This provided vital time for the Chinese to pursue their agenda undisturbed. Towards this end, Obama certainly played his part. I personally thought his provocation of Russia by crossing their red lines, encouragement of Turkey to meddle inside Syria & destabilization of Libya coupled with a weak pivot to East Asia while ignoring China's blatant activities in the SCS was disgraceful & all about picking the wrong enemies to fight against.

What Trump accomplished in his tenure should ideally have begun during Obama's reign. Yet none of the Pandits in the media or TT in the US will speak of it.

The present incumbent won't go back to Obama's era of appeasement by looking the other way or indulge in tokenisms like the pivot for the world has simply changed a lot since Obama first took office though his instincts would be to balance out US interests by taking the path of least confrontation. Though it's early days, there are early indications Biden would pussy foot around China .

And there in lies the dilemma. The US knows it's not going to be business as usual with China, it also knows that the deeper the engagement in the economic sphere with the Chinese the more it'd tie it's own hands at confronting them. At the same time, having been deeply invested in China, it's loathe to take decisions resulting in economic pain in the short to medium term when it comes to economically Disengaging with China more so today when not only the US bit the world Economy has hit rock bottom.

In the end it boils down to a question of will. The diagnosis has been made long ago & it isn't encouraging to say the least. Is there the will to do what's needed is what the US ought to ask itself. Trump , for all his faults had both - the will & gumption. I can't say that for Biden or his administration & there in lies the dilemma for Taiwan , the whole of East, SE Asia as well as India in spite of all the treaties & other security arrangements in place or to be brought about.

China, in particular Xi's China had been very focussed & clear at what it desires & hasn't been shy of putting it across although they haven't tom tommed it. I personally don't think China is going to wait till 2049 to seek reunification with Taiwan or that they'd be too bothered about using it's might to achieve it. The more the US withdraws the more the tacit encouragement it draws to prosecute it's agenda. This could well happen before this decade is out.

 

[randomradio]

But taking it from another point of view, a resurgent Russia is a temporary thing. They are facing a demographic and economic cliff that they will run off much sooner than the Chinese will. Also, I doubt Russia or India would go to war over Taiwan, perhaps some buildup along the border but nothing that would significantly alter the outcome of Chinese domination of the island.

The Russians are in a lull, once they become resurgent they will become a major threat. It's not a temporary thing. Their population may be declining, but they are getting richer, which is the main point. With technology progressing rapidly, manual labour is going to be a thing of the past, so the quality of the population will become more important than quantity. Anyway, neither India nor Russia will assist Taiwan, but that's not the point either. The point is China will get two large and powerful neighbours and that will create new problems for China. So they will want to deal with the Taiwan issue before there's a new monkey on their back.

As you said, nobody really wants war and China wants the island peacefully and intact. Their publicly stated goal is to regain Taiwan before their 100 year anniversary (2049) so there is a lot of time to continue building up the Chinese military advantage (which will further deter American intervention as the US strength continues to diminish wrt China) and making soft power inroads in Taiwanese society to make peaceful transfer more palatable.

I just don't have a lot of confidence that Taiwan can remain in its current state. Its existence is a nuisance for the CCP who view it as a prosperous & democratic parallel society. The CCP has stated that Taiwan declaring independence would be the one thing that would instantly trigger a war, and I'm not sure if the current set of leaders are willing to call the bluff.

2049 is far too late. There will be far too many rich countries around by then for them to get involved in a local war. It's the same situation as Russia and India, next they will have Vietnam and Indonesia as new major threats to deal with. 2035 is the most they can push in order to get things done while maintaining a military advantage over all their neighbours. Beyond 2035, the military gap will start reducing.

 

[jetray]

This shortage is temporary and I didn't even realize the shortage till I read the news. Last year dozens of our chips went to TSMC and none of our programs were significantly impacted. This is more noise than actual substance.

Amazon or Microsoft do not build enough chips to justify investment in fabs. Apple can certainly justify due to their huge number, but why would they focus on something which is not their core competence ? It's far cheaper and easier to get it done by TSMC.

Shortage has reached epic proportions, if you are in market to buy a cpu or gpu you would know. Its worse than DRAM shortage that took place previously.

Amazon has started designing its own chip for datacenter , there was rumor even MS would do the same.

Yes you are right, their core competency or business is not building chips. I think if other companies dont step in TSMC will make a killing.