The S-400 is Air Force’s answer to depleting fighter strength. It’s time to seal the deal

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The S-400 is Air Force’s answer to depleting fighter strength. It’s time to seal the deal
MANU PUBBY 24 March, 2018

1280px-S-400_Triumf-35-696x449.jpg
S-400 air defence system | Commons

Air defence system will be a high priority on minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Russia visit; delay in finalising the deal may cost India dear.

The Russian S-400 missile system is the Indian Air Force’s answer to its depleting fighter strength. The air defence system, according to the government’s understanding, has the capability of grounding the entire Pakistani Air Force, given that it can take down targets at a range of up to 400 km, covering all major air bases across the border.

Over the next five to ten years, the Air Force’s strength will dip further as older generation combat aircraft retire. And the time to seal the deal for the S-400 is now, with Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Moscow visit next month likely to give it an impetus.

The system has already been tested and an Indian team that oversaw summer field trials in Russia in 2017 gave it a thumbs up. Delays in the taking the final step – a problem that has hit most Indian defence deals – can result in the S-400 opportunity slipping away for the next several years.

The background
In late 2015, a rare exercise was undertaken within the defence ministry — an exercise so different that in the beginning, the Air Force found it difficult to find its way through the unique request placed before it.

The French Rafale jet deal had just been finalised – for a mere 36 aircraft as against the requirement of 126 – with the realisation that fighter jet strength would dip considerably as older generation MiG aircraft retired over the next decade.

On the other hand, India had a game changer on offer – the S-400, latest in a series of Russian air defence systems that, according to the understanding in South Block, had the capability to ground the Pakistani Air Force entirely.

The problem was that the S-400, with its price tag of Rs 39,500 crore for the five regiments that India required, was simply unaffordable, given clear signs that the defence budget would not see any significant rise in the foreseeable future.

The way out was the unique exercise — ordered by then defence minister Manohar Parrikar — to review the entire air defence plans of the Air Force, from acquisitions to deployment plans and tactics. The detailed exercise, overseen by Parrikar himself, involved probing discussions into what kind of air defence missile units would be needed in the next 15 years.

Cost saver
The review concluded two things – one, that the Russian S-400 was the cheapest air defence system in the world, when compared to global products in terms of cost per square kilometre covered. And two, that the acquisition of the S-400 would actually end up saving Rs 49,300 crore in the 2012-2027 planning period, because with its extraordinary range and capability to target stealth aircraft, India would no longer need a bulk of the 100-plus each Medium and Short Range missile systems (mostly of Israeli origin) that had been planned for induction.

The recommendation approved by the high powered Defence Acquisition Council was to move for the immediate purchase of the S-400, even waiving the stringent offsets clause, given the unique technology the system brought in. An inter-governmental agreement was signed in 2016.

Pushing deadlines
While the system has been tested and approved, delays in sealing the final cost negotiations can push back deliveries of the S-400, leaving gaps in defences, given the retiring MiG series of aircraft. China is getting deliveries of its first S-400 firing units, and Russian forces have already deployed them in Syria.

Other nations in talks include Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Morocco. If India has decided that S-400 is the cutting edge system it needs to maintain a conventional edge, the time to act is now. Delays may end up tying down the production line to possibly 2025, a gap too long to leave for shoring up air defences on both the eastern and western borders.

Original Link: The S-400 is Air Force’s answer to depleting fighter strength. It’s time to seal the deal
 
The S-400 is Air Force’s answer to depleting fighter strength. It’s time to seal the deal
MANU PUBBY 24 March, 2018

1280px-S-400_Triumf-35-696x449.jpg
S-400 air defence system | Commons

Air defence system will be a high priority on minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Russia visit; delay in finalising the deal may cost India dear.

The Russian S-400 missile system is the Indian Air Force’s answer to its depleting fighter strength. The air defence system, according to the government’s understanding, has the capability of grounding the entire Pakistani Air Force, given that it can take down targets at a range of up to 400 km, covering all major air bases across the border.

Over the next five to ten years, the Air Force’s strength will dip further as older generation combat aircraft retire. And the time to seal the deal for the S-400 is now, with Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Moscow visit next month likely to give it an impetus.

The system has already been tested and an Indian team that oversaw summer field trials in Russia in 2017 gave it a thumbs up. Delays in the taking the final step – a problem that has hit most Indian defence deals – can result in the S-400 opportunity slipping away for the next several years.

The background
In late 2015, a rare exercise was undertaken within the defence ministry — an exercise so different that in the beginning, the Air Force found it difficult to find its way through the unique request placed before it.

The French Rafale jet deal had just been finalised – for a mere 36 aircraft as against the requirement of 126 – with the realisation that fighter jet strength would dip considerably as older generation MiG aircraft retired over the next decade.

On the other hand, India had a game changer on offer – the S-400, latest in a series of Russian air defence systems that, according to the understanding in South Block, had the capability to ground the Pakistani Air Force entirely.

The problem was that the S-400, with its price tag of Rs 39,500 crore for the five regiments that India required, was simply unaffordable, given clear signs that the defence budget would not see any significant rise in the foreseeable future.

The way out was the unique exercise — ordered by then defence minister Manohar Parrikar — to review the entire air defence plans of the Air Force, from acquisitions to deployment plans and tactics. The detailed exercise, overseen by Parrikar himself, involved probing discussions into what kind of air defence missile units would be needed in the next 15 years.

Cost saver
The review concluded two things – one, that the Russian S-400 was the cheapest air defence system in the world, when compared to global products in terms of cost per square kilometre covered. And two, that the acquisition of the S-400 would actually end up saving Rs 49,300 crore in the 2012-2027 planning period, because with its extraordinary range and capability to target stealth aircraft, India would no longer need a bulk of the 100-plus each Medium and Short Range missile systems (mostly of Israeli origin) that had been planned for induction.

The recommendation approved by the high powered Defence Acquisition Council was to move for the immediate purchase of the S-400, even waiving the stringent offsets clause, given the unique technology the system brought in. An inter-governmental agreement was signed in 2016.

Pushing deadlines
While the system has been tested and approved, delays in sealing the final cost negotiations can push back deliveries of the S-400, leaving gaps in defences, given the retiring MiG series of aircraft. China is getting deliveries of its first S-400 firing units, and Russian forces have already deployed them in Syria.

Other nations in talks include Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Morocco. If India has decided that S-400 is the cutting edge system it needs to maintain a conventional edge, the time to act is now. Delays may end up tying down the production line to possibly 2025, a gap too long to leave for shoring up air defences on both the eastern and western borders.

Original Link: The S-400 is Air Force’s answer to depleting fighter strength. It’s time to seal the deal


The main problem is that this deal is too little and too late.

As China is inducting S-400s this year, India is still negotiating and would be waiting in line behind Turkey, Saudis, Qatar etc. to induct these systems as and when India closes this deal. India should have been the first customer with the history of Indo-Russian relations but Modi screwed it (intentional?)

Also, India should have gone for at least 15 instead of just 5 units.

So the coverage would be like this

1521911489588.png


instead of something like this

1521911366938.png
 
The main problem is that this deal is too little and too late.

As China is inducting S-400s this year, India is still negotiating and would be waiting in line behind Turkey, Saudis, Qatar etc. to induct these systems as and when India closes this deal. India should have been the first customer with the history of Indo-Russian relations but Modi screwed it (intentional?)

Also, India should have gone for at least 15 instead of just 5 units.

So the coverage would be like this

View attachment 2165

instead of something like this

View attachment 2164

The coverage we will get is plenty. We have our own home made XRSAM coming up.
 
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The coverage we will get is plenty. We have our own home made XRSAM coming up.

You are an optimist while I am a pessimist.

1) XRSAM is still on paper. Development trails themselves are not expected at least until 2020 (best case scenario).

2) XRSAM is expected to have a range of 250KM to plug the gap between MR-SAM/Barak-8 (70-90 km) and S-400 (400 km)

S-400s deal should have been signed by India in 2015 instead of 2018.
 
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The main problem is that this deal is too little and too late.

As China is inducting S-400s this year, India is still negotiating and would be waiting in line behind Turkey, Saudis, Qatar etc. to induct these systems as and when India closes this deal. India should have been the first customer with the history of Indo-Russian relations but Modi screwed it (intentional?)

Also, India should have gone for at least 15 instead of just 5 units.

So the coverage would be like this

View attachment 2165

instead of something like this

View attachment 2164
You have reposted what I had sent to Parrikar. I had created this umbrella.
 
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You are an optimist while I am a pessimist.

1) XRSAM is still on paper. Development trails themselves are not expected at least until 2020 (best case scenario).

2) XRSAM is expected to have a range of 250KM to plug the gap between MR-SAM/Barak-8 (70-90 km) and S-400 (400 km)

You are speculating on too many things. We don't know enough about XRSAM except that they want to test it in 2020. If we sign the S400 deal this year, we will get the first battery only in 2020 and deliveries may take 3 years at the minimum, perhaps even 5 years at 1 system per year. So the end of the S400 production deal will mean the beginning of the procurement of the XRSAM. It fits. Even if the XRSAM is delayed by 2 years, it will still be fine.

MRSAM will have a range of about 150Km.

S-400s deal should have been signed by India in 2015 instead of 2018.

We should have signed MMRCA in 2015 also, but real life is not dreams and wishes.

The S400 itself was thought of in 2015. 2018 is the best case scenario.
 
You have reposted what I had sent to Parrikar. I had created this umbrella.

Then more proof that BJP is a anti-national party masquerading as nationalists.

We don't need S400 for the south and central regions. At that range, the SAM is useless. We need Phase II BMD for the South in particular.

Personally, I think most of the S400s will be centered around Delhi and Mumbai, 2 systems each. 1 each in Delhi and Mumbai, and 1 each in Punjab and Gujarat.

And 1 system will likely protect any one of IAF's strategic bases.
 
You are speculating on too many things. We don't know enough about XRSAM except that they want to test it in 2020. If we sign the S400 deal this year, we will get the first battery only in 2020 and deliveries may take 3 years at the minimum, perhaps even 5 years at 1 system per year. So the end of the S400 production deal will mean the beginning of the procurement of the XRSAM. It fits. Even if the XRSAM is delayed by 2 years, it will still be fine.

MRSAM will have a range of about 150Km.

Indian programs have always relied on foreign JVs to kick start the indigenous programs. There is a reason why AMCA is stuck as we do not have any MII deals for Rafale and FGFA programs yet.


We should have signed MMRCA in 2015 also, but real life is not dreams and wishes.

The S400 itself was thought of in 2015. 2018 is the best case scenario.

China signed the deal for S-400s in Nov-2014 and has started receiving them from Jan-2018.

Russia pitched S-400 sale to India during DefExpo 2012 (May-2012) even as it was fulfilling its internal demand.

China became the first customer of S-400 only because India could not close the deal.

It took India 6 years to close S-400 deal with Russia (assuming it would be signed next month).
 
We don't need S400 for the south and central regions. At that range, the SAM is useless. We need Phase II BMD for the South in particular.

Personally, I think most of the S400s will be centered around Delhi and Mumbai, 2 systems each. 1 each in Delhci and Mumbai, and 1 each in Punjab and Gujarat.

And 1 system will likely protect any one of IAF's strategic bases.

You are assuming that India would not be attacked via the seas. That would be a sure recipe for disaster.
 
Indian programs have always relied on foreign JVs to kick start the indigenous programs. There is a reason why AMCA is stuck as we do not have any MII deals for Rafale and FGFA programs yet.

AMCA is awaiting the successful conclusion of the LCA program.

China signed the deal for S-400s in Nov-2014 and has started receiving them from Jan-2018.

Russia pitched S-400 sale to India during DefExpo 2012 (May-2012) even as it was fulfilling its internal demand.

China became the first customer of S-400 only because India could not close the deal.

It took India 6 years to close S-400 deal with Russia (assuming it would be signed next month).

Russia pitching and we starting the process are two different aspects. Our process began in 2015.

You can't compare our program to China's because they are much richer than we are.
 
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You are assuming that India would not be attacked via the seas. That would be a sure recipe for disaster.

What we really need are coastal fighters and ships equipped with long range SAMs. Our defence depends on our ability to defeat the opponent before they reach within striking distance of the mainland.

Or you can say, we will need the S-500 at the minimum. The S-400 is inadequate for the defence of the peninsula in case the enemy is so strong that they can defeat our Eastern or Western Fleets. If not the S-500, our main long range SAMs in the region will actually be the Phase II BMD.

The bigger threat to the region would be low flying aircraft and cruise missiles, so Barak is a much better option. The Barak alongside QRSAMs can provide better defence against such sneaky tactics than the S400 can.
 
Russia pitching and we starting the process are two different aspects. Our process began in 2015.

You can't compare our program to China's because they are much richer than we are.

That is the issue that I was highlighting. India was sitting on the offer from 2012 and did nothing until China close the deal in Nov-2014 ahead of India. In spite of the pressure that started to build on GoI, it still took 3.5 years for GoI to close the deal. That is a pathetic performance. GoI cannot hide behind the excuse that there was no money. All they needed was some money to make the advance down payment as the systems would have only been inducted in 2018/2019 right after the deliveries to China have been completed.

What we really need are coastal fighters and ships equipped with long range SAMs. Our defence depends on our ability to defeat the opponent before they reach within striking distance of the mainland.

Or you can say, we will need the S-500 at the minimum. The S-400 is inadequate for the defence of the peninsula in case the enemy is so strong that they can defeat our Eastern or Western Fleets. If not the S-500, our main long range SAMs in the region will actually be the Phase II BMD.

The bigger threat to the region would be low flying aircraft and cruise missiles, so Barak is a much better option. The Barak alongside QRSAMs can provide better defence against such sneaky tactics than the S400 can.

Didn't people claim that S-400 was getting delayed as Indian deal would include S-500 tech unlike the Chinese deal?

Of course IN would be the first line of defense but India should plan multi-layer defense. There is no guarantee that the naval defenses won't be breached.
 
AMCA is awaiting the successful conclusion of the LCA program.

Why should AMCA wait for LCA?

LCA is a 4th gen fighter while AMCA is supposed to be 5th gen fighter.

What India needed was the Rafale and FGFA deals which could have helped India kick start the AMCA program.
 
The main problem is that this deal is too little and too late.

As China is inducting S-400s this year, India is still negotiating and would be waiting in line behind Turkey, Saudis, Qatar etc. to induct these systems as and when India closes this deal. India should have been the first customer with the history of Indo-Russian relations but Modi screwed it (intentional?)

Also, India should have gone for at least 15 instead of just 5 units.

So the coverage would be like this

View attachment 2165

instead of something like this

View attachment 2164

Kashmir and Arunachal wont get it. It might be based near Sikkim or Assam-WB border to cover Kolkata and other regions. Gujarat wont have it. Instead it will be Mumbai. And another will be based in btw Bangalore-Chennai to protect Defence Installations, Kalpakkam(where reportedly nukes are made), ISRO center etc. One will be for protecting Delhi, Chennai-Bangalore Corridor, Another Mumbai. Rest 2 are just pure speculations in my speculations :p

Other areas will get BMD shield, Barak and Akash SAMs.
 
We don't need S400 for the south and central regions. At that range, the SAM is useless. We need Phase II BMD for the South in particular.

Personally, I think most of the S400s will be centered around Delhi and Mumbai, 2 systems each. 1 each in Delhi and Mumbai, and 1 each in Punjab and Gujarat.

And 1 system will likely protect any one of IAF's strategic bases.

South has the most defence industries based on. One attack on Bangalore and Indian defence industry is gone. Another in Chennai, Kalpakkam and ISRO center is gone. Since distance btw Chennai-Bangalore is 300 km, one unit is required to protect both. Mumbai and Delhi definitely needs one. One in East. One is for Rajasthan-Punjab plains region(probably).
 
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India should focus heavier on SAM versus aircraft for right now. Can't possibly match China's aircraft numbers but SAM sites are a problem for everyone.

Israeli's lost some 100 + aircraft before they cracked it.

I generally want to see India go more western, but India needs 10+ S-400's.
 
India should focus heavier on SAM versus aircraft for right now. Can't possibly match China's aircraft numbers but SAM sites are a problem for everyone.

Israeli's lost some 100 + aircraft before they cracked it.

I generally want to see India go more western, but India needs 10+ S-400's.
Phase 2 BMD will include multirole interceptor missiles and then we have XRSAM also...
 
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South has the most defence industries based on. One attack on Bangalore and Indian defence industry is gone. Another in Chennai, Kalpakkam and ISRO center is gone. Since distance btw Chennai-Bangalore is 300 km, one unit is required to protect both. Mumbai and Delhi definitely needs one. One in East. One is for Rajasthan-Punjab plains region(probably).

South India can only be attacked with very long range missiles. The S-400 is good enough to protect Delhi and to a certain extent, Mumbai. But to protect the South, we need far more capable SAMs and those don't exist anywhere in the world today.

If the S-400 is deployed in the South, it will just uselessly sit there. It can provide protection against Pakistani missiles, but other than that, it will be pretty useless. What we need in the South is the ability to stop missiles fired from 5000Km away. The Phase I Indian BMD is good against missiles fired from 2500Km away, while the S-400 is good against missiles from 3500Km away. That's why we need S-500 or Phase II.

Any S-400 deployment in the South will be for protection against Pakistani missiles, not against Chinese.
 
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India should focus heavier on SAM versus aircraft for right now. Can't possibly match China's aircraft numbers but SAM sites are a problem for everyone.

Israeli's lost some 100 + aircraft before they cracked it.

I generally want to see India go more western, but India needs 10+ S-400's.

Western SAMs are not as good as Russian SAMs.

We have our own programs for SAMs at all levels. In about 5 years, we will not have to import anymore SAMs.